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Southern Ark.

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2017 2016
Also known as: Southern Ark.
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 909 (#376) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1000 (#249) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 899 (#533) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +10.1 (#99) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +7.1 (#211) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.413 (#387) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +13.4 More → 0.827 (#217) NetEff +13.4
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +6.2 More → 0.671 (#319) AdjNet +6.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +6.3 More → 0.675 (#322) AdjNet +6.3
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 77.6 | AdjD 72.5 More → 0.615 (#309) AdjO 77.6 | AdjD 72.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 72.6 | AdjD 70.6 More → 0.545 (#221) AdjO 72.6 | AdjD 70.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.545 (#283) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.527 (#294) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 100 | GP 22 More → 917 (#323) RD 100 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-03 @ Houston Christian L 70 - 74
2025-11-14 @ Winona St. L 59 - 60
2025-11-15 @ Bemidji St. W 85 - 83
2025-11-22 @ Rogers St. L 88 - 96
2025-11-25 vs Mississippi Col. W 95 - 76
2025-11-28 @ Texas-Dallas W 100 - 79
2025-11-29 @ DBU L 85 - 99
2025-12-04 vs Southern Nazarene L 69 - 79
2025-12-06 vs Okla. Baptist W 80 - 78
2025-12-15 @ Arkansas Tech W 84 - 80
2025-12-18 vs Henderson St. L 70 - 80
2025-12-20 vs Ouachita Baptist L 51 - 66
2026-01-03 @ Harding L 52 - 66
2026-01-08 @ Southeastern Okla. L 87 - 96
2026-01-10 @ East Central W 78 - 74
2026-01-15 vs Southwestern Okla. W 73 - 54
2026-01-17 vs Northwestern Okla. L 64 - 69
2026-01-22 @ Ark.-Monticello L 57 - 68
2026-01-30 @ Okla. Baptist L 55 - 76
2026-01-31 @ Southern Nazarene L 51 - 66
2026-02-05 vs East Central L 58 - 59
2026-02-07 vs Southeastern Okla. W 83 - 79

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Greg Moore Jr. - 22 29.5 13.8 3.2 2.6 1.5 0.0 2.6 10.8 7.7 -68 -3.2 -13.6 39.1 37.9 82.1 -2.12 55.6 50.2
Roderick Williams Jr - 22 28.0 12.7 5.6 0.8 0.3 0.5 2.0 8.7 9.2 - - - 55.5 40.7 78.1 - 62.7 58.4
Jair Horton - 22 28.3 10.4 5.8 1.6 0.9 0.2 1.7 7.8 9.5 -71 -3.4 -15.5 44.4 41.8 72.0 0.5 56.1 51.2
Troy'reon Ramos - 22 30.7 10.1 3.2 3.0 1.0 0.0 1.9 10.4 5.1 -91 -4.3 -19.0 36.4 33.3 70.6 0.26 45.7 43.4
Kendal Parker - 15 21.9 8.8 3.7 1.5 1.2 0.1 1.9 6.7 6.7 -14 -7.0 -16.8 51.5 29.6 76.9 -1.13 58.7 55.4
Jakourion Key - 21 25.1 8.4 3.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 1.0 6.4 5.8 -43 -2.1 -10.6 50.0 17.9 61.7 -1.18 54.9 51.9
Chase Jenkins - 19 12.6 4.3 2.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.4 3.5 3.4 -36 -2.1 -19.5 44.8 30.4 71.4 0.5 53.8 50.0
Albert Wilson III - 7 12.2 4.0 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.9 3.3 4.3 41 6.8 55.8 47.8 50.0 66.7 0.01 54.6 52.2
John Probey - 20 9.1 2.9 1.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 2.2 2.6 -79 -4.2 -48.0 44.4 33.3 56.2 -1.96 55.7 54.4
Jayce Tillman - 6 12.4 2.7 2.2 0.7 0.0 0.2 0.0 3.0 2.7 -8 -1.6 -8.5 27.8 20.0 83.3 -0.88 38.8 30.6
Nevi Tell - 20 10.3 1.9 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.8 1.6 2.0 1 0.1 0.6 36.4 21.4 66.7 0.71 47.7 40.9
Zac Pennington - 15 7.3 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 1.7 0.7 -35 -2.5 -36.4 16.0 15.0 50.0 -1.5 23.2 22.0
John Carter Metz - 15 6.4 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.3 -0.5 -8 -0.6 -14.5 20.0 10.0 0 -0.24 22.5 22.5
Zane Pennington - 7 2.9 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0 0.0 0.0 25.0 0.0 100.0 -0.5 41.0 25.0
Donavhn Sanford - 6 2.7 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.5 -18 -3.0 -757.9 100.0 0 0 -0.39 100.0 100.0
Matthew Turner - 7 2.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 - - - 0.0 0.0 100.0 - 34.7 0.0
Ed Kornbacher - 4 3.8 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.0 0.2 -2 -0.5 -18.4 0 0 0 -0.12 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG