Southern Nazarene
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 993 (#283) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1019 (#256) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 988 (#462) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +9.4 (#85) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +12.5 (#180) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.811 (#237) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.290 (#336) | NetEff -6.8 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.978 (#106) | AdjNet +32.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.981 (#104) | AdjNet +33.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.871 (#109) | AdjO 71.8 | AdjD 50.8 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.587 (#184) | AdjO 63.6 | AdjD 59.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.664 (#221) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.649 (#231) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1039 (#218) | RD 108 | GP 19 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-19 | @ | Texas Woman's | L | 44 - 78 |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | Lubbock Christian | L | 49 - 72 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | UT Permian Basin | L | 47 - 49 |
| 2025-11-29 | vs | Mo. Southern St. | L | 75 - 85 |
| 2025-12-04 | @ | Southern Ark. | W | 54 - 52 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Ark.-Monticello | W | 74 - 57 |
| 2025-12-11 | @ | East Central | L | 49 - 55 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Southwestern Okla. | W | 70 - 57 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Southeastern Okla. | W | 80 - 70 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Arkansas Tech | L | 55 - 63 |
| 2026-01-15 | @ | Henderson St. | L | 85 - 96 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Ouachita Baptist | W | 84 - 83 |
| 2026-01-22 | @ | Okla. Baptist | L | 73 - 81 |
| 2026-01-30 | vs | Ark.-Monticello | W | 66 - 49 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Southern Ark. | W | 68 - 41 |
| 2026-02-05 | @ | Arkansas Tech | L | 51 - 87 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Harding | L | 47 - 50 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jillian Crawford | - | 17 | 32.9 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 9.5 | 4.9 | -25 | -0.7 | -7.1 | 39.1 | 26.3 | 72.4 | -0.15 | 46.6 | 43.8 |
| Boston Berry | - | 17 | 21.9 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 38 | 2.0 | 16.3 | 33.3 | 28.8 | 78.3 | 1.43 | 45.6 | 39.4 |
| Nessa Begay | - | 13 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 9 | 0.6 | 4.4 | 52.1 | 25.0 | 70.0 | -1.15 | 57.9 | 52.7 |
| Jordan Hoffman | - | 16 | 25.7 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 5 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 41.6 | 32.3 | 56.0 | -0.3 | 49.6 | 46.5 |
| Shannon Burton | - | 17 | 18.9 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 31 | 1.6 | 12.3 | 47.3 | 38.9 | 83.3 | 1.2 | 56.5 | 51.1 |
| Halyn Browning | - | 17 | 21.9 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 2.9 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 40 | 2.1 | 16.6 | 29.1 | 32.3 | 76.7 | 0.57 | 43.4 | 38.2 |
| Carley Gasaway | - | 15 | 11.9 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 4.5 | 3.6 | -23 | -1.4 | -21.6 | 39.7 | 39.0 | 92.3 | -1.28 | 60.4 | 56.6 |
| Braci Nyberg | - | 17 | 23.0 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 21 | 1.1 | 6.4 | 36.0 | 20.0 | 73.7 | -1.87 | 47.2 | 40.1 |
| Hannah Duncan | - | 16 | 20.3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 3.2 | 5.9 | 5 | 0.3 | 7.6 | 36.5 | 14.3 | 35.0 | -3.25 | 39.5 | 39.4 |
| Jena Bay | - | 17 | 10.8 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 36 | 1.9 | 33.0 | 30.8 | 28.6 | 83.3 | 1.9 | 41.2 | 38.5 |
| Lexi Mackey | - | 16 | 8.2 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 19 | 1.1 | 11.5 | 39.1 | 50.0 | 70.0 | 2.24 | 47.4 | 41.3 |
| Hannah Weston | - | 6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | - | - | - | 20.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -0.38 | 25.5 | 20.0 |
| Keeley Chaddick | - | 6 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -3 | -0.5 | -33.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mia Singstock | - | 6 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | -3 | -0.5 | -41.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.84 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Silvia Otokhagua | - | 2 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Kezia Grant-Bobb | - | 1 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG