Stanislaus St.
Model Outputs
2018-2019
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 971 (#164) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 940 (#187) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 974 (#166) | HCA +53 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +5.6 (#131) | HCA +2.5 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +4.6 (#133) | HCA +2.4 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.263 (#220) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.569 (#162) | AdjNet +2.4 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.576 (#161) | AdjNet +2.6 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.515 (#165) | AdjO 64.6 | AdjD 63.9 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.494 (#151) | AdjO 63.6 | AdjD 63.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.528 (#153) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.523 (#151) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 972 (#161) | RD 151 | GP 24 |
2019 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-11-09 | @ | Northwest Nazarene | L | 59 - 88 |
| 2018-11-10 | @ | Central Wash. | L | 59 - 94 |
| 2018-11-24 | @ | Cal State LA | L | 60 - 80 |
| 2018-11-29 | vs | Sonoma St. | W | 59 - 49 |
| 2018-12-01 | vs | Cal Poly Pomona | L | 64 - 75 |
| 2018-12-06 | @ | Chico St. | L | 64 - 80 |
| 2018-12-08 | @ | Cal Poly Humboldt | L | 61 - 67 |
| 2018-12-11 | @ | Nevada | T | 0 - 0 |
| 2018-12-14 | @ | Fresno St. | T | 0 - 0 |
| 2018-12-17 | vs | Simon Fraser | W | 75 - 63 |
| 2018-12-18 | @ | Western Wash. | L | 60 - 77 |
| 2018-12-30 | vs | CSUSB | L | 52 - 57 |
| 2019-01-03 | @ | Cal St. East Bay | L | 48 - 63 |
| 2019-01-05 | @ | Cal St. Monterey Bay | - | Preview |
| 2019-01-10 | vs | Cal St. San Marcos | L | 65 - 69 |
| 2019-01-12 | vs | UC San Diego | L | 65 - 78 |
| 2019-01-17 | @ | San Fran. St. | W | 70 - 58 |
| 2019-01-19 | @ | Sonoma St. | L | 47 - 58 |
| 2019-01-24 | vs | Cal St. Monterey Bay | W | 70 - 51 |
| 2019-01-26 | vs | Cal St. East Bay | L | 44 - 49 |
| 2019-01-31 | @ | UC San Diego | L | 67 - 94 |
| 2019-02-02 | @ | Cal St. San Marcos | W | 69 - 64 |
| 2019-02-07 | vs | Cal Poly Humboldt | L | 58 - 65 |
| 2019-02-09 | vs | Chico St. | W | 77 - 73 |
| 2019-02-21 | @ | Cal Poly Pomona | L | 65 - 69 |
| 2019-02-23 | @ | CSUSB | W | 65 - 52 |
| 2019-02-28 | vs | Cal State LA | W | 66 - 54 |
| 2019-03-02 | vs | Cal St. Dom. Hills | L | 61 - 75 |
2019 Roster
No roster data available for this season.