Samford
Model Outputs
2003-2004
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | Data withheld: source-integrity hold | Historical Elo fit predates the season cutoff fix and includes an unverified participant universe. |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1207 (#241) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 944 (#234) | HCA +114 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +20.3 (#279) | HCA +3.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -8.8 (#271) | HCA +3.5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.370 (#278) | AdjO 59.6 | AdjD 65.4 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.306 (#262) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.306 (#263) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 853 (#258) | RD 163 | GP 24 |
2004 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003-11-23 | @ | Purdue | L | 50 - 66 |
| 2003-11-29 | @ | New Orleans | L | 60 - 62 |
| 2003-12-05 | @ | Winthrop | W | 66 - 64 |
| 2003-12-06 | N | Southern Mississippi | L | 61 - 81 |
| 2003-12-13 | @ | Ohio State | L | 62 - 80 |
| 2003-12-22 | @ | Memphis | L | 62 - 63 |
| 2003-12-30 | @ | Oklahoma State | L | 50 - 65 |
| 2004-01-06 | vs | Jacksonville State | W | 58 - 48 |
| 2004-01-10 | @ | Tennessee State | L | 48 - 60 |
| 2004-01-15 | @ | Murray State | W | 61 - 58 |
| 2004-01-17 | @ | Tennessee–Martin | W | 51 - 45 |
| 2004-01-22 | vs | Morehead State | L | 60 - 65 |
| 2004-01-24 | vs | Eastern Kentucky | L | 86 - 95 |
| 2004-01-29 | vs | Eastern Illinois | W | 73 - 69 |
| 2004-01-31 | vs | Southeast Missouri State | W | 70 - 58 |
| 2004-02-05 | @ | Tennessee Tech | L | 83 - 90 |
| 2004-02-07 | @ | Austin Peay | L | 56 - 61 |
| 2004-02-12 | @ | Eastern Kentucky | L | 43 - 63 |
| 2004-02-14 | @ | Morehead State | L | 52 - 65 |
| 2004-02-18 | vs | Austin Peay | L | 46 - 68 |
| 2004-02-21 | vs | Tennessee Tech | W | 74 - 69 |
| 2004-02-24 | @ | Jacksonville State | L | 51 - 71 |
| 2004-02-26 | vs | Tennessee State | W | 86 - 70 |
| 2004-03-02 | @ | Eastern Kentucky | L | 61 - 81 |
2004 Roster
Minutes by Position
Not enough player minute data to plot.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Ramelli | C | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Eddie Harper | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| J. Robert Merritt | F | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Tyson Dorsey | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Jerry Smith | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Josh Hare | F | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Sebastian Sachse | C | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Bryan Boerjan | F | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Jon Mills | F | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Randall Gulina | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Anthony LoPiano | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Beau Green | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Greg Zimny | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG