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Southern Me.

Also known as: Southern Me.
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1171 (#12) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1312 (#15) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1245 (#12) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +16.2 (#53) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +16.1 (#146) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.745 (#334) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +30.9 More → 0.984 (#96) NetEff +30.9
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +5.4 More → 0.651 (#323) AdjNet +5.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +5.0 More → 0.645 (#323) AdjNet +5.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 61.4 | AdjD 58.3 More → 0.570 (#319) AdjO 61.4 | AdjD 58.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 73.6 | AdjD 53.9 More → 0.858 (#31) AdjO 73.6 | AdjD 53.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.887 (#71) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.892 (#62) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 100 | GP 23 More → 1354 (#15) RD 100 | GP 23

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-12 vs Neb. Wesleyan L 52 - 66
2025-11-12 vs U New England W 76 - 58
2025-11-15 @ Me.-Presque Isle W 88 - 25
2025-11-19 @ Emmanuel (MA) W 86 - 77
2025-11-25 @ Bates L 66 - 70
2025-11-30 vs St. Joseph's (ME) W 70 - 35
2025-12-03 @ UMass Boston W 64 - 47
2025-12-10 vs Me.-Farmington W 73 - 42
2025-12-13 @ Albertus Magnus W 71 - 44
2025-12-30 @ Maine Maritime W 63 - 51
2026-01-10 @ VTSU Castleton W 84 - 63
2026-01-14 vs UMass Dartmouth W 81 - 54
2026-01-17 vs Eastern Conn. St. W 76 - 62
2026-01-20 @ Thomas (ME) W 81 - 52
2026-01-21 @ Plymouth St. W 75 - 51
2026-01-24 @ WestConn W 82 - 54
2026-01-28 vs UMass Boston W 74 - 51
2026-01-31 vs Keene St. W 67 - 48
2026-02-04 @ Rhode Island Col. L 62 - 70
2026-02-07 @ Eastern Conn. St. W 98 - 72

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Lucy Wiles - 19 30.4 18.3 2.6 2.9 2.3 0.2 2.9 14.2 9.2 129 8.1 92.8 47.8 50.6 73.8 -0.86 58.4 55.9
Jaycie Christopher - 19 33.1 17.9 8.7 3.8 1.2 0.3 1.7 11.2 18.9 176 11.0 187.4 55.4 45.1 88.2 1.45 69.0 64.1
Madelyn Gaughen - 1 40.0 15.0 11.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 6.0 12.0 13.0 - - - 41.7 0 71.4 - 49.7 41.7
Dakota Shipley - 19 27.0 12.1 6.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.3 10.5 11.2 164 10.9 163.0 44.2 29.9 66.0 0.56 52.3 50.0
Haley Debuse - 1 20.0 10.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 8.0 6.0 - - - 50.0 0.0 100.0 - 56.3 50.0
Liz Cote - 19 28.8 8.1 2.7 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.6 8.1 4.4 163 12.5 191.4 33.8 33.8 60.0 1.04 48.6 48.1
Jai'La Porter - 1 24.0 8.0 3.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 6.0 - - - 42.9 0 100.0 - 50.8 42.9
Freda Moore - 1 26.0 8.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 4.0 1.0 - - - 75.0 100.0 25.0 - 69.4 87.5
Avah Ingalls - 19 27.5 7.4 4.5 3.2 1.7 0.9 2.2 5.5 10.0 91 7.0 122.4 46.7 27.3 72.3 -0.37 56.1 51.0
Lexi Barnes - 1 21.0 4.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 -1.0 23 1.1 7.4 50.0 0 0.0 0.01 45.0 50.0
Ella Klusman - 1 20.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 4.0 - - - 20.0 0.0 100.0 - 34.0 20.0
Meghan Keil - 1 19.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 7.0 -2.0 - - - 14.3 16.7 0 - 21.4 21.4
Izzy Morelli - 18 8.0 2.8 1.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 2.3 2.1 14 0.9 29.9 41.5 16.7 75.0 -1.27 50.2 42.7
Lexi Morin - 8 4.4 2.5 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 2.6 0.9 -3 -0.5 -9.5 28.6 25.0 77.8 -1.14 40.1 31.0
Lita Guslens - 18 6.6 1.8 1.8 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.0 1.7 17 1.3 87.7 41.7 0 28.6 -0.85 40.9 41.7
Baleria Yugu - 10 5.2 1.8 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 1.3 1.1 36 5.1 126.5 38.5 0.0 80.0 -0.94 51.7 38.5
Ali Portas - 11 5.5 1.7 1.1 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.5 41 4.6 149.5 36.8 66.7 50.0 -1.06 47.8 47.4
Morgan Cunningham - 12 6.2 1.3 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7 1.9 0.2 14 2.0 47.3 26.1 11.8 100.0 -1.41 33.5 30.4
Julia Kratzer - 19 11.8 1.2 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.8 1.5 2.1 61 3.8 109.3 28.6 28.6 50.0 -0.64 39.8 39.3
Franki Bello - 10 5.4 1.2 1.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.8 27 3.9 116.8 36.4 0 57.1 -0.99 42.6 36.4
Emma Stred - 11 6.2 1.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.9 1.3 1 0.1 3.2 40.0 0.0 60.0 -0.85 45.1 40.0
Campbell Doughty - 17 6.6 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.3 62 4.4 222.8 33.3 16.7 50.0 1.21 37.8 36.7
Hope Elias - 13 5.4 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.3 1.2 0.6 17 1.7 96.5 20.0 23.1 0 0.33 30.0 30.0
Bri Townsend - 6 2.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 - - - 50.0 50.0 0 - 75.0 75.0
Alexandra Portas - 1 3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 -2.0 41 4.6 149.5 0.0 0.0 0 -1.06 0.0 0.0
Kathryn Gaughen - 1 29.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 5.0 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG