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The Citadel

Season: 2026-2027 2025-2026 2024-2025 2023-2024 2022-2023 2021-2022 2020-2021 2019-2020 2018-2019 2017-2018
Also known as: The Citadel Bulldogs
Program History
Coach: Ed Conroy

2026-2027 Team Stats (3 games)

94.3
PPG
61.3
Opp
+33.0
Margin
54.3%
FG%
41.4%
3P%
66.0%
FT%
45.3
RPG
23.7
APG
14.0
TO
72.3
Est. poss./game
61.5
Adj PPG
68.7
Adj Opp PPG
#332
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2026-2027
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. Preseason prior 730 (returning production + recruiting): last season 843, returning -20, transfers -70, freshmen -23 More → 722 (#331) Preseason prior 730 (returning production + recruiting): last season 843, returning -20, transfers -70, freshmen -23
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. HCA +212 elo More → 838 (#341) HCA +212 elo
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +212 elo More → 917 (#331) HCA +212 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.0 More → -16.6 (#346) HCA +2.0
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.0 More → -16.3 (#347) HCA +2.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.135 (#319) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -16.5 More → 0.279 (#309) AdjNet -16.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -15.9 More → 0.280 (#306) AdjNet -15.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 61.5 | AdjD 68.7 More → 0.294 (#332) AdjO 61.5 | AdjD 68.7
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 61.5 | AdjD 68.7 More → 0.347 (#318) AdjO 61.5 | AdjD 68.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.242 (#337) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.251 (#337) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 222 | GP 1 More → 820 (#332) RD 222 | GP 1
Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. Chronological component blend with rest and venue. More → 0.157 (#358) Chronological component blend with rest and venue.

2026-2027 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2026-11-02 @ Loyola Chicago Ramblers L 52 - 77
2026-11-06 vs Erskine Flying Fleet W 100 - 57
2026-11-10 vs Virginia Lynchburg Dragons W 131 - 50
2026-11-14 @ North Florida Ospreys - Preview
2026-11-16 @ Clemson Tigers - Preview

2026-2027 Roster

Estimated Minutes by Position

Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Tyler Mrus Tyler Mrus F 3 20.3 17.7 5.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.7 12.3 10.7 78 3 26.0 51.5 51.4 46.4 100.0 1.26 70.0 68.9
Aaron Ekwere Aaron Ekwere F 3 23.0 12.3 5.7 4.0 2.7 1.3 2.7 5.7 17.7 62 3 20.7 35.9 88.2 50.0 66.7 1.02 88.3 91.2
Keynan Davis Keynan Davis G 3 22.3 11.3 4.7 1.0 0.7 0.0 0.7 8.3 8.7 38 3 12.7 22.8 40.0 25.0 83.3 -0.76 56.1 48.0
Joe Hurlburt Joe Hurlburt G 1 23.0 11.0 7.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 5.0 11.0 -3 1 -3.0 -5.1 80.0 100.0 0.0 -0.46 101.1 110.0
Chase Cormier Chase Cormier G 3 20.3 8.7 2.3 2.3 0.7 0.0 0.7 6.7 6.7 50 3 16.7 33.2 45.0 47.1 0 0.06 65.0 65.0
Marcus Banks Marcus Banks G 3 23.0 8.3 2.7 6.7 0.7 0.0 2.0 7.3 9.0 73 3 24.3 42.7 40.9 0.0 87.5 1.21 49.0 40.9
Eddrin Bronson Eddrin Bronson G 1 27.0 8.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 6.0 3.0 -14 1 -14.0 -20.4 50.0 33.3 50.0 -1.92 58.1 58.3
Ja'Yon Alexander Ja'Yon Alexander G 3 6.3 6.7 2.3 0.3 1.0 0.0 0.3 4.3 5.7 22 3 7.3 59.6 61.5 80.0 0 0.11 76.9 76.9
Yaw Ansong Yaw Ansong C 2 5.5 6.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 4.0 1 1 1.0 5.4 85.7 0 0 -0.62 85.7 85.7
Marcos Gonzales Marcos Gonzales G 3 20.7 5.7 3.7 2.7 1.0 0.3 1.7 4.7 7.0 3 3 1.0 2.0 50.0 20.0 33.3 -2.96 51.1 53.6
Ramel Bethea Ramel Bethea F 3 20.7 4.7 6.0 0.3 0.7 3.3 1.0 4.0 10.0 56 3 18.7 36.6 50.0 33.3 33.3 0.0 52.6 54.2
Logan Menefee Logan Menefee F 3 6.3 4.3 2.3 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.0 2.7 5.0 32 3 10.7 66.1 75.0 0.0 33.3 0.17 69.7 75.0
Aidan Alexander Aidan Alexander F 2 3.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 2.0 10 1 10.0 103.0 100.0 0 100.0 -0.61 104.2 100.0
Jameson Heck Jameson Heck G 2 9.0 2.0 0.5 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 37 2 18.5 88.8 50.0 0.0 0 0.04 50.0 50.0
Jack Seiders Jack Seiders F 2 5.0 1.5 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 1.5 17 1 17.0 94.0 25.0 0.0 50.0 0.06 30.7 25.0
Cassius Bonjasky Cassius Bonjasky F 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 - 0 0
Colin McKenzie Colin McKenzie G 2 6.5 0.0 2.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.5 18 1 18.0 80.7 0.0 0.0 0 -0.39 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2026-2027 Shot Zones

197 located field-goal attempts in 3 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Ekwere25% Alexander25% Banks67% Alexander100% Cormier67% Mrus75% Mrus36% Hurlburt50% Mrus45%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Banks23% Banks50% Banks100% Hurlburt100% Cormier100% Mrus60% Mrus43% Cormier18% Mrus31% Davis47%
Misses: who misses most here

Tyler MrusAaron EkwereChase CormierKeynan DavisJa'Yon AlexanderMarcus BanksJoe Hurlburt

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 55-81 67.9 110 Aaron Ekwere 25% (28 pts) Logan Menefee 11% (12 pts) Marcus Banks 23% (6 misses) Ramel Bethea 15% (4 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 12-22 54.5 24 Ja'Yon Alexander 25% (6 pts) Keynan Davis 17% (4 pts) Marcus Banks 50% (5 misses) Ja'Yon Alexander 20% (2 misses)
Mid-range left 3-4 75.0 6 Marcus Banks 67% (4 pts) Keynan Davis 33% (2 pts) Marcus Banks 100% (1 misses) -
Mid-range center 0-1 0.0 0 - - Joe Hurlburt 100% (1 misses) -
Mid-range right 1-2 50.0 2 Ja'Yon Alexander 100% (2 pts) - Chase Cormier 100% (1 misses) -
Left corner 3 6-11 54.5 18 Chase Cormier 67% (12 pts) Ja'Yon Alexander 17% (3 pts) Tyler Mrus 60% (3 misses) Chase Cormier 20% (1 misses)
Right corner 3 4-11 36.4 12 Tyler Mrus 75% (9 pts) Eddrin Bronson 25% (3 pts) Tyler Mrus 43% (3 misses) Chase Cormier 29% (2 misses)
Above-break 3 left 11-22 50.0 33 Tyler Mrus 36% (12 pts) Chase Cormier 27% (9 pts) Chase Cormier 18% (2 misses) Keynan Davis 18% (2 misses)
Above-break 3 center 4-17 23.5 12 Joe Hurlburt 50% (6 pts) Ramel Bethea 25% (3 pts) Tyler Mrus 31% (4 misses) Keynan Davis 15% (2 misses)
Above-break 3 right 11-26 42.3 33 Tyler Mrus 45% (15 pts) Keynan Davis 27% (9 pts) Keynan Davis 47% (7 misses) Chase Cormier 20% (3 misses)