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Tarleton State

Season: 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2006
Also known as: Tarleton Texans
Program History
Coach: Eric Haut

2027 Team Stats (2 games)

88.0
PPG
78.0
Opp
+10.0
Margin
52.1%
FG%
34.9%
3P%
67.2%
FT%
39.0
RPG
18.0
APG
15.0
TO
75.8
Est. poss./game
51.2
Adj PPG
43.1
Adj Opp PPG
#153
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2026-2027
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. Preseason prior 887 (returning production + recruiting): last season 892, returning -18, transfers +36, freshmen -23 More → 928 (#177) Preseason prior 887 (returning production + recruiting): last season 892, returning -18, transfers +36, freshmen -23
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 932 (#220) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +265 elo More → 986 (#175) HCA +265 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +14.4 More → -4.3 (#220) HCA +14.4
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +11.1 More → +0.7 (#155) HCA +11.1
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.717 (#100) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → 0.396 (#193) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +18.5 More → 0.567 (#135) AdjNet +18.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +18.6 More → 0.569 (#135) AdjNet +18.6
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 51.2 | AdjD 43.1 More → 0.501 (#153) AdjO 51.2 | AdjD 43.1
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 51.1 | AdjD 43.0 More → 0.523 (#144) AdjO 51.1 | AdjD 43.0
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.518 (#143) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.523 (#142) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 218 | GP 1 More → 955 (#183) RD 218 | GP 1

2027 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2026-11-02 vs Cameron Aggies W 86 - 60
2026-11-06 @ San Diego Toreros L 90 - 96
2026-11-10 vs UT Dallas Comets - Preview
2026-11-13 vs Alcorn State Braves - Preview

2027 Roster

Minutes by Position

Each player's share of the team's minutes per game (season minutes over the roster's), placed by position, so every column is one game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
TJ Cope TJ Cope G 2 33.0 16.5 6.5 2.5 1.5 1.0 2.0 9.0 17.0 - - - - 61.1 0.0 55.0 - 61.6 61.1
Leroy Kelly Iv Leroy Kelly Iv G 2 34.5 16.0 8.0 3.5 2.0 0.0 1.5 10.5 17.5 - - - - 47.6 36.4 61.5 - 59.9 57.1
Franck Emmou Franck Emmou G 2 30.0 13.0 1.0 5.5 0.5 0.0 4.0 8.5 7.5 - - - - 47.1 66.7 75.0 - 63.4 58.8
Jac Mani Jac Mani F 2 20.5 11.0 3.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.0 5.0 8.0 - - - - 70.0 50.0 100.0 - 87.0 80.0
Brett Freeman Brett Freeman G 2 17.5 8.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.0 1.5 10.0 1.5 - - - - 40.0 14.3 0 - 42.5 42.5
Ethan Carter Ethan Carter F 2 11.5 7.5 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.5 7.5 - - - - 100.0 0 83.3 - 98.2 100.0
Kade Douglas Kade Douglas G 2 22.5 6.0 2.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 1.5 4.0 4.5 - - - - 50.0 57.1 0 - 75.0 75.0
Josh Hayes Josh Hayes F 1 9.0 6.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 6.0 1.0 4.0 9.0 - - - - 75.0 0.0 0 - 75.0 75.0
Trey Harris Trey Harris G 2 18.5 5.5 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 5.0 4.5 - - - - 50.0 0.0 100.0 - 52.7 50.0
Adrian Shackleton Adrian Shackleton G 1 31.0 2.0 8.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 12.0 - - - - 0.0 0.0 50.0 - 17.4 0.0
Caleb Blackwell Caleb Blackwell G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
JaVar Daniel JaVar Daniel F 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Isaac Harrell Isaac Harrell F 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Caeden Hutcherson Caeden Hutcherson G 1 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Joseph Martinez Joseph Martinez G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Matyas Vrabel Matyas Vrabel F 1 3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2026-2027 Shot Zones

117 located field-goal attempts in 2 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Kelly30% Cope25% Freeman50% Emmou100% Freeman100% Freeman50% Emmou50% Douglas50% Emmou67% Kelly50%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Kelly50% Freeman22% Freeman33% Freeman50% Emmou67% Shackleton50% Douglas25% Freeman45% Emmou67% Kelly38%
Misses: who misses most here

Leroy Kelly IvTJ CopeFranck EmmouBrett FreemanKade DouglasAdrian Shackleton

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 10-12 83.3 20 Leroy Kelly Iv 30% (6 pts) TJ Cope 30% (6 pts) Leroy Kelly Iv 50% (1 misses) Trey Harris 50% (1 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 32-50 64.0 64 TJ Cope 25% (16 pts) Brett Freeman 16% (10 pts) Brett Freeman 22% (4 misses) Franck Emmou 17% (3 misses)
Mid-range left 2-5 40.0 4 Brett Freeman 50% (2 pts) Franck Emmou 50% (2 pts) Brett Freeman 33% (1 misses) Franck Emmou 33% (1 misses)
Mid-range center 1-3 33.3 2 Franck Emmou 100% (2 pts) - Brett Freeman 50% (1 misses) Franck Emmou 50% (1 misses)
Mid-range right 1-4 25.0 2 Brett Freeman 100% (2 pts) - Franck Emmou 67% (2 misses) Adrian Shackleton 33% (1 misses)
Left corner 3 2-4 50.0 6 Brett Freeman 50% (3 pts) Kade Douglas 50% (3 pts) Adrian Shackleton 50% (1 misses) Leroy Kelly Iv 50% (1 misses)
Right corner 3 2-6 33.3 6 Franck Emmou 50% (3 pts) Leroy Kelly Iv 50% (3 pts) Kade Douglas 25% (1 misses) Leroy Kelly Iv 25% (1 misses)
Above-break 3 left 4-15 26.7 12 Kade Douglas 50% (6 pts) Franck Emmou 25% (3 pts) Brett Freeman 45% (5 misses) Leroy Kelly Iv 18% (2 misses)
Above-break 3 center 3-6 50.0 9 Franck Emmou 67% (6 pts) Jac Mani 33% (3 pts) Franck Emmou 67% (2 misses) Trey Harris 33% (1 misses)
Above-break 3 right 4-12 33.3 12 Leroy Kelly Iv 50% (6 pts) Jac Mani 25% (3 pts) Leroy Kelly Iv 38% (3 misses) Brett Freeman 12% (1 misses)