Texas State
2026-2027 Team Stats (3 games)
79.3
PPG
49.7
Opp
+29.7
Margin
49.7%
FG%
38.2%
3P%
73.4%
FT%
36.7
RPG
12.7
APG
12.7
TO
69.1
Est. poss./game
65.7
Adj PPG
55.8
Adj Opp PPG
#89
Scoring Rank
Model Outputs
2026-2027
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1078 (#121) | Preseason prior 1057 (returning production + recruiting): last season 896, returning +36, transfers +126, freshmen +0 |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1072 (#107) | HCA +169 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1071 (#107) | HCA +169 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +7.4 (#107) | HCA +1.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +7.4 (#108) | HCA +1.6 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.922 (#54) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.702 (#94) | AdjNet +13.7 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.703 (#96) | AdjNet +13.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.659 (#89) | AdjO 65.7 | AdjD 55.8 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.658 (#89) | AdjO 65.6 | AdjD 55.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.675 (#98) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.675 (#98) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1092 (#102) | RD 182 | GP 3 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | 0.668 (#103) | Chronological component blend with rest and venue. |
Rank through the season
League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.
Recency Ensemble
Log Adjusted
Elo
Points Off/Def Recency
2026-2027 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | vs | Long Island University Sharks | W | 69 - 51 |
| 2026-11-07 | @ | Chicago State Cougars | W | 106 - 51 |
| 2026-11-13 | vs | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders | W | 63 - 47 |
| 2026-11-17 | @ | Incarnate Word Cardinals | - | Preview |
| 2026-11-20 | @ | Lamar Cardinals | - | Preview |
2026-2027 Roster
Estimated Minutes by Position
Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Saniya Burks
|
G | 2 | 28.0 | 21.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 14.5 | 9.5 | 49 | 3 | 16.3 | 24.1 | 44.8 | 40.0 | 100.0 | -0.24 | 64.6 | 58.6 |
Crystal Henderson
|
G | 2 | 30.5 | 20.5 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 12.0 | 13.5 | 48 | 3 | 16.0 | 21.4 | 58.3 | 60.0 | 90.9 | 0.95 | 71.1 | 64.6 |
Kyra Anderson
|
F | 2 | 18.5 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 35 | 3 | 11.7 | 28.6 | 61.1 | 0 | 100.0 | 1.33 | 65.8 | 61.1 |
Sofia Ceppellotti
|
F | 2 | 30.5 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 12.5 | 55 | 3 | 18.3 | 24.3 | 60.0 | 55.6 | 0.0 | 0.03 | 81.4 | 85.0 |
Emma Pique
|
G | 2 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 20 | 3 | 6.7 | 27.0 | 57.1 | 100.0 | 50.0 | -0.13 | 74.2 | 78.6 |
Lay Fantroy
|
G | 2 | 20.5 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 5.0 | 8.5 | 44 | 3 | 14.7 | 27.4 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 33.3 | 0.61 | 48.6 | 50.0 |
Kaliyah Murphy
|
F | 1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 7 | 1 | 7.0 | 57.1 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.21 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Hayden Hearst
|
F | 2 | 16.0 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 18 | 3 | 6.0 | 17.4 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 75.0 | -1.48 | 51.8 | 40.0 |
Addison Carr
|
C | 2 | 16.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 8.0 | 31 | 3 | 10.3 | 24.2 | 40.0 | 0 | 50.0 | 0.77 | 44.4 | 40.0 |
Aliyah Carter
|
G | 2 | 9.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 21 | 3 | 7.0 | 40.1 | 60.0 | 0 | 0 | 1.88 | 60.0 | 60.0 |
Makenna Shaffer-Lauer
|
G | 2 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 14 | 3 | 4.7 | 27.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -1.28 | 34.7 | 0.0 |
Cali Denson
|
G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Lucija Milkovic
|
C | 2 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | -1.0 | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 11.4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -3.31 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG
2026-2027 Shot Zones
114 located field-goal attempts in 2 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).
Crystal HendersonSaniya BurksSofia CeppellottiEmma PiqueLay FantroyAliyah CarterHayden Hearst
| Zone | FGM-FGA | FG% | Pts | Top scorer | Runner-up | Most misses | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restricted area | 32-46 | 69.6 | 64 | Crystal Henderson 28% (18 pts) | Kyra Anderson 28% (18 pts) | Crystal Henderson 36% (5 misses) | Kyra Anderson 29% (4 misses) |
| Paint (non-RA) | 8-21 | 38.1 | 16 | Crystal Henderson 25% (4 pts) | Kyra Anderson 25% (4 pts) | Crystal Henderson 23% (3 misses) | Addison Carr 15% (2 misses) |
| Mid-range left | 3-8 | 37.5 | 6 | Aliyah Carter 33% (2 pts) | Hayden Hearst 33% (2 pts) | Hayden Hearst 40% (2 misses) | Saniya Burks 40% (2 misses) |
| Mid-range center | 0-0 | - | 0 | - | - | - | - |
| Mid-range right | 0-1 | 0.0 | 0 | - | - | Aliyah Carter 100% (1 misses) | - |
| Left corner 3 | 3-8 | 37.5 | 9 | Emma Pique 67% (6 pts) | Crystal Henderson 33% (3 pts) | Lay Fantroy 40% (2 misses) | Saniya Burks 40% (2 misses) |
| Right corner 3 | 2-5 | 40.0 | 6 | Sofia Ceppellotti 100% (6 pts) | - | Crystal Henderson 33% (1 misses) | Hayden Hearst 33% (1 misses) |
| Above-break 3 left | 4-9 | 44.4 | 12 | Saniya Burks 100% (12 pts) | - | Saniya Burks 60% (3 misses) | Crystal Henderson 20% (1 misses) |
| Above-break 3 center | 1-7 | 14.3 | 3 | Emma Pique 100% (3 pts) | - | Saniya Burks 83% (5 misses) | Sofia Ceppellotti 17% (1 misses) |
| Above-break 3 right | 5-9 | 55.6 | 15 | Saniya Burks 40% (6 pts) | Sofia Ceppellotti 40% (6 pts) | Sofia Ceppellotti 50% (2 misses) | Makenna Shaffer-Lauer 25% (1 misses) |