Simon Fraser
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 929 (#432) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1026 (#235) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 849 (#653) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +8.6 (#91) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +2.3 (#324) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.487 (#368) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.313 (#332) | NetEff -5.6 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.758 (#290) | AdjNet +9.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.771 (#293) | AdjNet +10.3 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.647 (#291) | AdjO 72.9 | AdjD 66.2 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.518 (#314) | AdjO 65.1 | AdjD 64.3 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.491 (#370) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.474 (#376) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 872 (#412) | RD 101 | GP 24 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | @ | Colorado Mesa | L | 54 - 61 |
| 2025-11-02 | vs | Minot St. | W | 68 - 62 |
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Westmont | L | 54 - 92 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Vanguard | L | 41 - 76 |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | Adams St. | W | 49 - 42 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Jamestown | W | 55 - 45 |
| 2025-11-28 | @ | Colorado Mesa | L | 52 - 81 |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | Fort Lewis | W | 74 - 67 |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Seattle Pacific | W | 57 - 54 |
| 2025-12-05 | @ | Mont. St. Billings | W | 76 - 61 |
| 2025-12-19 | vs | N.M. Highlands | W | 69 - 68 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | Eastern N.M. | L | 71 - 74 |
| 2026-01-01 | vs | Saint Martin's | L | 53 - 71 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Western Ore. | L | 49 - 68 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Northwest Nazarene | L | 64 - 81 |
| 2026-01-15 | vs | Alas. Anchorage | L | 72 - 79 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Alas. Fairbanks | W | 109 - 46 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Western Wash. | L | 40 - 66 |
| 2026-01-29 | @ | Western Ore. | L | 63 - 67 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Saint Martin's | L | 55 - 66 |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Northwest Nazarene | L | 71 - 77 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Central Wash. | L | 76 - 84 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachel Loukes | - | 22 | 33.3 | 15.6 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 3.7 | 14.0 | 10.0 | -78 | -3.2 | -12.4 | 36.7 | 30.3 | 74.8 | -1.42 | 47.3 | 40.4 |
| Bree Neufeld | - | 22 | 32.0 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 10.9 | 9.2 | 4 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 40.2 | 34.6 | 75.7 | 0.87 | 52.3 | 50.0 |
| Sophie Bergeron | - | 21 | 30.1 | 10.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 11.1 | 7.2 | 24 | 1.1 | 4.5 | 36.3 | 32.9 | 58.8 | 2.47 | 44.1 | 41.9 |
| Haley de Walle | - | 22 | 25.0 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 2.9 | 8.6 | 2.9 | -79 | -3.4 | -16.7 | 33.9 | 31.2 | 68.2 | -1.74 | 47.5 | 44.4 |
| Rilyn Quirke | - | 22 | 24.4 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 7.1 | 5.6 | -28 | -1.2 | -5.5 | 30.6 | 0 | 70.0 | -0.63 | 34.4 | 30.6 |
| Zoe Sharpe | - | 22 | 23.1 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.6 | -55 | -2.4 | -10.9 | 32.2 | 22.7 | 62.7 | 2.09 | 43.9 | 35.0 |
| Tonya Karpow | - | 13 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 28 | 2.0 | 26.4 | 23.5 | 11.1 | 81.8 | 0.44 | 33.5 | 25.0 |
| Gwendilyn Aasland | - | 3 | 10.5 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 0.3 | - | - | - | 25.0 | 0 | 0.0 | - | 23.3 | 25.0 |
| Anja Tjernagel | - | 4 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 3 | 0.6 | 6.7 | 30.0 | 40.0 | 0 | 1.26 | 40.0 | 40.0 |
| Sahnya Gill | - | 12 | 11.4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 2.5 | -40 | -3.3 | -30.8 | 40.0 | 0 | 50.0 | 0.48 | 41.6 | 40.0 |
| Oceanne Paradis | - | 22 | 13.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | -18 | -0.8 | -7.0 | 48.1 | 50.0 | 44.4 | -0.78 | 53.3 | 53.7 |
| Alyssa Buwalda | - | 17 | 9.6 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 26 | 1.4 | 9.4 | 33.3 | 0 | 53.8 | -0.19 | 40.1 | 33.3 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG