🐻⬇️🏀

Stockton

Also known as: Stockton
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 958 (#321) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1048 (#248) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1044 (#198) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -4.9 (#244) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +0.9 (#356) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.576 (#422) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -0.9 More → 0.465 (#367) NetEff -0.9
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -7.5 More → 0.296 (#451) AdjNet -7.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -8.2 More → 0.276 (#455) AdjNet -8.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 54.3 | AdjD 60.6 More → 0.362 (#468) AdjO 54.3 | AdjD 60.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 57.1 | AdjD 53.9 More → 0.571 (#265) AdjO 57.1 | AdjD 53.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.557 (#331) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.572 (#320) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 97 | GP 22 More → 1057 (#247) RD 97 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-08 vs Penn St. Harrisburg W 65 - 54
2025-11-12 @ Albright W 60 - 59
2025-11-19 vs Washington Col. W 57 - 48
2025-11-22 @ FDU-Florham L 62 - 64
2025-11-25 @ Kean W 61 - 52
2025-12-03 vs TCNJ L 43 - 69
2025-12-10 @ New Jersey City W 58 - 53
2025-12-13 vs Rutgers-Newark W 72 - 46
2025-12-15 vs McDaniel L 48 - 63
2026-01-10 @ Montclair St. L 43 - 77
2026-01-14 vs Rowan W 55 - 43
2026-01-17 @ Ramapo W 62 - 43
2026-01-21 vs Kean W 54 - 23
2026-01-24 vs Wm. Paterson L 51 - 60
2026-01-28 @ TCNJ L 59 - 75
2026-01-31 @ Rutgers-Newark W 88 - 35
2026-02-04 vs New Jersey City W 72 - 55
2026-02-07 vs Montclair St. W 71 - 63

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Bre Evans - 18 33.2 11.1 4.0 3.0 2.2 0.0 3.5 11.6 5.1 -53 -2.4 -13.3 34.0 21.7 61.8 0.19 41.0 36.4
Zemirah Enalls - 16 22.4 11.1 9.6 0.4 1.0 0.8 1.6 7.6 13.8 40 2.1 12.5 62.3 0.0 59.1 3.03 63.0 62.3
Imene Fathi - 18 24.9 8.7 2.8 2.9 1.5 0.1 1.4 8.0 6.4 -11 -0.5 -2.9 39.6 31.2 81.5 1.96 50.0 46.5
Grace Speer - 18 22.6 8.1 6.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.9 7.4 8.3 -13 -0.6 -5.5 45.1 31.6 83.3 0.54 50.8 47.4
Madisyn McNair - 18 30.2 7.8 2.3 0.9 0.8 0.0 3.0 9.6 -0.8 -6 -0.3 -1.2 28.9 22.1 41.7 5.03 35.1 33.2
Lauren Winant - 18 18.2 4.2 2.5 0.6 0.8 0.1 1.0 3.5 3.7 -54 -2.6 -23.3 39.7 14.3 80.0 -1.63 49.2 40.5
Sienna Fedoruk - 12 22.0 4.2 2.8 1.5 0.9 0.0 1.8 4.6 3.0 -92 -6.1 -238.2 34.5 30.4 60.0 -1.73 42.9 40.9
Aiyonna Alexander - 6 12.9 3.7 4.0 0.7 0.7 0.2 2.2 3.5 3.5 -1 -0.2 -1.9 38.1 0 50.0 -0.45 41.9 38.1
Haleigh Schafer - 15 16.5 3.1 4.2 0.8 1.1 0.0 1.6 4.1 3.5 -61 -3.4 -38.0 19.4 5.6 55.0 -1.85 29.5 20.2
Riley Fitzpatrick - 11 8.7 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.2 2.7 0.2 -18 -1.4 -46.9 20.0 17.6 64.3 -0.48 33.2 25.0
ChiChi Wokocha - 15 8.5 2.1 2.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.8 1.9 2.7 -75 -4.2 -60.3 42.9 0.0 58.3 -0.36 46.6 42.9
Saafiyah Wilson - 3 8.9 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.0 1.7 2.3 0.3 -2 -0.4 -4.1 28.6 0 0 -0.45 28.6 28.6
Mackenzie McDonald - 5 2.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 48 3.2 36.6 50.0 0 50.0 -0.33 52.1 50.0
Joy LeCato - 11 6.8 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.5 1.8 -0.3 -21 -1.4 -18.2 10.0 16.7 0 -1.48 12.5 12.5
Brookelyn Graham - 1 7.5 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 11 3.7 80.5 0.0 0.0 0 1.2 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG