Sonoma St.
Also known as: Sonoma St.
Program History
Model Outputs
2024-2025
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1069 (#110) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1023 (#143) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1061 (#88) | HCA +68 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +7.6 (#116) | HCA +2.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +11.8 (#63) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.552 (#133) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.702 (#129) | AdjNet +7.4 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.704 (#133) | AdjNet +7.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.570 (#154) | AdjO 60.8 | AdjD 57.7 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.607 (#93) | AdjO 62.3 | AdjD 57.6 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.656 (#113) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.662 (#108) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1057 (#114) | RD 125 | GP 30 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | Legacy estimate | Earlier model estimate; no qualified current forecast. |
2024-2025 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-08 | @ | Dominican (CA) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2024-11-09 | @ | Fresno Pacific | - | Incomplete score |
| 2024-11-14 | vs | Jessup | - | Incomplete score |
| 2024-11-16 | @ | Menlo | - | Incomplete score |
| 2024-11-21 | vs | Academy of Art | - | Incomplete score |
| 2024-11-23 | vs | UC Merced | - | Incomplete score |
| 2024-11-30 | vs | Cal St. San Marcos | - | Incomplete score |
| 2024-12-05 | vs | CSUSB | - | Incomplete score |
| 2024-12-07 | vs | Cal Poly Pomona | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-01-02 | @ | San Fran. St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-01-04 | @ | Cal St. East Bay | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-01-09 | vs | Cal State LA | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-01-11 | vs | Cal St. Dom. Hills | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-01-16 | vs | Cal Poly Humboldt | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-01-18 | vs | Chico St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-01-23 | @ | Stanislaus St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-01-25 | @ | Cal St. Monterey Bay | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-01-30 | @ | Cal St. Dom. Hills | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-02-01 | @ | Cal State LA | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-02-06 | vs | Cal St. East Bay | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-02-08 | vs | San Fran. St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-02-13 | @ | Cal Poly Pomona | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-02-15 | @ | CSUSB | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-02-17 | @ | Cal St. San Marcos | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-02-20 | vs | Cal St. Monterey Bay | W | 73 - 56 |
| 2025-02-22 | vs | Stanislaus St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-02-27 | @ | Chico St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-03-01 | @ | Cal Poly Humboldt | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-03-06 | @ | CSUSB | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-03-07 | @ | Cal St. Dom. Hills | - | Incomplete score |
2024-2025 Roster
Estimated Minutes by Position
Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alysa Lopez | - | 29 | 25.1 | 13.1 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 12.2 | 5.3 | 28 | 26 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 40.5 | 28.4 | 74.4 | 0.0 | 48.5 | 44.6 |
| Jayme Blackard | - | 30 | 30.2 | 12.0 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 22 | 27 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 39.0 | 32.1 | 77.1 | 0.48 | 49.6 | 41.8 |
| Jennifer Moreno | - | 30 | 17.7 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 50 | 27 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 36.1 | 26.1 | 67.3 | 0.69 | 45.6 | 42.1 |
| Madisyn Clark | - | 12 | 15.5 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 6.1 | 1.2 | -44 | 8 | -5.5 | -9.4 | 35.6 | 26.3 | 72.2 | -4.85 | 46.3 | 42.5 |
| Sheriene Arikat | - | 30 | 20.4 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 9 | 27 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 36.2 | 26.7 | 71.8 | 0.09 | 43.0 | 39.5 |
| Sienna Cherwinski | - | 30 | 20.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 5.4 | 0.6 | -37 | 27 | -1.4 | -2.7 | 25.2 | 21.7 | 68.2 | -3.3 | 35.3 | 32.8 |
| Abbey Hadsell | - | 29 | 13.5 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 23 | 24 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 44.2 | 26.1 | 75.9 | 0.09 | 52.0 | 47.4 |
| Paige Pentzer | - | 12 | 11.7 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 3.6 | -27 | 9 | -3.0 | -8.8 | 31.7 | 14.3 | 85.0 | -2.1 | 44.2 | 32.9 |
| Sydney Peterson | - | 30 | 8.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 3 | 26 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 48.7 | 25.0 | 56.0 | -1.56 | 51.1 | 49.4 |
| Eryn Gardner | - | 29 | 17.6 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 8 | 25 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 34.9 | 33.3 | 56.7 | -0.08 | 39.5 | 35.5 |
| Genesis Hopkins | - | 30 | 10.6 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 4.3 | 42 | 26 | 1.6 | 5.6 | 40.9 | 0.0 | 73.6 | 1.09 | 55.7 | 40.9 |
| Meredith Gilbertson | - | 30 | 12.9 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 18 | 27 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 30.9 | 22.7 | 72.4 | -0.76 | 42.1 | 34.6 |
| Ixchel Rojo | - | 30 | 8.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 50 | 26 | 1.9 | 8.4 | 26.6 | 13.8 | 83.3 | 1.81 | 36.8 | 29.7 |
| Corrie Harrison | - | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.11 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG