St. Olaf
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 894 (#412) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 907 (#462) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 790 (#698) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -6.1 (#254) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -14.7 (#552) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.134 (#614) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.161 (#463) | NetEff -11.7 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.204 (#491) | AdjNet -11.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.199 (#488) | AdjNet -11.8 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.334 (#479) | AdjO 56.9 | AdjD 64.4 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.252 (#634) | AdjO 49.7 | AdjD 61.7 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.167 (#621) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.167 (#631) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 789 (#501) | RD 101 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-11 | @ | Crown (MN) | W | 56 - 47 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Buena Vista | W | 66 - 65 |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | Saint Benedict | L | 53 - 59 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Central (IA) | W | 66 - 63 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Martin Luther | L | 40 - 59 |
| 2025-12-02 | vs | Crown (MN) | W | 62 - 53 |
| 2025-12-10 | vs | Concordia-M'head | L | 54 - 80 |
| 2025-12-17 | vs | North Central (MN) | W | 72 - 69 |
| 2025-12-31 | @ | Bethany Lutheran | L | 57 - 68 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | St. Scholastica | L | 50 - 64 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Bethel (MN) | L | 50 - 76 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Hamline | L | 39 - 54 |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | Saint Mary's (MN) | L | 45 - 81 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Hamline | L | 26 - 63 |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | St. Catherine | L | 46 - 54 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Macalester | L | 50 - 51 |
| 2026-02-04 | @ | Bethel (MN) | L | 36 - 71 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Saint Mary's (MN) | L | 51 - 67 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elise Hahn | - | 18 | 28.4 | 11.3 | 10.3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 8.4 | 15.3 | -87 | -4.8 | -26.4 | 45.7 | 0.0 | 74.7 | 0.33 | 53.6 | 45.7 |
| Hallie Koltz | - | 6 | 30.2 | 10.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 3.2 | 13.2 | 0.3 | - | - | - | 29.1 | 12.5 | 80.0 | - | 37.0 | 31.0 |
| Erin Schauer | - | 16 | 32.8 | 10.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 10.4 | 2.8 | -79 | -4.4 | -22.8 | 34.9 | 28.0 | 61.7 | -1.1 | 45.0 | 41.9 |
| Joy Brandenstein | - | 18 | 35.1 | 9.5 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 9.4 | 4.6 | -152 | -7.6 | -43.3 | 37.6 | 29.7 | 80.8 | -1.37 | 47.1 | 44.1 |
| Bree Wilkerson | - | 16 | 32.9 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 3.9 | 7.9 | 3.9 | -106 | -6.6 | -32.0 | 31.0 | 18.6 | 79.5 | -1.15 | 40.9 | 34.1 |
| Grace Gertner | - | 13 | 26.8 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 4.2 | -98 | -6.5 | -29.8 | 31.9 | 22.7 | 67.9 | -1.77 | 45.5 | 37.2 |
| Emmanuella Sennowo | - | 15 | 13.2 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 3.3 | -40 | -2.7 | -48.1 | 42.9 | 37.5 | 55.0 | 1.12 | 47.8 | 45.5 |
| Glory Johanson | - | 18 | 19.2 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.3 | -104 | -5.2 | -72.1 | 35.7 | 0.0 | 52.4 | -3.22 | 40.0 | 35.7 |
| Norah Bickett | - | 18 | 13.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 2.7 | -0.3 | -59 | -3.0 | -34.4 | 20.4 | 19.4 | 100.0 | 0.34 | 32.0 | 27.6 |
| Kaia Krocak | - | 6 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 0.2 | -17 | -2.4 | -106.2 | 22.2 | 0 | 50.0 | -0.16 | 25.3 | 22.2 |
| Sarah Heinecke | - | 5 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | -1 | -0.2 | -5.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.53 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Eleanor Prato | - | 7 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | -0.6 | -34 | -3.4 | -52.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.91 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG