Texas Lutheran
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1052 (#129) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1147 (#88) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1146 (#57) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +16.4 (#50) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +9.1 (#217) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.882 (#255) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.889 (#171) | NetEff +15.5 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.892 (#217) | AdjNet +18.3 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.890 (#221) | AdjNet +17.7 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.736 (#214) | AdjO 68.5 | AdjD 57.2 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.717 (#111) | AdjO 70.5 | AdjD 60.3 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.769 (#153) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.770 (#147) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1172 (#86) | RD 104 | GP 20 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | @ | Hardin-Simmons | W | 72 - 66 |
| 2025-11-08 | @ | Howard Payne | W | 72 - 52 |
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Caltech | W | 68 - 37 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Cal Lutheran | L | 67 - 70 |
| 2025-11-17 | @ | Occidental | W | 75 - 54 |
| 2025-11-30 | @ | Mary Hardin-Baylor | L | 65 - 76 |
| 2025-12-01 | vs | Hardin-Simmons | L | 54 - 57 |
| 2025-12-10 | vs | Mary Hardin-Baylor | W | 68 - 52 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Hendrix | W | 89 - 56 |
| 2026-01-16 | vs | Schreiner | W | 71 - 52 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | McMurry | W | 74 - 71 |
| 2026-01-23 | @ | LeTourneau | W | 84 - 61 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Centenary (LA) | L | 0 - 0 |
| 2026-01-30 | vs | St. Thomas (TX) | W | 85 - 76 |
| 2026-02-01 | vs | Colorado Col. | L | 50 - 62 |
| 2026-02-03 | @ | Centenary (LA) | W | 75 - 46 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Austin | W | 73 - 60 |
| 2026-02-08 | vs | Dallas | L | 0 - 0 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Sansano | - | 16 | 29.5 | 13.5 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 9.8 | 11.4 | 126 | 6.0 | 24.1 | 40.1 | 31.7 | 88.8 | 4.56 | 56.2 | 46.2 |
| Davi'Yanna Jones | - | 16 | 25.6 | 12.1 | 6.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 78 | 3.9 | 17.2 | 52.4 | 28.0 | 81.0 | 0.51 | 59.0 | 54.8 |
| Sarahi Jones | - | 15 | 27.6 | 11.4 | 8.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 10.4 | 11.1 | 64 | 3.6 | 14.3 | 42.3 | 33.3 | 90.9 | 0.69 | 50.1 | 45.2 |
| Kayla Presley | - | 9 | 20.4 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 43 | 3.1 | 22.0 | 43.3 | 25.0 | 81.2 | 2.02 | 52.2 | 47.5 |
| Angelina Sotelo | - | 6 | 19.7 | 7.8 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 28 | 4.0 | 15.1 | 37.0 | 33.3 | 71.4 | 0.25 | 47.9 | 45.7 |
| Hannah Gallegos | - | 15 | 17.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 52 | 2.7 | 28.6 | 35.4 | 39.1 | 61.1 | 0.78 | 48.4 | 46.3 |
| Noelani Ajel | - | 12 | 23.8 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 32 | 2.0 | 12.6 | 38.6 | 27.3 | 58.6 | 0.36 | 48.0 | 43.9 |
| Callista Perez | - | 16 | 22.2 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 35 | 1.8 | 13.5 | 41.3 | 30.8 | 78.6 | 1.37 | 47.4 | 44.0 |
| Zaria Solis | - | 4 | 14.1 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 7.2 | 8 | 1.1 | 150.0 | 50.0 | 0 | 70.0 | 0.58 | 57.9 | 50.0 |
| Jaidyn Trevino | - | 15 | 10.5 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 5.7 | 0.1 | 2 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 25.6 | 23.9 | 42.9 | -2.83 | 35.9 | 35.5 |
| Emerald St. Laurent | - | 15 | 10.5 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 3.6 | 2.1 | - | - | - | 38.9 | 0 | 75.0 | - | 44.2 | 38.9 |
| Laura Sierra | - | 13 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 5 | 0.3 | 3.9 | 47.5 | 0.0 | 16.7 | -0.7 | 44.2 | 47.5 |
| Raemie Medina | - | 8 | 7.7 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | -25 | -2.1 | -84.4 | 20.0 | 11.1 | 66.7 | -1.18 | 28.7 | 22.5 |
| Jessietheresa Brisky | - | 14 | 8.2 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 2.2 | -8 | -0.5 | -6.9 | 36.8 | 33.3 | 50.0 | -0.28 | 46.6 | 44.7 |
| Kaylee Warner | - | 4 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | -15 | -3.0 | -114.6 | 25.0 | 33.3 | 0.0 | -0.53 | 30.7 | 37.5 |
| Maggy Moreman | - | 3 | 8.4 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | -8 | -2.7 | -168.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.31 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG