St. Olaf
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1100 (#104) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1089 (#160) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1113 (#73) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -4.2 (#180) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -0.5 (#355) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.233 (#641) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.181 (#558) | AdjNet -13.1 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.174 (#557) | AdjNet -13.3 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.296 (#549) | AdjO 67.4 | AdjD 76.9 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.609 (#202) | AdjO 78.5 | AdjD 73.6 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.556 (#350) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.574 (#336) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1140 (#109) | RD 149 | GP 6 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | @ | St. Norbert | L | 69 - 79 |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | Saint Mary's (MN) | W | 84 - 74 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Hamline | W | 68 - 62 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Macalester | W | 75 - 72 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Bethel (MN) | W | 96 - 82 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Saint Mary's (MN) | W | 98 - 56 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobe Kirk | - | 6 | 31.2 | 19.0 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 15.2 | 10.8 | 78 | 3.5 | 17.5 | 45.1 | 21.9 | 86.2 | 2.12 | 54.9 | 48.9 |
| Rex Lamb | - | 6 | 30.4 | 17.8 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 11.5 | 11.2 | 37 | 1.7 | 8.9 | 52.2 | 50.0 | 100.0 | 2.51 | 70.0 | 65.2 |
| AJ Uhl | - | 6 | 30.5 | 16.2 | 7.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 11.5 | 14.3 | 97 | 4.4 | 24.3 | 59.4 | 36.4 | 61.1 | 2.56 | 63.1 | 62.3 |
| Liam Madigan | - | 6 | 19.8 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 10 | 0.5 | 2.9 | 38.9 | 33.3 | 75.0 | -2.08 | 46.3 | 44.4 |
| Max Kraay | - | 6 | 20.4 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 40 | 1.9 | 16.7 | 33.3 | 20.0 | 81.8 | -0.84 | 45.9 | 38.3 |
| Chris Willis | - | 6 | 13.6 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 54 | 2.5 | 24.9 | 48.0 | 25.0 | 50.0 | -0.06 | 52.5 | 52.0 |
| Luther Tostrud | - | 6 | 24.6 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 3.8 | 9.7 | 129 | 5.9 | 39.8 | 43.5 | 35.7 | 100.0 | 3.04 | 56.5 | 54.3 |
| Cooper Carlson | - | 4 | 17.7 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 5 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 46.7 | 25.0 | 100.0 | -1.2 | 53.5 | 50.0 |
| Colin Kirk | - | 2 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 4.5 | -13 | -3.2 | -54.8 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 75.0 | 0.03 | 60.8 | 50.0 |
| Liam Roche | - | 5 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 38 | 2.1 | 23.6 | 35.7 | 33.3 | 100.0 | -1.02 | 45.7 | 39.3 |
| Jack Frigstad | - | 2 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | -9 | -2.2 | -47.3 | 40.0 | 33.3 | 0 | 0.27 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Mason Aarness | - | 2 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -3 | -0.6 | -11.5 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.42 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Jaxon Strinmoen | - | 6 | 5.5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | -4 | -0.2 | -3.3 | 28.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -2.94 | 25.4 | 28.6 |
| James Polasky | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Giorgos Siotas | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG