Southwest Minn. St.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1088 (#60) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1153 (#68) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1029 (#175) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +15.4 (#42) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +19.9 (#58) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.753 (#182) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.976 (#130) | NetEff +31.3 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.954 (#73) | AdjNet +26.2 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.956 (#71) | AdjNet +26.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.852 (#80) | AdjO 81.3 | AdjD 62.1 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.795 (#21) | AdjO 74.6 | AdjD 59.7 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.805 (#65) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.802 (#59) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1049 (#181) | RD 96 | GP 23 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Fort Hays St. | L | 56 - 65 |
| 2025-11-16 | @ | Neb.-Kearney | L | 75 - 77 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Sioux Falls | W | 79 - 71 |
| 2025-11-29 | vs | MSU Moorhead | L | 68 - 78 |
| 2025-11-30 | vs | Jamestown | W | 69 - 66 |
| 2025-12-04 | @ | Augustana (SD) | L | 75 - 97 |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Wayne St. (NE) | W | 75 - 71 |
| 2025-12-08 | vs | North Central (MN) | W | 104 - 68 |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | Concordia-St. Paul | W | 80 - 71 |
| 2025-12-14 | @ | Winona St. | W | 76 - 56 |
| 2025-12-18 | vs | Minnesota St. | W | 78 - 66 |
| 2025-12-20 | vs | St. Cloud St. | W | 64 - 54 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Sioux Falls | L | 78 - 81 |
| 2026-01-09 | @ | Bemidji St. | W | 85 - 55 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Minn. Duluth | W | 71 - 62 |
| 2026-01-16 | vs | Minot St. | W | 72 - 60 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Mary | W | 76 - 48 |
| 2026-01-23 | vs | MSU Moorhead | W | 71 - 69 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Minn.-Crookston | W | 90 - 46 |
| 2026-01-30 | @ | Jamestown | L | 71 - 74 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Northern St. | L | 63 - 70 |
| 2026-02-05 | @ | St. Cloud St. | L | 47 - 49 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Minnesota St. | L | 71 - 74 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Braaten | - | 23 | 31.2 | 15.0 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 10.9 | 13.6 | 107 | 4.9 | 25.4 | 51.8 | 42.9 | 81.8 | -0.51 | 60.4 | 56.0 |
| Aeron Stevens | - | 22 | 28.2 | 13.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 10.5 | 8.1 | 141 | 6.7 | 34.1 | 43.7 | 23.9 | 68.7 | 0.33 | 52.3 | 47.4 |
| Micah Schlaak | - | 23 | 29.7 | 11.4 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 8.3 | 11.2 | 192 | 8.3 | 45.2 | 50.0 | 44.0 | 74.4 | 1.1 | 63.5 | 61.6 |
| Mekhi Shaw | - | 23 | 26.1 | 11.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 9.6 | 7.0 | 98 | 4.5 | 24.8 | 45.5 | 42.2 | 54.5 | 0.57 | 52.8 | 51.6 |
| Mason Lund | - | 23 | 28.5 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 123 | 5.6 | 33.7 | 48.3 | 42.7 | 81.0 | 0.95 | 64.7 | 61.2 |
| Isaiah Schafer | - | 6 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 14 | 2.3 | 28.1 | 53.8 | 56.0 | 0 | 0.84 | 80.8 | 80.8 |
| Landon Pokorski | - | 23 | 22.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 162 | 7.0 | 49.1 | 45.9 | 43.9 | 75.0 | 2.58 | 60.5 | 58.7 |
| Brayson Boike | - | 23 | 17.5 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 34 | 1.5 | 14.3 | 39.2 | 34.1 | 45.5 | 0.04 | 48.3 | 48.1 |
| Buay Koak | - | 4 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 3 | 0.8 | 25.5 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 0 | 0.05 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Calvin Buss | - | 23 | 14.6 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 4.6 | 41 | 1.9 | 17.9 | 63.6 | 14.3 | 50.0 | -0.26 | 64.2 | 65.2 |
| Caleb Schlaak | - | 7 | 5.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 4 | 0.6 | 16.7 | 50.0 | 0 | 42.9 | 1.46 | 49.6 | 50.0 |
| Ethan Koltz | - | 5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.6 | -6 | -1.2 | -109.9 | 66.7 | 0 | 0 | -0.47 | 66.7 | 66.7 |
| Luke Stevens | - | 3 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | -11 | -3.7 | -201.5 | 100.0 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.47 | 69.4 | 100.0 |
| Reece Kircher | - | 1 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG