Stanislaus St.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 671 (#537) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 699 (#529) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 782 (#683) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -11.9 (#256) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -19.1 (#592) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.087 (#543) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 1.000 (#17) | NetEff +62.5 |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.022 (#439) | NetEff -27.7 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.233 (#502) | AdjNet -10.4 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.233 (#504) | AdjNet -10.1 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.336 (#521) | AdjO 62.6 | AdjD 70.1 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.182 (#671) | AdjO 54.8 | AdjD 71.4 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.102 (#649) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.108 (#656) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 653 (#522) | RD 105 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-03 | @ | Santa Clara | L | 52 - 108 |
| 2025-11-20 | @ | Utah St. | L | 41 - 96 |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | Bushnell | W | 62 - 60 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Jessup | L | 67 - 75 |
| 2025-11-26 | @ | Fresno Pacific | L | 49 - 68 |
| 2025-12-04 | @ | Cal Poly Humboldt | L | 57 - 69 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Chico St. | L | 52 - 66 |
| 2025-12-19 | vs | CSUSB | L | 33 - 78 |
| 2025-12-21 | vs | Cal Poly Pomona | L | 37 - 75 |
| 2026-01-02 | vs | Cal St. Monterey Bay | L | 72 - 78 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Cal St. Dom. Hills | L | 74 - 79 |
| 2026-01-15 | vs | San Fran. St. | L | 71 - 80 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Cal St. East Bay | L | 64 - 79 |
| 2026-01-22 | @ | UC Merced | L | 52 - 70 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | UC Merced | W | 66 - 58 |
| 2026-01-29 | @ | Cal St. San Marcos | L | 53 - 56 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Cal St. Monterey Bay | L | 49 - 82 |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Chico St. | W | 67 - 61 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Cal Poly Humboldt | L | 61 - 72 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MilaSarai Tau | - | 16 | 23.0 | 11.8 | 5.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 3.2 | 10.9 | 5.4 | -89 | -5.9 | -40.7 | 43.1 | 0.0 | 62.3 | -0.08 | 46.8 | 43.1 |
| Alyssa Premo | - | 19 | 27.3 | 11.2 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 9.1 | 7.2 | -177 | -9.3 | -39.5 | 44.2 | 32.0 | 77.9 | -2.14 | 52.7 | 46.5 |
| Eryn Gardner | - | 19 | 32.4 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 9.7 | 8.9 | -235 | -13.1 | -53.1 | 40.5 | 50.0 | 52.8 | -2.66 | 43.3 | 41.9 |
| Karissa Hukill | - | 19 | 21.7 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 7.7 | 3.8 | -174 | -9.7 | -70.6 | 35.4 | 16.1 | 44.4 | -0.5 | 38.7 | 37.1 |
| Aaliyah Dias | - | 11 | 14.8 | 5.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 5.8 | 0.5 | 112 | 5.3 | 18.5 | 35.9 | 27.0 | 69.2 | 1.59 | 46.6 | 43.8 |
| Amya Vangkham-Griffin | - | 18 | 21.9 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 4.7 | 3.2 | -96 | -5.3 | -29.5 | 29.8 | 32.6 | 52.9 | 0.62 | 41.4 | 38.1 |
| Kalyn Harris | - | 17 | 17.0 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 5.5 | 0.4 | -126 | -7.4 | -40.2 | 31.9 | 30.0 | 33.3 | -0.93 | 36.8 | 36.7 |
| Quinn Garrett | - | 19 | 32.7 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 6.9 | 0.6 | -229 | -12.1 | -46.3 | 19.8 | 10.5 | 64.5 | -2.11 | 27.0 | 22.1 |
| Sara Davis | - | 17 | 15.4 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | -101 | -5.6 | -34.3 | 27.5 | 10.0 | 80.0 | 1.45 | 36.0 | 29.0 |
| Cameron Gibson | - | 16 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 2.4 | -15 | -1.2 | -37.1 | 26.1 | 0 | 40.0 | -2.63 | 29.2 | 26.1 |
| Kylie Kulina | - | 9 | 6.0 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | -0.3 | -26 | -3.2 | -537.9 | 14.3 | 33.3 | 50.0 | 0.01 | 25.4 | 21.4 |
| Lexi Derf | - | 1 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG