Shepherd
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1081 (#66) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1091 (#112) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1109 (#69) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +6.5 (#147) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +8.6 (#181) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.644 (#256) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.888 (#199) | NetEff +20.4 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.709 (#290) | AdjNet +7.7 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.712 (#292) | AdjNet +7.7 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.625 (#300) | AdjO 71.2 | AdjD 65.6 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.653 (#102) | AdjO 75.5 | AdjD 68.5 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.702 (#137) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.702 (#130) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1169 (#66) | RD 96 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Virginia St. | W | 64 - 62 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Winston-Salem | W | 63 - 52 |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | Bowie St. | W | 76 - 66 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | West Liberty | L | 81 - 89 |
| 2025-11-26 | @ | Frostburg St. | L | 83 - 105 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Virginia Union | L | 49 - 68 |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Gannon | L | 79 - 91 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Seton Hill | W | 66 - 63 |
| 2025-12-16 | @ | Slippery Rock | L | 61 - 70 |
| 2025-12-20 | vs | Edinboro | W | 83 - 64 |
| 2026-01-02 | @ | Clarion | W | 80 - 77 |
| 2026-01-03 | @ | Pitt.-Johnstown | W | 66 - 62 |
| 2026-01-07 | vs | Lock Haven | W | 96 - 75 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | East Stroudsburg | L | 72 - 74 |
| 2026-01-15 | @ | Millersville | L | 60 - 69 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Mansfield | W | 95 - 67 |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | West Chester | L | 73 - 80 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Kutztown | W | 72 - 56 |
| 2026-01-29 | @ | Bloomsburg | W | 65 - 54 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Lock Haven | W | 78 - 73 |
| 2026-02-02 | vs | Shippensburg | W | 84 - 57 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | East Stroudsburg | W | 100 - 95 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Banks | - | 22 | 33.9 | 18.6 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 12.8 | 15.4 | 86 | 4.1 | 16.5 | 43.3 | 28.6 | 76.7 | 1.75 | 55.9 | 46.5 |
| Elwyne Wordlaw | - | 21 | 30.9 | 16.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 12.9 | 7.0 | 55 | 2.6 | 12.1 | 49.4 | 36.4 | 77.8 | -0.87 | 59.5 | 57.4 |
| Colby White | - | 22 | 29.6 | 10.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 51 | 2.3 | 11.1 | 40.5 | 39.2 | 71.4 | -1.23 | 53.6 | 52.0 |
| Brody Davis | - | 22 | 33.0 | 10.0 | 6.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 7.5 | 9.9 | -4 | -0.3 | -5.0 | 47.6 | 44.5 | 76.5 | -0.62 | 63.4 | 62.3 |
| Favor Okigweh | - | 22 | 30.6 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 7.7 | 12.1 | 83 | 3.8 | 18.8 | 51.2 | 0.0 | 43.9 | 2.33 | 51.0 | 51.2 |
| Daouda Traore | - | 21 | 23.8 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 5.0 | 7.9 | 65 | 3.2 | 18.7 | 63.8 | 27.3 | 62.2 | 1.17 | 66.0 | 65.2 |
| Xavier Kirk | - | 8 | 6.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | -14 | -2.3 | -85.3 | 33.3 | 36.4 | 50.0 | 0.88 | 50.5 | 50.0 |
| Tristan Cook | - | 10 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.4 | - | - | - | 44.4 | 33.3 | 66.7 | - | 57.9 | 50.0 |
| Colton Hartman | - | 22 | 13.9 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 32 | 1.5 | 14.8 | 35.3 | 0 | 100.0 | 1.65 | 37.3 | 35.3 |
| Cole Hoffman | - | 15 | 8.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | -45 | -3.5 | -66.6 | 42.1 | 0 | 0.0 | -1.59 | 38.5 | 42.1 |
| Asher Rudolph | - | 7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | -0.1 | - | - | - | 25.0 | 25.0 | 0 | - | 37.5 | 37.5 |
| Mohamed Bailor Barrie | - | 7 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 50.0 | - | 56.8 | 0 |
| Cole Paar | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG