🐻⬇️🏀

Shorter

Also known as: Shorter
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1024 (#199) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1023 (#244) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 1006 (#336) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → -3.4 (#211) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → +1.2 (#346) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.265 (#454) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -6.3 More → 0.325 (#461) AdjNet -6.3
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -6.2 More → 0.326 (#462) AdjNet -6.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 59.6 | AdjD 63.8 More → 0.407 (#464) AdjO 59.6 | AdjD 63.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 59.3 | AdjD 58.6 More → 0.516 (#321) AdjO 59.3 | AdjD 58.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.448 (#401) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.475 (#374) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 98 | GP 22 More → 1015 (#233) RD 98 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-04 @ Kennesaw St. L 36 - 85
2025-11-14 vs Clayton St. L 75 - 77
2025-11-15 @ Flagler W 93 - 88
2025-11-22 @ Francis Marion L 67 - 74
2025-11-25 vs Southern Wesleyan W 69 - 50
2025-11-29 @ Montevallo L 47 - 67
2025-12-03 @ Catawba W 62 - 54
2025-12-06 vs Miles L 56 - 70
2025-12-13 @ Barton L 0 - 0
2025-12-16 @ Emmanuel (GA) W 56 - 46
2025-12-20 vs Georgia College L 55 - 57
2025-12-31 vs Edward Waters L 42 - 54
2026-01-03 vs Chowan L 48 - 57
2026-01-13 vs Erskine W 89 - 51
2026-01-17 @ North Greenville W 61 - 53
2026-01-19 vs Young Harris W 56 - 50
2026-01-21 @ Southern Wesleyan W 71 - 62
2026-01-29 vs King (TN) L 60 - 68
2026-01-31 vs Lees-McRae W 63 - 55
2026-02-04 vs Emmanuel (GA) W 61 - 59
2026-02-07 @ Ferrum L 61 - 63

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Amiya Redus - 20 36.1 14.7 2.8 1.8 2.1 0.1 2.7 14.5 4.2 61 3.0 22.2 35.9 28.7 67.4 -2.51 44.5 40.2
Chelsy Singleton - 20 27.0 11.1 4.0 3.2 2.0 0.4 2.6 9.5 8.6 106 5.6 43.3 43.7 45.1 82.5 3.01 53.5 49.7
Amya Patterson - 20 33.9 10.2 3.9 1.2 1.1 0.6 2.5 8.6 5.8 78 3.9 32.8 39.0 31.3 87.8 1.34 52.4 46.5
Aijah Manning - 20 29.7 10.1 7.3 1.7 1.4 0.6 2.8 8.6 9.8 79 4.2 36.3 48.8 0.0 55.9 -0.58 50.8 48.8
Ahtiana Benway - 12 15.4 5.7 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 4.4 1.9 - - - 41.5 40.0 71.4 - 57.5 54.7
Amari Butler - 20 17.4 5.0 2.2 0.6 1.4 0.4 1.6 5.2 2.8 68 3.6 45.8 32.7 27.0 44.7 0.95 39.7 37.5
DNaylah Williams - 12 16.4 4.4 3.3 0.2 0.7 0.1 1.6 3.6 3.6 9 0.4 3.2 48.8 0 68.8 -2.02 53.0 48.8
Kalyn Williams - 13 9.9 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.6 1 0.1 0.9 64.3 0.0 30.8 -1.05 55.8 64.3
Jordan Kierbow - 13 8.9 1.4 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 1.1 1.3 1.8 - - - 29.4 14.3 87.5 - 43.9 32.4
Jaliyah Zackery - 15 8.3 1.2 2.3 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.7 3 0.2 3.3 42.1 0 50.0 -1.72 43.4 42.1
Rhyan Wilson - 19 17.8 1.2 3.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.5 1.2 3.8 6 0.3 2.6 45.5 0 33.3 0.95 44.6 45.5
Ashley Washington - 6 3.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.0 -29 -1.9 -48.5 50.0 0 0 -1.44 50.0 50.0
Shiloh Small - 3 2.1 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.3 - - - 33.3 0 0 - 33.3 33.3
KeYanna Gupton - 6 2.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 -5 -1.0 -162.2 100.0 0 0.0 -0.77 69.4 100.0
Chandler Duncan - 4 2.8 0.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.2 - - - 0.0 0 50.0 - 26.6 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG