Swarthmore
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 862 (#449) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 926 (#433) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 894 (#615) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -3.5 (#230) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -5.6 (#438) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.384 (#502) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.238 (#435) | NetEff -7.9 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.471 (#390) | AdjNet -1.0 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.456 (#390) | AdjNet -1.5 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.466 (#389) | AdjO 56.8 | AdjD 58.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.415 (#518) | AdjO 55.7 | AdjD 59.4 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.374 (#477) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.373 (#482) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 874 (#442) | RD 105 | GP 20 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | vs | NYU | L | 49 - 108 |
| 2025-11-08 | @ | Brandeis | L | 51 - 58 |
| 2025-11-18 | vs | Penn St. Brandywine | W | 78 - 35 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Gwynedd Mercy | W | 75 - 58 |
| 2025-12-01 | vs | Penn St.-Abington | L | 58 - 66 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Franklin & Marshall | L | 35 - 61 |
| 2025-12-09 | vs | St. Mary's (MD) | W | 59 - 53 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Dickinson | L | 52 - 59 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Muhlenberg | W | 56 - 52 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | McDaniel | L | 47 - 57 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | Bryn Mawr | W | 62 - 55 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Gettysburg | L | 49 - 61 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Ursinus | L | 51 - 78 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Muhlenberg | L | 47 - 55 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Haverford | W | 50 - 47 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Salisbury | L | 60 - 63 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catherine Chadwell | - | 15 | 33.7 | 14.7 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 12.6 | 9.3 | -29 | -1.6 | -6.4 | 40.7 | 24.4 | 83.6 | 0.64 | 50.3 | 43.4 |
| Vianna Kanyamiheto-Watson | - | 14 | 34.5 | 13.8 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 3.8 | 12.6 | 5.9 | -47 | -2.9 | -12.4 | 36.2 | 35.6 | 73.3 | -0.37 | 49.0 | 45.2 |
| Carly Murphy | - | 15 | 30.8 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 36 | 2.0 | 10.4 | 37.0 | 31.8 | 78.6 | 2.37 | 44.5 | 39.9 |
| Lily Czub | - | 15 | 29.2 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 9.1 | 2.0 | 48 | 2.8 | 11.8 | 34.3 | 29.7 | 61.1 | 1.46 | 40.0 | 38.3 |
| Claire Mathews | - | 16 | 21.6 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 6.4 | 1.4 | -12 | -0.7 | -4.1 | 21.6 | 22.9 | 85.7 | -1.87 | 34.7 | 30.9 |
| Emy Chen | - | 16 | 14.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | -16 | -0.9 | -7.5 | 29.9 | 15.4 | 78.3 | -0.29 | 39.0 | 32.5 |
| Raven Richardson | - | 12 | 25.0 | 3.1 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 7.5 | -49 | -3.1 | -22.4 | 29.6 | 0 | 50.0 | -0.33 | 31.7 | 29.6 |
| Samara Diggs | - | 16 | 15.8 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 4.9 | 7 | 0.4 | 4.0 | 45.2 | 0 | 50.0 | 1.37 | 47.1 | 45.2 |
| Kaylah Jacques | - | 13 | 9.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | -21 | -1.5 | -17.4 | 20.7 | 21.4 | 100.0 | -0.12 | 28.4 | 25.9 |
| Nina Sablan | - | 7 | 5.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -19 | -2.7 | -73.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 50.0 | -0.77 | 26.6 | 0.0 |
| Darlene Jimenez | - | 3 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Kaya Fruchtman | - | 5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | -1 | -0.2 | -70.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.04 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG