San Diego State
2026-2027 Team Stats (4 games)
67.5
PPG
57.0
Opp
+10.5
Margin
45.2%
FG%
27.8%
3P%
74.0%
FT%
34.8
RPG
13.5
APG
14.8
TO
69.8
Est. poss./game
60.8
Adj PPG
60.2
Adj Opp PPG
#85
Scoring Rank
Model Outputs
2026-2027
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1318 (#42) | Preseason prior 1355 (returning production + recruiting): last season 1113, returning +112, transfers +130, freshmen +0 |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1194 (#46) | HCA +169 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1189 (#47) | HCA +169 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +10.9 (#90) | HCA +1.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +10.9 (#90) | HCA +1.6 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.903 (#61) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.797 (#61) | AdjNet +9.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.802 (#67) | AdjNet +9.3 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.663 (#85) | AdjO 60.8 | AdjD 60.2 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.660 (#85) | AdjO 60.8 | AdjD 60.3 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.745 (#75) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.745 (#75) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1223 (#44) | RD 171 | GP 4 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | 0.828 (#54) | Chronological component blend with rest and venue. |
Rank through the season
League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.
Recency Ensemble
Log Adjusted
Elo
Points Off/Def Recency
2026-2027 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | vs | Cal State Fullerton Titans | W | 77 - 51 |
| 2026-11-05 | vs | North Texas Mean Green | W | 73 - 57 |
| 2026-11-08 | vs | UTSA Roadrunners | W | 65 - 56 |
| 2026-11-11 | vs | Colorado Buffaloes | L | 55 - 64 |
| 2026-11-19 | @ | Cal State Northridge Matadors | - | Preview |
2026-2027 Roster
Estimated Minutes by Position
Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Natalia Martinez
|
G | 4 | 30.8 | 13.2 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 45 | 4 | 11.2 | 14.8 | 42.9 | 45.5 | 81.2 | 3.54 | 63.0 | 57.1 |
Dionne Madjo
|
F | 4 | 21.2 | 11.0 | 4.2 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 5.8 | 10.8 | 16 | 4 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 65.2 | 0 | 73.7 | -0.86 | 70.2 | 65.2 |
Eva DeChent
|
G | 4 | 25.0 | 10.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 5 | 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 51.7 | 22.2 | 75.0 | -2.15 | 59.8 | 55.2 |
Bailey Barnhard
|
F | 4 | 27.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 36 | 4 | 9.0 | 13.5 | 39.4 | 25.0 | 57.1 | 1.88 | 44.3 | 42.4 |
Alayna Kraus
|
G | 4 | 19.5 | 7.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 39 | 4 | 9.8 | 19.8 | 54.5 | 50.0 | 75.0 | 2.49 | 61.0 | 59.1 |
Izzy Navarro
|
G | 1 | 20.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 12.0 | 9 | 1 | 9.0 | 17.6 | 40.0 | 50.0 | 0 | -0.53 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
Nayli Padilla
|
G | 4 | 24.2 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 10 | 4 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 32.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -1.54 | 36.1 | 32.0 |
Kennedy Lee
|
F | 4 | 16.8 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 12 | 4 | 3.0 | 7.1 | 33.3 | 25.0 | 66.7 | 1.99 | 44.0 | 41.7 |
Mayenabasi Akpan
|
F | 4 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 7 | 4 | 1.8 | 10.9 | 75.0 | 0 | 60.0 | -0.45 | 73.5 | 75.0 |
Mairead Hearty
|
F | 1 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 6 | 1 | 6.0 | 30.8 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -0.13 | 38.7 | 33.3 |
Alyssa Jackson
|
G | 4 | 15.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 18 | 4 | 4.5 | 11.5 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -1.61 | 31.1 | 25.0 |
Maria Konstantinidou
|
F | 4 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 6.7 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.74 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
Ellie Chen
|
G | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3 | 1 | 3.0 | 41.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.15 | 0 | 0 |
Naomi Panganiban
|
G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG
2026-2027 Shot Zones
217 located field-goal attempts in 4 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).
Natalia MartinezEva DeChentDionne MadjoBailey BarnhardAlayna KrausNayli PadillaKennedy LeeAlyssa Jackson
| Zone | FGM-FGA | FG% | Pts | Top scorer | Runner-up | Most misses | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restricted area | 41-58 | 70.7 | 82 | Dionne Madjo 29% (24 pts) | Bailey Barnhard 12% (10 pts) | Bailey Barnhard 29% (5 misses) | Alyssa Jackson 24% (4 misses) |
| Paint (non-RA) | 19-45 | 42.2 | 38 | Eva DeChent 21% (8 pts) | Dionne Madjo 16% (6 pts) | Bailey Barnhard 27% (7 misses) | Dionne Madjo 15% (4 misses) |
| Mid-range left | 9-20 | 45.0 | 18 | Alayna Kraus 44% (8 pts) | Bailey Barnhard 22% (4 pts) | Natalia Martinez 27% (3 misses) | Alayna Kraus 18% (2 misses) |
| Mid-range center | 5-10 | 50.0 | 10 | Alayna Kraus 40% (4 pts) | Bailey Barnhard 40% (4 pts) | Alayna Kraus 20% (1 misses) | Alyssa Jackson 20% (1 misses) |
| Mid-range right | 4-12 | 33.3 | 8 | Eva DeChent 50% (4 pts) | Kennedy Lee 25% (2 pts) | Alayna Kraus 38% (3 misses) | Nayli Padilla 25% (2 misses) |
| Left corner 3 | 0-2 | 0.0 | 0 | - | - | Bailey Barnhard 50% (1 misses) | Eva DeChent 50% (1 misses) |
| Right corner 3 | 2-7 | 28.6 | 6 | Alayna Kraus 100% (6 pts) | - | Alyssa Jackson 60% (3 misses) | Izzy Navarro 20% (1 misses) |
| Above-break 3 left | 5-20 | 25.0 | 15 | Bailey Barnhard 40% (6 pts) | Eva DeChent 20% (3 pts) | Natalia Martinez 33% (5 misses) | Nayli Padilla 27% (4 misses) |
| Above-break 3 center | 2-20 | 10.0 | 6 | Natalia Martinez 100% (6 pts) | - | Kennedy Lee 39% (7 misses) | Natalia Martinez 22% (4 misses) |
| Above-break 3 right | 11-23 | 47.8 | 33 | Natalia Martinez 64% (21 pts) | Kennedy Lee 27% (9 pts) | Nayli Padilla 33% (4 misses) | Eva DeChent 25% (3 misses) |