Southern Ark.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 894 (#473) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 953 (#331) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 899 (#533) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +8.3 (#151) | HCA +2.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +7.1 (#211) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.413 (#387) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.827 (#217) | NetEff +13.4 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.671 (#319) | AdjNet +6.2 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.675 (#322) | AdjNet +6.3 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.615 (#309) | AdjO 77.6 | AdjD 72.5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.545 (#221) | AdjO 72.6 | AdjD 70.6 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.545 (#283) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.527 (#294) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 921 (#325) | RD 100 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-03 | @ | Houston Christian | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Winona St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Bemidji St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Rogers St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Mississippi Col. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-28 | @ | Texas-Dallas | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | DBU | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-04 | vs | Southern Nazarene | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Okla. Baptist | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-15 | @ | Arkansas Tech | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-18 | vs | Henderson St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-20 | vs | Ouachita Baptist | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-03 | @ | Harding | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-08 | @ | Southeastern Okla. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | East Central | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-15 | vs | Southwestern Okla. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Northwestern Okla. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-22 | @ | Ark.-Monticello | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-30 | @ | Okla. Baptist | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Southern Nazarene | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | East Central | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Southeastern Okla. | - | Incomplete score |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Moore Jr. | - | 21 | 29.9 | 13.5 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 10.8 | 7.6 | -68 | -3.2 | -13.6 | 38.5 | 37.1 | 81.1 | -1.79 | 54.7 | 49.3 |
| Roderick Williams Jr | - | 21 | 28.3 | 12.9 | 5.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 8.9 | 9.2 | - | - | - | 54.8 | 38.5 | 78.1 | - | 62.1 | 57.5 |
| Jair Horton | - | 21 | 28.3 | 10.5 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 7.7 | 9.7 | -71 | -3.4 | -15.5 | 45.3 | 40.4 | 73.6 | 0.49 | 57.1 | 51.9 |
| Troy'reon Ramos | - | 21 | 30.7 | 10.0 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 10.1 | 5.0 | -91 | -4.3 | -19.0 | 36.2 | 34.8 | 72.7 | 0.31 | 45.9 | 43.4 |
| Kendal Parker | - | 15 | 21.9 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 6.7 | 6.7 | -14 | -7.0 | -16.8 | 51.5 | 29.6 | 76.9 | 1.71 | 58.7 | 55.4 |
| Jakourion Key | - | 20 | 25.1 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 6.3 | 6.0 | -43 | -2.1 | -10.6 | 52.0 | 19.2 | 63.0 | -0.37 | 56.7 | 53.9 |
| Albert Wilson III | - | 6 | 11.5 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 41 | 6.8 | 55.8 | 57.9 | 66.7 | 66.7 | 3.36 | 64.7 | 63.2 |
| Chase Jenkins | - | 18 | 12.0 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | -36 | -2.1 | -19.5 | 42.6 | 33.3 | 71.4 | -0.36 | 52.7 | 48.4 |
| John Probey | - | 19 | 9.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 2.8 | -79 | -4.2 | -48.0 | 44.4 | 33.3 | 56.2 | -4.95 | 55.7 | 54.4 |
| Jayce Tillman | - | 5 | 12.1 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 3.2 | -8 | -1.6 | -8.5 | 28.6 | 20.0 | 83.3 | -1.84 | 42.1 | 32.1 |
| Nevi Tell | - | 19 | 10.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 37.5 | 21.4 | 57.1 | 0.97 | 45.9 | 42.2 |
| Zac Pennington | - | 14 | 7.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | -35 | -2.5 | -36.4 | 17.4 | 16.7 | 50.0 | -1.77 | 25.1 | 23.9 |
| John Carter Metz | - | 15 | 6.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.3 | -0.5 | -8 | -0.6 | -14.5 | 20.0 | 10.0 | 0 | 1.42 | 22.5 | 22.5 |
| Zane Pennington | - | 7 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -1.77 | 41.0 | 25.0 |
| Donavhn Sanford | - | 6 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | -18 | -3.0 | -757.9 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Matthew Turner | - | 6 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 100.0 | - | 53.2 | 0.0 |
| Ed Kornbacher | - | 4 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | -2 | -0.5 | -18.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG