🐻⬇️🏀

Texas Lutheran

Also known as: Texas Lutheran
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1052 (#129) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1147 (#88) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1146 (#57) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +16.4 (#50) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +9.1 (#217) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.882 (#255) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +15.5 More → 0.889 (#171) NetEff +15.5
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +18.3 More → 0.892 (#217) AdjNet +18.3
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +17.7 More → 0.890 (#221) AdjNet +17.7
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 68.5 | AdjD 57.2 More → 0.736 (#214) AdjO 68.5 | AdjD 57.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 70.5 | AdjD 60.3 More → 0.717 (#111) AdjO 70.5 | AdjD 60.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.769 (#153) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.770 (#147) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 104 | GP 20 More → 1172 (#86) RD 104 | GP 20

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 @ Hardin-Simmons W 72 - 66
2025-11-08 @ Howard Payne W 72 - 52
2025-11-14 @ Caltech W 68 - 37
2025-11-15 @ Cal Lutheran L 67 - 70
2025-11-17 @ Occidental W 75 - 54
2025-11-30 @ Mary Hardin-Baylor L 65 - 76
2025-12-01 vs Hardin-Simmons L 54 - 57
2025-12-10 vs Mary Hardin-Baylor W 68 - 52
2026-01-10 vs Hendrix W 89 - 56
2026-01-16 vs Schreiner W 71 - 52
2026-01-17 vs McMurry W 74 - 71
2026-01-23 @ LeTourneau W 84 - 61
2026-01-24 @ Centenary (LA) L 0 - 0
2026-01-30 vs St. Thomas (TX) W 85 - 76
2026-02-01 vs Colorado Col. L 50 - 62
2026-02-03 @ Centenary (LA) W 75 - 46
2026-02-07 vs Austin W 73 - 60
2026-02-08 vs Dallas L 0 - 0

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Lauren Sansano - 16 29.5 13.5 4.1 4.2 1.8 0.2 2.6 9.8 11.4 126 6.0 24.1 40.1 31.7 88.8 4.56 56.2 46.2
Davi'Yanna Jones - 16 25.6 12.1 6.2 1.4 0.7 0.0 1.5 9.1 9.8 78 3.9 17.2 52.4 28.0 81.0 0.51 59.0 54.8
Sarahi Jones - 15 27.6 11.4 8.3 1.6 0.8 1.1 1.7 10.4 11.1 64 3.6 14.3 42.3 33.3 90.9 0.69 50.1 45.2
Kayla Presley - 9 20.4 7.8 4.7 3.2 1.1 0.1 2.3 6.7 7.9 43 3.1 22.0 43.3 25.0 81.2 2.02 52.2 47.5
Angelina Sotelo - 6 19.7 7.8 1.3 2.5 1.0 0.0 1.2 7.7 3.8 28 4.0 15.1 37.0 33.3 71.4 0.25 47.9 45.7
Hannah Gallegos - 15 17.5 5.8 2.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.3 5.5 2.7 52 2.7 28.6 35.4 39.1 61.1 0.78 48.4 46.3
Noelani Ajel - 12 23.8 5.6 2.8 1.7 0.8 0.0 1.3 4.8 4.8 32 2.0 12.6 38.6 27.3 58.6 0.36 48.0 43.9
Callista Perez - 16 22.2 4.8 3.5 1.9 1.4 0.2 1.3 4.7 5.9 35 1.8 13.5 41.3 30.8 78.6 1.37 47.4 44.0
Zaria Solis - 4 14.1 4.8 5.2 0.0 0.8 0.8 1.2 3.0 7.2 8 1.1 150.0 50.0 0 70.0 0.58 57.9 50.0
Jaidyn Trevino - 15 10.5 4.3 0.9 0.4 0.9 0.1 0.7 5.7 0.1 2 0.1 1.6 25.6 23.9 42.9 -2.83 35.9 35.5
Emerald St. Laurent - 15 10.5 3.6 2.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.9 3.6 2.1 - - - 38.9 0 75.0 - 44.2 38.9
Laura Sierra - 13 8.2 3.1 1.9 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 3.1 2.2 5 0.3 3.9 47.5 0.0 16.7 -0.7 44.2 47.5
Raemie Medina - 8 7.7 1.6 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 1.0 2.5 1.5 -25 -2.1 -84.4 20.0 11.1 66.7 -1.18 28.7 22.5
Jessietheresa Brisky - 14 8.2 1.5 1.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.2 -8 -0.5 -6.9 36.8 33.3 50.0 -0.28 46.6 44.7
Kaylee Warner - 4 3.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.0 0.2 -15 -3.0 -114.6 25.0 33.3 0.0 -0.53 30.7 37.5
Maggy Moreman - 3 8.4 0.0 2.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.0 2.3 0.0 -8 -2.7 -168.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.31 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG