Southern Ark.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 921 (#432) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1012 (#270) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 901 (#611) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +10.7 (#110) | HCA +2.9 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +4.9 (#286) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.623 (#320) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.576 (#253) | NetEff +2.3 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.881 (#219) | AdjNet +17.4 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.893 (#214) | AdjNet +18.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.747 (#213) | AdjO 71.9 | AdjD 60.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.436 (#488) | AdjO 59.6 | AdjD 62.4 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.546 (#316) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.511 (#341) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 983 (#269) | RD 98 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Newman | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Ark.-Fort Smith | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-18 | @ | Delta St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-21 | vs | UT Permian Basin | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Lubbock Christian | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Christian Brothers | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-04 | vs | Southern Nazarene | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Okla. Baptist | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-09 | @ | Arkansas St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-15 | @ | Arkansas Tech | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-20 | vs | Ouachita Baptist | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-03 | @ | Harding | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | East Central | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-15 | vs | Southwestern Okla. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Northwestern Okla. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-22 | @ | Ark.-Monticello | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Henderson St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-30 | @ | Okla. Baptist | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Southern Nazarene | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | East Central | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Southeastern Okla. | - | Incomplete score |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blythe Crawley | - | 19 | 32.7 | 11.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 12.3 | 2.5 | -11 | -0.5 | -1.6 | 36.8 | 33.6 | 76.2 | -0.38 | 46.5 | 44.9 |
| Hope Bump | - | 19 | 23.9 | 9.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 9.6 | 3.4 | -13 | -0.6 | -2.6 | 33.3 | 32.9 | 76.5 | -1.93 | 45.8 | 40.7 |
| Elena Lijo-Rodriguez | - | 19 | 24.1 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 38 | 1.8 | 7.5 | 46.2 | 0 | 56.4 | 2.67 | 48.0 | 46.2 |
| Kadia Ward | - | 19 | 29.7 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 8.7 | 5.9 | -148 | -7.0 | -23.4 | 32.1 | 22.9 | 57.8 | 4.6 | 39.9 | 35.5 |
| Kennedy Moss | - | 19 | 18.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 7.0 | 4.8 | -17 | -0.8 | -3.8 | 45.9 | 25.0 | 68.0 | -0.03 | 51.7 | 49.6 |
| Shiloh Fletcher | - | 19 | 18.9 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 27 | 1.3 | 7.5 | 36.5 | 30.0 | 81.8 | 2.35 | 47.2 | 40.9 |
| Marlee Bright | - | 19 | 33.2 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 3.8 | 11.2 | -9 | -0.4 | -1.4 | 45.8 | 10.0 | 60.5 | 0.39 | 50.7 | 46.5 |
| Johnna Brockman | - | 19 | 14.7 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 3.9 | 3.2 | -31 | -1.5 | -10.4 | 41.3 | 40.0 | 36.0 | -2.53 | 47.1 | 48.0 |
| Teresa Dorado | - | 8 | 9.6 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | -37 | -4.6 | -30.8 | 29.4 | 22.2 | 80.0 | -3.45 | 46.7 | 35.3 |
| Bella Frisby | - | 3 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 4 | 1.3 | 69.6 | 75.0 | 50.0 | 0 | - | 87.5 | 87.5 |
| Yagmur Canguven | - | 9 | 6.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 11 | 1.1 | 22.7 | 46.2 | 40.0 | 50.0 | 1.34 | 54.2 | 53.8 |
| Ainsley Hall | - | 4 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2 | 0.5 | 19.1 | 50.0 | 0 | 50.0 | 4.19 | 52.1 | 50.0 |
| Kathryn Stiffler | - | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Krista Rivers | - | 1 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG