🐻⬇️🏀

Shorter

Also known as: Shorter
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 945 (#324) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 878 (#468) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 836 (#581) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → -7.2 (#273) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → -10.8 (#466) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.317 (#434) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +6.8 More → 0.665 (#237) NetEff +6.8
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -6.2 More → 0.328 (#494) AdjNet -6.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -6.2 More → 0.328 (#494) AdjNet -6.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 77.1 | AdjD 81.9 More → 0.394 (#494) AdjO 77.1 | AdjD 81.9
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 73.4 | AdjD 81.5 More → 0.323 (#525) AdjO 73.4 | AdjD 81.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.249 (#508) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.254 (#514) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 96 | GP 21 More → 782 (#460) RD 96 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 vs Georgia College L 70 - 99
2025-11-15 vs Middle Georgia L 91 - 93
2025-11-18 vs AUM W 78 - 76
2025-11-22 @ Francis Marion L 86 - 98
2025-11-25 vs Southern Wesleyan W 90 - 84
2025-12-02 @ AUM L 84 - 86
2025-12-09 vs Point U. W 98 - 84
2025-12-13 @ Barton L 87 - 93
2025-12-16 @ Emmanuel (GA) L 83 - 87
2025-12-31 vs Albany St. (GA) L 86 - 91
2026-01-03 vs Chowan W 85 - 84
2026-01-07 @ Belmont Abbey W 80 - 69
2026-01-09 @ Converse L 69 - 77
2026-01-13 vs Erskine W 66 - 49
2026-01-17 @ North Greenville L 63 - 68
2026-01-19 vs Young Harris W 91 - 84
2026-01-21 @ Southern Wesleyan L 77 - 86
2026-01-29 vs King (TN) L 86 - 90
2026-01-31 vs Lees-McRae L 68 - 80
2026-02-04 vs Emmanuel (GA) L 71 - 84
2026-02-07 @ Ferrum L 79 - 99

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Donovan Shangase - 21 38.1 19.3 2.8 5.4 1.3 0.1 2.9 13.7 12.2 -80 -3.8 -21.9 44.4 38.9 84.0 -2.73 59.5 53.0
Chris Bibbs - 20 34.7 19.2 6.8 3.6 1.1 0.5 2.1 11.9 17.1 -21 -1.1 -9.0 55.9 39.0 75.7 -1.12 66.7 62.6
Ja'Myas Davis - 21 37.4 14.3 5.2 3.0 0.3 0.2 3.4 11.1 8.4 -87 -4.1 -22.9 41.0 31.3 62.1 -2.49 52.6 48.7
Jalien Bush - 21 31.3 9.5 4.5 1.9 1.5 0.4 0.8 7.5 9.4 -87 -4.1 -24.6 46.8 32.5 80.6 -2.0 58.0 55.1
Axel Holmquist - 21 26.4 9.1 6.1 1.0 0.3 0.3 1.3 7.5 8.0 -12 -0.6 -4.8 54.8 0.0 41.3 -0.86 53.9 54.8
David Compere - 20 15.9 3.9 1.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 3.1 2.4 -72 -4.0 -46.3 41.9 35.9 61.1 -2.89 55.1 53.2
Michael Johnson - 16 9.6 3.9 3.7 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.7 4.9 -35 -2.3 -73.9 65.1 0 46.7 0.46 63.5 65.1
Redick Smith - 13 9.9 3.4 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 2.2 2.6 14 1.3 9.5 46.4 41.2 91.7 2.81 66.1 58.9
Cole Hulsey - 4 4.4 1.8 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.2 3 1.0 17.6 40.0 25.0 100.0 0.02 59.5 50.0
Aiden Nematbakhsh - 17 7.0 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.8 -28 -1.9 -34.2 40.0 0.0 57.1 -1.18 44.2 40.0
Cal Rich - 5 2.8 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 -10 -2.5 -92.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 -0.18 17.4 0.0
David Noll III - 3 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.3 2 1.0 31.4 0.0 0.0 0 0.15 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG