Shenandoah
Model Outputs
2026-2027
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 967 (#204) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 978 (#193) | HCA +61 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 982 (#205) | HCA +61 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -4.0 (#242) | HCA +1.9 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -4.1 (#241) | HCA +1.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.379 (#221) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.475 (#212) | AdjNet -6.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.475 (#213) | AdjNet -6.9 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.462 (#208) | AdjO 65.8 | AdjD 70.5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.456 (#221) | AdjO 65.8 | AdjD 70.5 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.441 (#218) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.440 (#218) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 965 (#203) | RD 218 | GP 1 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | 0.499 (#184) | Preseason prior only; more training games are needed for a forecast. |
2026-2027 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | vs | Gettysburg | L | 53 - 62 |
2026-2027 Roster
No roster data available for this season.