Toledo
2026-2027 Team Stats (3 games)
61.7
PPG
64.3
Opp
-2.7
Margin
39.4%
FG%
25.0%
3P%
58.3%
FT%
42.0
RPG
12.7
APG
17.0
TO
73.9
Est. poss./game
59.8
Adj PPG
58.9
Adj Opp PPG
#118
Scoring Rank
Model Outputs
2026-2027
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1113 (#109) | Preseason prior 1140 (returning production + recruiting): last season 1066, returning +72, transfers +2, freshmen +0 |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1053 (#116) | HCA +169 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1052 (#116) | HCA +169 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +12.8 (#74) | HCA +1.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +12.8 (#74) | HCA +1.6 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.576 (#136) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.708 (#91) | AdjNet +9.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.714 (#92) | AdjNet +9.8 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.586 (#118) | AdjO 59.8 | AdjD 58.9 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.586 (#118) | AdjO 59.9 | AdjD 59.0 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.658 (#103) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.657 (#103) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1061 (#121) | RD 184 | GP 3 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | 0.655 (#109) | Chronological component blend with rest and venue. |
Rank through the season
League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.
Recency Ensemble
Log Adjusted
Elo
Points Off/Def Recency
2026-2027 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | vs | Louisiana Tech Lady Techsters | L | 57 - 61 |
| 2026-11-07 | vs | Michigan State Spartans | L | 64 - 72 |
| 2026-11-10 | vs | Youngstown State Penguins | W | 64 - 60 |
| 2026-11-15 | vs | Valparaiso Beacons | - | Preview |
| 2026-11-19 | @ | Detroit Mercy Titans | - | Preview |
2026-2027 Roster
Estimated Minutes by Position
Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kendall Carruthers
|
G | 3 | 30.7 | 14.0 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 12.7 | 7.3 | -11 | 3 | -3.7 | -4.7 | 42.1 | 44.4 | 66.7 | 0.38 | 50.0 | 47.4 |
Jyah LoVett
|
G | 3 | 28.0 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 13.3 | 6.3 | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 42.5 | 10.0 | 50.0 | 1.63 | 44.6 | 43.8 |
Evalyse Cole
|
PF | 3 | 26.0 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 6.7 | 13.3 | 9 | 3 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 40.0 | 3.41 | 58.6 | 60.0 |
Ella Weaver
|
G | 3 | 34.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 8 | 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 29.0 | 23.8 | 75.0 | 3.23 | 39.7 | 37.1 |
Natiah Nelson
|
G | 3 | 25.3 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 8.7 | 2.7 | - | - | - | - | 34.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | 34.0 | 34.6 |
Reagan Wilson
|
G | 3 | 18.3 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 13 | 3 | 4.3 | 9.6 | 31.6 | 29.4 | 50.0 | 1.62 | 45.3 | 44.7 |
Kiera Edmonds
|
F | 3 | 11.7 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 6.0 | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 57.1 | 0 | 71.4 | 0.37 | 64.5 | 57.1 |
Destiny Robinson
|
G | 3 | 12.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | -24 | 3 | -8.0 | -26.1 | 25.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | -3.52 | 41.0 | 37.5 |
Gabby Helsom
|
G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Judit Oliva Fernandez
|
F | 3 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Miriam Diala
|
F | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Faith Fedd-Robinson
|
G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Lizzy Puot
|
F | 3 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | -7 | 3 | -2.3 | -14.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.55 | 0 | 0 |
Camryn VandenBosch
|
G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG
2026-2027 Shot Zones
188 located field-goal attempts in 3 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).
Kendall CarruthersJyah LoVettEvalyse ColeElla WeaverNatiah NelsonReagan WilsonDestiny Robinson
| Zone | FGM-FGA | FG% | Pts | Top scorer | Runner-up | Most misses | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restricted area | 39-73 | 53.4 | 78 | Jyah LoVett 28% (22 pts) | Evalyse Cole 26% (20 pts) | Natiah Nelson 32% (11 misses) | Kendall Carruthers 26% (9 misses) |
| Paint (non-RA) | 14-41 | 34.1 | 28 | Jyah LoVett 29% (8 pts) | Kendall Carruthers 21% (6 pts) | Jyah LoVett 26% (7 misses) | Kendall Carruthers 19% (5 misses) |
| Mid-range left | 2-3 | 66.7 | 4 | Kendall Carruthers 100% (4 pts) | - | Kendall Carruthers 100% (1 misses) | - |
| Mid-range center | 1-3 | 33.3 | 2 | Jyah LoVett 100% (2 pts) | - | Destiny Robinson 50% (1 misses) | Kendall Carruthers 50% (1 misses) |
| Mid-range right | 2-4 | 50.0 | 4 | Evalyse Cole 50% (2 pts) | Reagan Wilson 50% (2 pts) | Jyah LoVett 50% (1 misses) | Kendall Carruthers 50% (1 misses) |
| Left corner 3 | 3-7 | 42.9 | 9 | Ella Weaver 33% (3 pts) | Jyah LoVett 33% (3 pts) | Jyah LoVett 75% (3 misses) | Reagan Wilson 25% (1 misses) |
| Right corner 3 | 1-8 | 12.5 | 3 | Destiny Robinson 100% (3 pts) | - | Reagan Wilson 57% (4 misses) | Ella Weaver 14% (1 misses) |
| Above-break 3 left | 5-18 | 27.8 | 15 | Kendall Carruthers 40% (6 pts) | Reagan Wilson 40% (6 pts) | Reagan Wilson 31% (4 misses) | Ella Weaver 23% (3 misses) |
| Above-break 3 center | 4-11 | 36.4 | 12 | Kendall Carruthers 50% (6 pts) | Ella Weaver 25% (3 pts) | Ella Weaver 71% (5 misses) | Evalyse Cole 14% (1 misses) |
| Above-break 3 right | 3-20 | 15.0 | 9 | Ella Weaver 67% (6 pts) | Reagan Wilson 33% (3 pts) | Ella Weaver 41% (7 misses) | Jyah LoVett 29% (5 misses) |