🐻⬇️🏀

TCNJ

Also known as: TCNJ
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1106 (#68) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1058 (#227) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1114 (#79) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +6.0 (#126) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +10.6 (#205) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.880 (#256) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +9.1 More → 0.761 (#246) NetEff +9.1
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +12.6 More → 0.811 (#264) AdjNet +12.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +12.1 More → 0.807 (#269) AdjNet +12.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 68.3 | AdjD 61.0 More → 0.661 (#269) AdjO 68.3 | AdjD 61.0
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 70.3 | AdjD 57.5 More → 0.763 (#81) AdjO 70.3 | AdjD 57.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.744 (#172) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.759 (#156) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 102 | GP 22 More → 1111 (#143) RD 102 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-08 vs Arcadia L 75 - 87
2025-11-14 @ Trinity (CT) L 73 - 79
2025-11-15 @ Rhode Island Col. L 70 - 82
2025-11-19 vs Chris. Newport L 59 - 85
2025-11-22 vs Stevens L 74 - 76
2025-11-25 vs Wm. Paterson L 54 - 64
2025-12-03 @ Stockton W 69 - 43
2025-12-10 @ Rutgers-Camden L 53 - 54
2025-12-13 vs Ramapo W 63 - 36
2025-12-30 vs St. John Fisher W 61 - 53
2025-12-31 @ Smith L 61 - 85
2026-01-10 vs Rutgers-Newark W 82 - 62
2026-01-14 @ Montclair St. W 84 - 51
2026-01-17 vs New Jersey City W 95 - 55
2026-01-21 @ Wm. Paterson L 47 - 61
2026-01-24 @ Kean W 76 - 37
2026-01-28 vs Stockton W 75 - 59
2026-01-31 @ Ramapo W 83 - 47
2026-02-04 vs Rutgers-Camden W 81 - 61
2026-02-07 @ Rutgers-Newark W 95 - 48

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Amanda Baylock - 20 28.8 13.1 3.0 2.9 1.3 0.1 2.0 13.4 4.9 102 4.9 22.4 34.9 32.1 80.0 5.37 46.4 44.2
Katie Fricker - 20 31.3 12.4 6.7 2.6 1.6 0.1 1.7 10.5 11.2 101 4.8 23.5 36.7 27.8 83.1 3.25 50.8 43.8
Maddie Bernhardt - 20 19.3 9.8 1.9 1.0 1.1 0.1 1.4 8.2 4.4 78 3.7 25.9 43.3 39.8 61.1 1.22 57.0 56.4
Brooke McFadden - 20 24.5 8.8 8.9 1.4 0.8 1.0 1.1 8.2 11.8 94 4.5 28.1 42.1 35.6 56.7 0.84 49.7 48.5
Riley Ahrens - 11 15.8 7.8 2.6 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.8 5.6 5.9 63 5.2 33.8 48.4 39.1 100.0 3.03 61.9 55.6
Grace Kowalski - 19 24.1 7.6 2.9 3.2 1.4 0.3 1.7 7.9 5.8 49 2.5 12.8 38.0 31.0 50.0 0.6 45.9 45.3
Cassidy Brown - 17 16.9 4.9 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.2 5.2 1.6 89 4.9 60.6 31.5 36.2 46.2 2.35 43.8 43.3
Izzy Augustine - 17 12.2 4.5 1.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 3.8 2.8 39 2.1 20.0 43.8 30.6 47.6 -0.3 52.6 52.3
Olivia Voshell - 6 10.6 4.5 1.8 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.3 3.0 3.8 - - - 55.6 0 77.8 - 61.5 55.6
Myah Hourigan-Hutton - 20 26.5 3.7 4.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.8 3.1 6.2 49 2.3 13.1 35.5 0.0 61.2 1.62 44.3 35.5
Reghan Bice - 9 5.6 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.4 1.6 36 3.6 67.7 61.5 50.0 100.0 0.59 82.9 80.8
Olivia Magee - 17 8.7 1.9 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.6 1.6 1.9 23 1.3 18.4 50.0 0 50.0 0.23 50.9 50.0
Meaghan Weatherstone - 2 2.5 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 1.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG