Shepherd
Model Outputs
2024-2025
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1081 (#66) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1115 (#63) | - |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +6.3 (#140) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.644 (#256) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.682 (#125) | NetEff +6.5 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.709 (#290) | AdjNet +7.7 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.712 (#292) | AdjNet +7.7 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.625 (#300) | AdjO 71.2 | AdjD 65.6 |
2025 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-08 | vs | Winston-Salem | W | 69 - 66 |
| 2024-11-09 | @ | Virginia St. | L | 50 - 93 |
| 2024-11-13 | vs | Frostburg St. | W | 73 - 62 |
| 2024-11-16 | @ | West Liberty | L | 72 - 92 |
| 2024-11-22 | @ | Seton Hill | W | 70 - 62 |
| 2024-11-23 | @ | California (PA) | W | 66 - 61 |
| 2024-11-27 | @ | Bowie St. | L | 56 - 62 |
| 2024-12-06 | vs | Indiana (PA) | W | 68 - 57 |
| 2024-12-07 | vs | Clarion | W | 71 - 57 |
| 2024-12-13 | @ | Virginia Union | W | 61 - 51 |
| 2024-12-17 | @ | Gannon | L | 72 - 92 |
| 2024-12-21 | vs | Pitt.-Johnstown | W | 80 - 65 |
| 2025-01-03 | vs | West Chester | L | 47 - 55 |
| 2025-01-06 | @ | East Stroudsburg | L | 75 - 85 |
| 2025-01-08 | @ | Mansfield | W | 94 - 57 |
| 2025-01-11 | vs | Millersville | W | 63 - 52 |
| 2025-01-15 | vs | Lock Haven | W | 73 - 64 |
| 2025-01-22 | @ | Bloomsburg | W | 64 - 52 |
| 2025-01-25 | vs | Kutztown | W | 59 - 36 |
| 2025-01-29 | @ | Shippensburg | W | 65 - 51 |
| 2025-02-01 | vs | East Stroudsburg | L | 70 - 71 |
| 2025-02-05 | @ | West Chester | L | 49 - 57 |
| 2025-02-08 | vs | Bloomsburg | W | 81 - 71 |
| 2025-02-15 | @ | Lock Haven | L | 62 - 67 |
| 2025-02-19 | vs | Mansfield | W | 91 - 57 |
| 2025-02-22 | @ | Kutztown | L | 65 - 71 |
| 2025-02-26 | vs | Shippensburg | W | 58 - 46 |
| 2025-03-01 | @ | Millersville | W | 75 - 68 |
| 2025-03-03 | vs | Shippensburg | W | 78 - 62 |
| 2025-03-05 | @ | East Stroudsburg | W | 79 - 67 |
| 2025-03-08 | vs | California (PA) | W | 84 - 74 |
| 2025-03-09 | @ | Gannon | L | 58 - 74 |
2025 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Paar | - | 32 | 29.9 | 14.1 | 8.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 9.4 | 14.9 | 33 | 1.2 | 3.8 | 55.8 | 21.4 | 67.9 | 0.45 | 60.7 | 56.8 |
| Marcus Banks | - | 30 | 32.2 | 12.4 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 9.5 | 10.1 | -2 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 43.7 | 34.1 | 76.0 | 0.36 | 54.9 | 48.8 |
| Carson Poffenberger | - | 32 | 23.8 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 6.6 | 8.3 | -8 | -0.3 | -1.1 | 48.8 | 38.8 | 79.6 | 0.0 | 61.1 | 57.8 |
| Jarod Robinson | - | 32 | 33.1 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 26 | 1.0 | 3.2 | 36.2 | 28.6 | 80.0 | 1.17 | 50.8 | 44.0 |
| Brody Davis | - | 32 | 24.4 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 12 | 0.2 | 3.4 | 33.2 | 28.5 | 72.2 | 0.55 | 46.0 | 44.8 |
| Cole Paar | - | 32 | 14.1 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 6.6 | 4.0 | -28 | -1.6 | -12.1 | 42.9 | 32.3 | 37.8 | 0.11 | 47.5 | 47.9 |
| Elwyne Wordlaw | - | 30 | 20.9 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 5.9 | 3.5 | -22 | -0.9 | -6.1 | 38.1 | 30.9 | 78.3 | 0.23 | 50.7 | 46.3 |
| Michael Cooper | - | 29 | 9.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | -86 | -5.7 | -51.6 | 30.0 | 27.9 | 56.2 | -0.14 | 42.5 | 40.6 |
| Favor Okigweh | - | 29 | 8.8 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 78 | 2.8 | 53.4 | 61.9 | 100.0 | 36.8 | -0.02 | 59.6 | 63.1 |
| Brendan Doleman | - | 28 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 7 | 3.5 | 365.2 | 50.0 | 100.0 | 0 | -1.81 | 75.0 | 75.0 |
| Colton Hartman | - | 28 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | - | - | - | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Aidan Hughley | - | 28 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 33.3 | 50.0 | - | 52.5 | 50.0 |
| Ariel Goddot | - | 28 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 9 | 4.5 | 128.6 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | -1.35 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Asher Rudolph | - | 28 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 33.3 | 33.3 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG