Texas-Dallas
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1013 (#171) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 865 (#480) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 933 (#504) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +4.8 (#174) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +0.4 (#321) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.654 (#251) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.991 (#87) | NetEff +43.5 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.569 (#381) | AdjNet +2.4 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.575 (#377) | AdjNet +2.6 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.541 (#386) | AdjO 78.4 | AdjD 76.5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.482 (#341) | AdjO 74.4 | AdjD 75.2 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.448 (#355) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.453 (#351) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 909 (#337) | RD 108 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Westminster (UT) | L | 62 - 75 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Westminster (UT) | L | 81 - 90 |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | Colo. Sch. of Mines | L | 56 - 85 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Regis (CO) | L | 93 - 97 |
| 2025-11-26 | vs | East Central | L | 57 - 67 |
| 2025-11-28 | vs | Southern Ark. | L | 79 - 100 |
| 2025-11-29 | vs | Adams St. | L | 86 - 87 |
| 2025-12-11 | vs | Eastern N.M. | L | 83 - 90 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | West Tex. A&M | L | 92 - 94 |
| 2025-12-18 | @ | Sul Ross St. | W | 91 - 80 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | Western N.M. | L | 65 - 70 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Dallas Christian | W | 95 - 66 |
| 2026-01-08 | vs | Tex. A&M-Kingsville | W | 96 - 58 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Tex. A&M Int'l | W | 68 - 42 |
| 2026-01-15 | @ | Angelo St. | W | 65 - 53 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | UT Permian Basin | L | 70 - 78 |
| 2026-01-22 | vs | Western N.M. | L | 77 - 89 |
| 2026-01-29 | @ | St. Edward's | L | 73 - 91 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | St. Mary's (TX) | L | 63 - 81 |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Lubbock Christian | L | 60 - 86 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Midwestern St. | W | 75 - 74 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden Jefferson | - | 9 | 29.8 | 19.0 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 13.3 | 13.6 | - | - | - | 50.8 | 41.7 | 63.3 | - | 64.2 | 63.3 |
| Hudson Goellner | - | 20 | 23.0 | 11.8 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 10.5 | 7.5 | -15 | -0.8 | -5.2 | 43.8 | 20.7 | 57.5 | -3.8 | 48.1 | 45.2 |
| Peyton Dulin | - | 21 | 28.5 | 11.4 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 13 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 36.7 | 26.8 | 75.9 | -2.52 | 48.5 | 44.1 |
| Jordan Balderaz | - | 21 | 19.5 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 5.6 | 10.1 | -48 | -2.2 | -15.6 | 49.6 | 44.8 | 67.1 | -0.01 | 59.5 | 55.1 |
| Jacob Smithey | - | 21 | 13.6 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 5.3 | 3.6 | -31 | -1.5 | -21.4 | 41.1 | 32.0 | 66.7 | -5.44 | 51.9 | 48.2 |
| Matthew Soto | - | 21 | 17.6 | 6.1 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 4.6 | 4.0 | -14 | -0.7 | -3.7 | 41.2 | 39.4 | 87.0 | -1.47 | 59.7 | 55.7 |
| Bryce Potts | - | 21 | 14.7 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 30 | 1.4 | 12.0 | 59.3 | 36.4 | 67.7 | 0.73 | 63.7 | 61.6 |
| Kris White | - | 19 | 21.9 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 37 | 1.9 | 9.7 | 37.1 | 28.1 | 92.9 | -0.72 | 49.0 | 45.7 |
| Zach Spitzer | - | 21 | 22.7 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 4.5 | 8.5 | 63 | 3.0 | 17.1 | 44.7 | 32.2 | 55.6 | 1.53 | 55.4 | 54.8 |
| Will Warren | - | 20 | 13.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | -19 | -0.9 | -8.1 | 36.6 | 34.1 | 46.7 | -0.82 | 45.7 | 45.1 |
| Jared Robins | - | 7 | 9.6 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | -2 | -0.3 | -3.4 | 33.3 | 27.8 | 0 | 0.28 | 42.6 | 42.6 |
| Everett Bates | - | 17 | 8.1 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 2.1 | -4 | -0.2 | -3.9 | 36.4 | 29.4 | 65.0 | -0.59 | 55.2 | 47.7 |
| KJ Williams | - | 7 | 8.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 3.1 | -1.0 | -24 | -3.4 | -83.6 | 13.6 | 0.0 | 75.0 | 0.79 | 18.9 | 13.6 |
| Christian O'Connor | - | 12 | 6.2 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | - | - | - | 18.8 | 0.0 | 25.0 | - | 19.7 | 18.8 |
| Jaelyn Rivera | - | 1 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3 | 0.2 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.19 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG