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Toledo

Season: 2026-2027 2025-2026 2024-2025 2023-2024 2022-2023 2021-2022 2020-2021 2019-2020 2018-2019 2017-2018
Also known as: Toledo Rockets
Program History
Coach: Ginny Boggess

2026-2027 Team Stats (2 games)

60.5
PPG
66.5
Opp
-6.0
Margin
38.2%
FG%
22.4%
3P%
69.6%
FT%
40.5
RPG
12.5
APG
18.5
TO
75.1
Est. poss./game
57.0
Adj PPG
59.4
Adj Opp PPG
#123
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2026-2027
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. Preseason prior 1140 (returning production + recruiting): last season 1066, returning +72, transfers +2, freshmen +0 More → 1088 (#114) Preseason prior 1140 (returning production + recruiting): last season 1066, returning +72, transfers +2, freshmen +0
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. HCA +190 elo More → 1056 (#116) HCA +190 elo
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +189 elo More → 1010 (#143) HCA +189 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.8 More → +8.6 (#91) HCA +3.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.8 More → +8.4 (#91) HCA +3.8
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.560 (#142) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +5.2 More → 0.647 (#106) AdjNet +5.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +5.7 More → 0.652 (#106) AdjNet +5.7
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 57.0 | AdjD 59.4 More → 0.566 (#123) AdjO 57.0 | AdjD 59.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 57.0 | AdjD 59.5 More → 0.537 (#135) AdjO 57.0 | AdjD 59.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.613 (#113) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.608 (#114) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 197 | GP 2 More → 1043 (#128) RD 197 | GP 2
Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. Chronological component blend with rest and venue. More → 0.636 (#118) Chronological component blend with rest and venue.

2026-2027 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2026-11-02 vs Louisiana Tech Lady Techsters L 57 - 61
2026-11-07 vs Michigan State Spartans L 64 - 72
2026-11-10 vs Youngstown State Penguins - Preview
2026-11-15 vs Valparaiso Beacons - Preview

2026-2027 Roster

Estimated Minutes by Position

Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Jyah LoVett Jyah LoVett G 2 27.5 13.5 4.5 3.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 14.0 5.0 2 2 1.0 1.5 42.9 0.0 75.0 1.41 45.4 42.9
Kendall Carruthers Kendall Carruthers G 2 30.5 13.5 3.5 4.0 2.0 0.5 3.5 10.0 10.0 -11 2 -5.5 -7.1 45.0 50.0 66.7 0.56 56.3 52.5
Ella Weaver Ella Weaver G 2 34.5 12.0 3.0 0.5 2.0 0.0 1.5 13.5 2.5 1 2 0.5 0.6 29.6 26.3 75.0 2.4 41.7 38.9
Natiah Nelson Natiah Nelson G 2 27.5 7.0 6.5 0.5 0.0 0.5 4.5 8.5 1.5 - - - - 41.2 0.0 0 - 41.2 41.2
Evalyse Cole Evalyse Cole PF 2 27.5 7.0 8.5 2.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 5.0 12.5 -2 2 -1.0 -1.5 60.0 0.0 66.7 1.98 61.8 60.0
Kiera Edmonds Kiera Edmonds F 2 9.5 3.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 -7 2 -3.5 -14.9 50.0 0 66.7 -0.69 56.4 50.0
Reagan Wilson Reagan Wilson G 2 17.5 3.0 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 1.5 6.5 0.0 11 2 5.5 12.6 15.4 16.7 0 1.7 23.1 23.1
Destiny Robinson Destiny Robinson G 2 10.0 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.5 0.0 -19 2 -9.5 -39.3 33.3 50.0 0 -3.12 50.0 50.0
Gabby Helsom Gabby Helsom G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Judit Oliva Fernandez Judit Oliva Fernandez F 2 7.5 0.0 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.5 6 2 3.0 16.3 0.0 0.0 0 -1.72 0.0 0.0
Miriam Diala Miriam Diala F 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Faith Fedd-Robinson Faith Fedd-Robinson G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Lizzy Puot Lizzy Puot F 2 8.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -4 2 -2.0 -9.1 0 0 0 -3.28 0 0
Camryn VandenBosch Camryn VandenBosch G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2026-2027 Shot Zones

123 located field-goal attempts in 2 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

LoVett33% LoVett40% Carruthers100% Cole100% Weaver50% Robinson100% Weaver50% Carruthers67% Weaver67%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Nelson32% Weaver20% LoVett100% LoVett75% Wilson60% Carruthers33% Weaver71% Weaver46%
Misses: who misses most here

Jyah LoVettElla WeaverKendall CarruthersNatiah NelsonEvalyse ColeReagan WilsonDestiny Robinson

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 24-46 52.2 48 Jyah LoVett 33% (16 pts) Evalyse Cole 21% (10 pts) Natiah Nelson 32% (7 misses) Jyah LoVett 23% (5 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 10-25 40.0 20 Jyah LoVett 40% (8 pts) Kendall Carruthers 20% (4 pts) Ella Weaver 20% (3 misses) Jyah LoVett 20% (3 misses)
Mid-range left 1-1 100.0 2 Kendall Carruthers 100% (2 pts) - - -
Mid-range center 0-0 - 0 - - - -
Mid-range right 1-2 50.0 2 Evalyse Cole 100% (2 pts) - Jyah LoVett 100% (1 misses) -
Left corner 3 2-6 33.3 6 Ella Weaver 50% (3 pts) Reagan Wilson 50% (3 pts) Jyah LoVett 75% (3 misses) Reagan Wilson 25% (1 misses)
Right corner 3 1-6 16.7 3 Destiny Robinson 100% (3 pts) - Reagan Wilson 60% (3 misses) Ella Weaver 20% (1 misses)
Above-break 3 left 2-11 18.2 6 Ella Weaver 50% (3 pts) Kendall Carruthers 50% (3 pts) Kendall Carruthers 33% (3 misses) Reagan Wilson 33% (3 misses)
Above-break 3 center 3-10 30.0 9 Kendall Carruthers 67% (6 pts) Ella Weaver 33% (3 pts) Ella Weaver 71% (5 misses) Evalyse Cole 14% (1 misses)
Above-break 3 right 3-16 18.8 9 Ella Weaver 67% (6 pts) Reagan Wilson 33% (3 pts) Ella Weaver 46% (6 misses) Jyah LoVett 31% (4 misses)