Tarleton State
2026-2027 Team Stats (4 games)
51.8
PPG
67.8
Opp
-16.0
Margin
35.5%
FG%
23.6%
3P%
70.2%
FT%
36.5
RPG
12.5
APG
22.8
TO
70.3
Est. poss./game
55.9
Adj PPG
58.4
Adj Opp PPG
#256
Scoring Rank
Model Outputs
2026-2027
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 854 (#256) | Preseason prior 813 (returning production + recruiting): last season 958, returning -81, transfers -64, freshmen +0 |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 874 (#273) | HCA +169 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 877 (#273) | HCA +169 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -8.5 (#249) | HCA +1.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -8.5 (#249) | HCA +1.6 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.127 (#276) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.316 (#243) | AdjNet -4.4 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.332 (#235) | AdjNet -2.8 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.346 (#256) | AdjO 55.9 | AdjD 58.4 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.348 (#255) | AdjO 55.9 | AdjD 58.4 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.323 (#247) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.323 (#247) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 874 (#265) | RD 196 | GP 2 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | 0.259 (#267) | Chronological component blend with rest and venue. |
Rank through the season
League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.
Recency Ensemble
Log Adjusted
Elo
Points Off/Def Recency
2026-2027 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | vs | Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions | W | 66 - 47 |
| 2026-11-08 | @ | TCU Horned Frogs | L | 42 - 89 |
| 2026-11-11 | vs | Sul Ross State Lobos | W | 64 - 44 |
| 2026-11-14 | @ | Texas Longhorns | L | 35 - 91 |
| 2026-11-19 | @ | Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | - | Preview |
| 2026-11-21 | @ | Nicholls Colonels | - | Preview |
2026-2027 Roster
Estimated Minutes by Position
Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Olivia Medford
|
G | 4 | 27.2 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.2 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8 | 3 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 43.8 | 44.4 | 70.0 | 0.86 | 53.6 | 50.0 |
Caroline Lyles
|
G | 4 | 26.2 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 8 | 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 36.1 | 27.3 | 54.5 | -0.84 | 46.5 | 44.4 |
Stephany Gonçalves
|
G | 4 | 29.0 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 3.8 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 13 | 3 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 37.9 | 10.0 | 80.0 | 1.23 | 46.4 | 39.7 |
Lucia Navarro
|
G | 4 | 23.2 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 16 | 3 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 38.7 | 14.3 | 83.3 | 0.78 | 44.6 | 40.3 |
Kristian Hieskill
|
G | 4 | 24.2 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 4.8 | 3.5 | -12 | 3 | -4.0 | -6.2 | 31.6 | 33.3 | 80.0 | -2.93 | 42.5 | 36.8 |
Jovana Spasovski
|
G | 3 | 19.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | -13 | 2 | -6.5 | -14.1 | 41.7 | 33.3 | 50.0 | -2.94 | 46.6 | 45.8 |
Marie Diame
|
G | 4 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 4.2 | 2.2 | -3 | 3 | -1.0 | -3.7 | 35.3 | 14.3 | 33.3 | -0.26 | 38.2 | 38.2 |
Kendall Ford
|
G | 4 | 14.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.8 | -6 | 3 | -2.0 | -6.0 | 40.0 | 0 | 66.7 | -1.28 | 47.5 | 40.0 |
Brooklyn King
|
G | 4 | 8.8 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 0.2 | -10 | 3 | -3.3 | -18.2 | 25.0 | 20.0 | 100.0 | -1.77 | 34.9 | 29.2 |
Astrid Mukulumpe
|
F | 4 | 7.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | -2 | 3 | -0.7 | -5.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 100.0 | -2.35 | 25.8 | 0.0 |
Alayna Yates
|
F | 4 | 5.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.2 | -0.2 | -18 | 3 | -6.0 | -42.4 | 20.0 | 0 | 0 | -2.42 | 20.0 | 20.0 |
Rose Boisnel
|
F | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Lesline Salim Penge
|
C | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Nyah Buntun
|
G | 4 | 11.2 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | -21 | 3 | -7.0 | -28.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -2.03 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG
2026-2027 Shot Zones
211 located field-goal attempts in 4 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).
Caroline LylesOlivia MedfordLucia NavarroStephany GonçalvesKristian HieskillBrooklyn King
| Zone | FGM-FGA | FG% | Pts | Top scorer | Runner-up | Most misses | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restricted area | 27-51 | 52.9 | 54 | Lucia Navarro 33% (18 pts) | Caroline Lyles 15% (8 pts) | Kristian Hieskill 25% (6 misses) | Kendall Ford 17% (4 misses) |
| Paint (non-RA) | 19-49 | 38.8 | 38 | Stephany Gonçalves 32% (12 pts) | Olivia Medford 26% (10 pts) | Lucia Navarro 27% (8 misses) | Olivia Medford 13% (4 misses) |
| Mid-range left | 5-16 | 31.2 | 10 | Olivia Medford 60% (6 pts) | Caroline Lyles 20% (2 pts) | Olivia Medford 36% (4 misses) | Stephany Gonçalves 27% (3 misses) |
| Mid-range center | 2-4 | 50.0 | 4 | Brooklyn King 50% (2 pts) | Marie Diame 50% (2 pts) | Olivia Medford 100% (2 misses) | - |
| Mid-range right | 5-20 | 25.0 | 10 | Caroline Lyles 40% (4 pts) | Brooklyn King 20% (2 pts) | Caroline Lyles 33% (5 misses) | Alayna Yates 13% (2 misses) |
| Left corner 3 | 1-7 | 14.3 | 3 | Kristian Hieskill 100% (3 pts) | - | Caroline Lyles 33% (2 misses) | Olivia Medford 33% (2 misses) |
| Right corner 3 | 2-7 | 28.6 | 6 | Caroline Lyles 50% (3 pts) | Olivia Medford 50% (3 pts) | Caroline Lyles 60% (3 misses) | Marie Diame 20% (1 misses) |
| Above-break 3 left | 9-27 | 33.3 | 27 | Caroline Lyles 22% (6 pts) | Olivia Medford 22% (6 pts) | Caroline Lyles 28% (5 misses) | Stephany Gonçalves 28% (5 misses) |
| Above-break 3 center | 1-7 | 14.3 | 3 | Caroline Lyles 100% (3 pts) | - | Lucia Navarro 33% (2 misses) | Brooklyn King 17% (1 misses) |
| Above-break 3 right | 4-23 | 17.4 | 12 | Caroline Lyles 50% (6 pts) | Brooklyn King 25% (3 pts) | Caroline Lyles 32% (6 misses) | Brooklyn King 16% (3 misses) |