Shepherd
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 804 (#510) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 816 (#494) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 953 (#554) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -6.0 (#224) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -1.7 (#392) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.131 (#518) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.328 (#327) | NetEff -5.1 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.103 (#593) | AdjNet -18.7 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.103 (#591) | AdjNet -18.3 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.257 (#588) | AdjO 59.3 | AdjD 71.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.463 (#443) | AdjO 63.2 | AdjD 64.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.413 (#436) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.423 (#427) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 918 (#344) | RD 102 | GP 20 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | @ | Bowie St. | L | 72 - 82 |
| 2025-11-16 | @ | Shaw | W | 81 - 52 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Virginia Union | L | 50 - 69 |
| 2025-11-26 | vs | Point Park | W | 74 - 52 |
| 2025-11-30 | @ | Fairmont St. | L | 63 - 83 |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Gannon | L | 51 - 68 |
| 2025-12-16 | @ | Slippery Rock | L | 72 - 76 |
| 2025-12-20 | vs | Edinboro | L | 63 - 86 |
| 2026-01-02 | @ | Clarion | L | 74 - 81 |
| 2026-01-03 | @ | Pitt.-Johnstown | L | 57 - 63 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | East Stroudsburg | L | 67 - 74 |
| 2026-01-15 | @ | Millersville | L | 63 - 69 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Mansfield | W | 80 - 62 |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | West Chester | L | 59 - 71 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Kutztown | W | 66 - 63 |
| 2026-01-29 | @ | Bloomsburg | W | 56 - 51 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Lock Haven | L | 58 - 59 |
| 2026-02-02 | vs | Shippensburg | W | 72 - 57 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | East Stroudsburg | W | 74 - 68 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamaria Estridge | - | 19 | 28.3 | 16.5 | 6.1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 15.4 | 7.7 | -60 | -3.0 | -13.0 | 43.8 | 33.9 | 67.9 | 1.31 | 49.4 | 47.1 |
| Kara Wehner | - | 17 | 31.0 | 13.9 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 11.2 | 8.8 | -37 | -2.2 | -6.7 | 45.0 | 39.5 | 93.8 | 1.63 | 57.5 | 53.9 |
| Grace Middleton | - | 17 | 18.2 | 7.4 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 5.3 | 5.7 | -52 | -2.9 | -43.0 | 53.3 | 40.0 | 70.3 | -0.59 | 59.3 | 55.6 |
| Jenna Liska | - | 17 | 16.8 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 6.4 | 5.1 | -56 | -3.5 | -22.2 | 39.4 | 10.0 | 78.9 | -0.14 | 43.5 | 39.9 |
| Trinity Turner | - | 19 | 27.3 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 2.9 | 6.5 | 4.1 | -59 | -3.0 | -14.7 | 30.6 | 35.7 | 54.7 | -0.01 | 37.3 | 32.7 |
| Cassidy Rhodes | - | 19 | 27.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 7.1 | 1.1 | -30 | -1.5 | -9.6 | 26.1 | 23.9 | 55.6 | 0.24 | 35.9 | 34.3 |
| Vilte Kacerauskaite | - | 19 | 16.6 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 12 | 0.6 | 3.7 | 35.6 | 23.1 | 50.0 | 3.07 | 44.0 | 42.5 |
| Summer Shackelford | - | 19 | 21.9 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 4.0 | 5.2 | -41 | -2.2 | -13.7 | 38.2 | 11.1 | 74.2 | -0.99 | 45.7 | 38.8 |
| Samiyah Nasir | - | 19 | 15.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 4.8 | 2.4 | -57 | -2.9 | -36.7 | 30.8 | 22.2 | 72.4 | -0.99 | 39.0 | 33.0 |
| Kelly Ours | - | 11 | 7.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 22 | 2.2 | 30.2 | 22.2 | 23.5 | 75.0 | 1.2 | 38.0 | 33.3 |
| Leah Snisky | - | 5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG