🐻⬇️🏀

Southern Ark.

Also known as: Southern Ark.
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 894 (#473) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 953 (#331) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 899 (#533) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.7 More → +8.3 (#151) HCA +2.7
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +7.1 (#211) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.413 (#387) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +13.4 More → 0.827 (#217) NetEff +13.4
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +6.2 More → 0.671 (#319) AdjNet +6.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +6.3 More → 0.675 (#322) AdjNet +6.3
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 77.6 | AdjD 72.5 More → 0.615 (#309) AdjO 77.6 | AdjD 72.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 72.6 | AdjD 70.6 More → 0.545 (#221) AdjO 72.6 | AdjD 70.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.545 (#283) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.527 (#294) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 100 | GP 22 More → 921 (#325) RD 100 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-03 @ Houston Christian - Incomplete score
2025-11-14 @ Winona St. - Incomplete score
2025-11-15 @ Bemidji St. - Incomplete score
2025-11-22 @ Rogers St. - Incomplete score
2025-11-25 vs Mississippi Col. - Incomplete score
2025-11-28 @ Texas-Dallas - Incomplete score
2025-11-29 @ DBU - Incomplete score
2025-12-04 vs Southern Nazarene - Incomplete score
2025-12-06 vs Okla. Baptist - Incomplete score
2025-12-15 @ Arkansas Tech - Incomplete score
2025-12-18 vs Henderson St. - Incomplete score
2025-12-20 vs Ouachita Baptist - Incomplete score
2026-01-03 @ Harding - Incomplete score
2026-01-08 @ Southeastern Okla. - Incomplete score
2026-01-10 @ East Central - Incomplete score
2026-01-15 vs Southwestern Okla. - Incomplete score
2026-01-17 vs Northwestern Okla. - Incomplete score
2026-01-22 @ Ark.-Monticello - Incomplete score
2026-01-30 @ Okla. Baptist - Incomplete score
2026-01-31 @ Southern Nazarene - Incomplete score
2026-02-05 vs East Central - Incomplete score
2026-02-07 vs Southeastern Okla. - Incomplete score

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Greg Moore Jr. - 21 29.9 13.5 3.3 2.7 1.3 0.0 2.5 10.8 7.6 -68 -3.2 -13.6 38.5 37.1 81.1 -1.79 54.7 49.3
Roderick Williams Jr - 21 28.3 12.9 5.6 0.8 0.3 0.5 2.0 8.9 9.2 - - - 54.8 38.5 78.1 - 62.1 57.5
Jair Horton - 21 28.3 10.5 6.0 1.7 0.9 0.2 1.8 7.7 9.7 -71 -3.4 -15.5 45.3 40.4 73.6 0.49 57.1 51.9
Troy'reon Ramos - 21 30.7 10.0 3.2 3.0 0.9 0.0 1.8 10.1 5.0 -91 -4.3 -19.0 36.2 34.8 72.7 0.31 45.9 43.4
Kendal Parker - 15 21.9 8.8 3.7 1.5 1.2 0.1 1.9 6.7 6.7 -14 -7.0 -16.8 51.5 29.6 76.9 1.71 58.7 55.4
Jakourion Key - 20 25.1 8.6 3.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 1.1 6.3 6.0 -43 -2.1 -10.6 52.0 19.2 63.0 -0.37 56.7 53.9
Albert Wilson III - 6 11.5 4.7 3.3 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.5 3.2 5.3 41 6.8 55.8 57.9 66.7 66.7 3.36 64.7 63.2
Chase Jenkins - 18 12.0 4.1 2.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 3.4 2.9 -36 -2.1 -19.5 42.6 33.3 71.4 -0.36 52.7 48.4
John Probey - 19 9.4 3.1 1.5 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 2.4 2.8 -79 -4.2 -48.0 44.4 33.3 56.2 -4.95 55.7 54.4
Jayce Tillman - 5 12.1 2.8 2.2 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 2.8 3.2 -8 -1.6 -8.5 28.6 20.0 83.3 -1.84 42.1 32.1
Nevi Tell - 19 10.4 1.8 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.8 1.7 2.1 1 0.1 0.6 37.5 21.4 57.1 0.97 45.9 42.2
Zac Pennington - 14 7.4 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.4 1.6 0.8 -35 -2.5 -36.4 17.4 16.7 50.0 -1.77 25.1 23.9
John Carter Metz - 15 6.4 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.3 -0.5 -8 -0.6 -14.5 20.0 10.0 0 1.42 22.5 22.5
Zane Pennington - 7 2.9 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0 0.0 0.0 25.0 0.0 100.0 -1.77 41.0 25.0
Donavhn Sanford - 6 2.7 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.5 -18 -3.0 -757.9 100.0 0 0 - 100.0 100.0
Matthew Turner - 6 2.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.3 - - - 0.0 0 100.0 - 53.2 0.0
Ed Kornbacher - 4 3.8 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.0 0.2 -2 -0.5 -18.4 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG