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Texas-Dallas

Also known as: Texas-Dallas
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1013 (#171) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 865 (#480) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 933 (#504) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +4.8 (#174) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +0.4 (#321) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.654 (#251) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +43.5 More → 0.991 (#87) NetEff +43.5
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +2.4 More → 0.569 (#381) AdjNet +2.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +2.6 More → 0.575 (#377) AdjNet +2.6
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 78.4 | AdjD 76.5 More → 0.541 (#386) AdjO 78.4 | AdjD 76.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 74.4 | AdjD 75.2 More → 0.482 (#341) AdjO 74.4 | AdjD 75.2
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.448 (#355) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.453 (#351) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 108 | GP 21 More → 909 (#337) RD 108 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 @ Westminster (UT) L 62 - 75
2025-11-15 @ Westminster (UT) L 81 - 90
2025-11-21 @ Colo. Sch. of Mines L 56 - 85
2025-11-22 @ Regis (CO) L 93 - 97
2025-11-26 vs East Central L 57 - 67
2025-11-28 vs Southern Ark. L 79 - 100
2025-11-29 vs Adams St. L 86 - 87
2025-12-11 vs Eastern N.M. L 83 - 90
2025-12-13 vs West Tex. A&M L 92 - 94
2025-12-18 @ Sul Ross St. W 91 - 80
2025-12-20 @ Western N.M. L 65 - 70
2026-01-03 vs Dallas Christian W 95 - 66
2026-01-08 vs Tex. A&M-Kingsville W 96 - 58
2026-01-10 vs Tex. A&M Int'l W 68 - 42
2026-01-15 @ Angelo St. W 65 - 53
2026-01-17 @ UT Permian Basin L 70 - 78
2026-01-22 vs Western N.M. L 77 - 89
2026-01-29 @ St. Edward's L 73 - 91
2026-01-31 @ St. Mary's (TX) L 63 - 81
2026-02-05 vs Lubbock Christian L 60 - 86
2026-02-07 vs Midwestern St. W 75 - 74

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Jaden Jefferson - 9 29.8 19.0 4.2 3.3 1.9 1.0 2.6 13.3 13.6 - - - 50.8 41.7 63.3 - 64.2 63.3
Hudson Goellner - 20 23.0 11.8 5.8 1.1 0.7 0.6 1.9 10.5 7.5 -15 -0.8 -5.2 43.8 20.7 57.5 -3.8 48.1 45.2
Peyton Dulin - 21 28.5 11.4 3.3 4.8 2.1 0.3 2.2 10.5 9.2 13 0.6 2.6 36.7 26.8 75.9 -2.52 48.5 44.1
Jordan Balderaz - 21 19.5 8.4 5.6 2.0 0.7 0.3 1.3 5.6 10.1 -48 -2.2 -15.6 49.6 44.8 67.1 -0.01 59.5 55.1
Jacob Smithey - 21 13.6 6.4 2.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 1.0 5.3 3.6 -31 -1.5 -21.4 41.1 32.0 66.7 -5.44 51.9 48.2
Matthew Soto - 21 17.6 6.1 0.8 2.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 4.6 4.0 -14 -0.7 -3.7 41.2 39.4 87.0 -1.47 59.7 55.7
Bryce Potts - 21 14.7 6.0 2.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 1.2 4.1 4.7 30 1.4 12.0 59.3 36.4 67.7 0.73 63.7 61.6
Kris White - 19 21.9 5.7 3.4 1.8 0.6 0.5 1.3 5.5 5.2 37 1.9 9.7 37.1 28.1 92.9 -0.72 49.0 45.7
Zach Spitzer - 21 22.7 5.4 5.6 1.2 0.4 1.0 0.7 4.5 8.5 63 3.0 17.1 44.7 32.2 55.6 1.53 55.4 54.8
Will Warren - 20 13.4 4.0 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.6 4.1 2.4 -19 -0.9 -8.1 36.6 34.1 46.7 -0.82 45.7 45.1
Jared Robins - 7 9.6 3.3 1.7 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 3.9 1.6 -2 -0.3 -3.4 33.3 27.8 0 0.28 42.6 42.6
Everett Bates - 17 8.1 2.0 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.9 1.3 2.1 -4 -0.2 -3.9 36.4 29.4 65.0 -0.59 55.2 47.7
KJ Williams - 7 8.2 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 3.1 -1.0 -24 -3.4 -83.6 13.6 0.0 75.0 0.79 18.9 13.6
Christian O'Connor - 12 6.2 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.2 - - - 18.8 0.0 25.0 - 19.7 18.8
Jaelyn Rivera - 1 1.9 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 3 0.2 6.9 0.0 0.0 0 -0.19 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG