Springfield Pride
Model Outputs
2016-2017
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1060 (#158) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1064 (#148) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1027 (#164) | HCA +58 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +4.3 (#159) | HCA +2.4 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +6.9 (#114) | HCA +2.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.490 (#210) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.675 (#134) | AdjNet +6.4 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.678 (#134) | AdjNet +6.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.600 (#136) | AdjO 76.8 | AdjD 72.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.582 (#142) | AdjO 76.6 | AdjD 72.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.622 (#139) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.619 (#140) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1088 (#134) | RD 125 | GP 26 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | Legacy estimate | Earlier model estimate; no qualified current forecast. |
2016-2017 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-11-15 | @ | Western New Eng. | W | 80 - 69 |
| 2016-11-18 | @ | Dean | - | Preview |
| 2016-11-19 | @ | Bridgewater St. | L | 74 - 79 |
| 2016-11-22 | @ | Keene St. | L | 84 - 107 |
| 2016-11-29 | vs | SUNY New Paltz | L | 63 - 64 |
| 2016-12-03 | vs | Westfield St. | W | 64 - 62 |
| 2016-12-07 | @ | Trinity (CT) | L | 66 - 74 |
| 2016-12-10 | vs | Williams | L | 69 - 87 |
| 2016-12-14 | vs | Amherst | W | 71 - 70 |
| 2016-12-30 | vs | Elizabethtown | W | 86 - 64 |
| 2016-12-31 | vs | Connecticut Col. | W | 82 - 71 |
| 2017-01-04 | @ | WPI | W | 71 - 63 |
| 2017-01-07 | vs | Babson | L | 68 - 73 |
| 2017-01-11 | @ | Wheaton (MA) | L | 63 - 67 |
| 2017-01-14 | @ | MIT | L | 58 - 79 |
| 2017-01-18 | vs | Coast Guard | W | 80 - 74 |
| 2017-01-21 | @ | Clark (MA) | L | 68 - 82 |
| 2017-01-25 | vs | Emerson | W | 77 - 60 |
| 2017-01-28 | vs | WPI | W | 73 - 70 |
| 2017-02-01 | vs | MIT | L | 62 - 73 |
| 2017-02-04 | vs | Wheaton (MA) | W | 98 - 78 |
| 2017-02-08 | @ | Babson | L | 77 - 95 |
| 2017-02-11 | @ | Emerson | W | 82 - 62 |
| 2017-02-15 | vs | Clark (MA) | W | 86 - 81 |
| 2017-02-18 | @ | Coast Guard | L | 78 - 81 |
| 2017-02-22 | vs | Wheaton (MA) | W | 85 - 82 |
| 2017-02-25 | @ | Babson | L | 62 - 67 |
2016-2017 Roster
No roster data available for this season.