Stockton Ospreys
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1083 (#129) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1066 (#216) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1081 (#115) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +1.4 (#107) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +0.3 (#344) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.634 (#375) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.719 (#30) | NetEff +9.2 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.621 (#307) | AdjNet +4.3 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.614 (#307) | AdjNet +4.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.575 (#309) | AdjO 80.7 | AdjD 77.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.609 (#203) | AdjO 80.1 | AdjD 75.2 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.582 (#329) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.593 (#325) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1108 (#159) | RD 98 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | @ | Salisbury | L | 74 - 83 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Gettysburg | L | 58 - 61 |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | Swarthmore | W | 81 - 74 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Kean | L | 71 - 79 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | TCNJ | W | 80 - 64 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Wm. Paterson | W | 83 - 76 |
| 2025-12-10 | @ | New Jersey City | L | 64 - 73 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Rutgers-Newark | W | 82 - 59 |
| 2025-12-29 | @ | John Carroll | L | 81 - 106 |
| 2025-12-30 | @ | Albright | W | 102 - 94 |
| 2026-01-02 | vs | Widener | W | 106 - 64 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Chris. Newport | L | 57 - 77 |
| 2026-01-07 | vs | Rutgers-Camden | W | 78 - 73 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Montclair St. | L | 92 - 94 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Rowan | W | 107 - 82 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Ramapo | W | 76 - 68 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | Kean | W | 83 - 70 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Wm. Paterson | W | 77 - 56 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | TCNJ | L | 82 - 84 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Rutgers-Newark | W | 78 - 51 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | New Jersey City | W | 79 - 73 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Montclair St. | L | 73 - 104 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Harper | - | 22 | 26.3 | 14.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 57 | 2.6 | 19.2 | 43.7 | 34.3 | 79.7 | 0.51 | 53.9 | 50.4 |
| Tayvon Gaither | - | 22 | 20.2 | 11.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 49 | 2.2 | 18.0 | 60.2 | 0.0 | 61.7 | 1.19 | 61.5 | 60.2 |
| Eriq Campbell | - | 22 | 27.4 | 11.1 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 22 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 44.8 | 24.2 | 72.5 | 0.62 | 53.9 | 48.7 |
| Charlie Bell IV | - | 22 | 24.0 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 54 | 2.6 | 18.9 | 44.8 | 35.7 | 62.2 | 1.53 | 54.5 | 53.0 |
| Logan Mckee | - | 22 | 20.3 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 8.5 | 6.5 | -27 | -1.2 | -12.2 | 35.1 | 24.6 | 80.0 | -1.75 | 45.2 | 42.6 |
| Andrew Crawford | - | 22 | 26.6 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 6.4 | 9.6 | 62 | 2.8 | 18.1 | 42.6 | 33.8 | 88.9 | -0.2 | 54.9 | 51.1 |
| Devon Johnson | - | 22 | 16.7 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 56 | 2.5 | 28.8 | 42.6 | 35.0 | 73.3 | -0.25 | 57.7 | 54.8 |
| Jahmir Payoute | - | 22 | 19.8 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 4.2 | 7.4 | -10 | -0.5 | -4.8 | 54.8 | 41.7 | 37.5 | -1.98 | 55.2 | 57.5 |
| Riley Powell | - | 15 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 2.3 | -13 | -0.9 | -16.2 | 54.2 | 0.0 | 64.7 | 1.13 | 58.8 | 54.2 |
| DJ Germann | - | 6 | 14.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 19 | 3.2 | 33.5 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 45.5 | -1.19 | 37.8 | 33.3 |
| Anthony Trombetta | - | 9 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 1.3 | -4 | -0.5 | -8.6 | 30.0 | 28.6 | 87.5 | -0.46 | 55.5 | 40.0 |
| Alex Fessel | - | 21 | 11.0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2.1 | -22 | -1.0 | -18.2 | 38.7 | 23.8 | 55.6 | 0.45 | 48.6 | 46.8 |
| Alex Konov | - | 5 | 7.5 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 0.0 | -15 | -3.0 | -45.0 | 28.6 | 33.3 | 50.0 | -1.05 | 44.4 | 42.9 |
| Colin Raimann | - | 9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 22 | 2.8 | 93.0 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 100.0 | 1.64 | 61.0 | 41.7 |
| Miles Chevalier | - | 2 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 3 | 1.5 | 53.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG