Southwest Minn. St.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1092 (#99) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1126 (#82) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1025 (#215) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +18.2 (#54) | HCA +2.9 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +16.5 (#127) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.842 (#218) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.622 (#239) | NetEff +4.3 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.970 (#122) | AdjNet +30.1 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.974 (#121) | AdjNet +30.6 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.870 (#112) | AdjO 82.5 | AdjD 61.6 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.693 (#90) | AdjO 73.0 | AdjD 64.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.786 (#112) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.768 (#120) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1061 (#182) | RD 94 | GP 23 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | vs | UAH | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-08 | @ | Tampa | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Central Okla. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Washburn | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Sioux Falls | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-30 | vs | Northern St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-04 | @ | Augustana (SD) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Wayne St. (NE) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | Concordia-St. Paul | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-14 | @ | Winona St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-19 | vs | Minnesota St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-20 | vs | St. Cloud St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Sioux Falls | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Minn. Duluth | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-16 | vs | Minot St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Mary | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-23 | vs | MSU Moorhead | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Minn.-Crookston | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-30 | @ | Jamestown | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Northern St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-05 | @ | St. Cloud St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Minnesota St. | - | Incomplete score |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Audrey Swanson | - | 21 | 31.2 | 17.0 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 14.5 | 12.1 | 80 | 3.6 | 10.6 | 43.9 | 35.8 | 81.2 | 2.12 | 53.7 | 50.2 |
| Nicole Maenke | - | 22 | 31.8 | 14.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 88 | 3.8 | 10.6 | 44.5 | 34.1 | 91.4 | 2.75 | 60.0 | 54.2 |
| Kylan Gerads | - | 22 | 29.8 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 3.1 | 10.8 | 8.5 | -5 | -0.2 | -0.7 | 46.2 | 39.5 | 73.7 | -1.24 | 56.3 | 53.4 |
| Natalie Nielsen | - | 20 | 25.4 | 13.2 | 8.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 8.6 | 14.4 | 71 | 3.4 | 10.3 | 56.1 | 36.8 | 90.4 | 3.01 | 65.2 | 58.2 |
| Brynn Busse | - | 22 | 20.0 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 31 | 1.3 | 7.7 | 42.2 | 40.7 | 83.3 | 0.2 | 57.8 | 55.4 |
| Maddie Thorfinnson | - | 22 | 33.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 68 | 3.0 | 9.1 | 31.2 | 33.3 | 63.0 | 1.16 | 46.7 | 43.5 |
| Allie Haabala | - | 22 | 14.3 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | -7 | -0.3 | -1.9 | 44.4 | 39.1 | 61.1 | -1.17 | 53.6 | 51.6 |
| Elizabeth Wagner | - | 20 | 11.1 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 17 | 0.8 | 7.0 | 54.8 | 0.0 | 66.7 | 2.49 | 57.1 | 54.8 |
| Logan Smidt | - | 6 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 7 | 1.4 | 210.0 | 33.3 | 50.0 | 100.0 | - | 64.4 | 50.0 |
| Brylee Iverson | - | 9 | 6.3 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | -3 | -0.3 | -6.1 | 25.0 | 27.3 | 50.0 | -1.07 | 38.8 | 37.5 |
| Kennadi Buchholz | - | 10 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 14 | 1.4 | 420.0 | 42.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.67 | 50.8 | 42.9 |
| Christina Wagner | - | 13 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 20 | 1.5 | 28.7 | 30.0 | 25.0 | 0 | 1.94 | 40.0 | 40.0 |
| Allison Milbrandt | - | 12 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | -16 | -1.2 | -104.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.15 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG