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Salem St.

Model Outputs

2026-2027
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More โ†’ 1020 (#156) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. HCA +62 elo More โ†’ 1060 (#125) HCA +62 elo
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More โ†’ 1020 (#136) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +1.6 More โ†’ -1.7 (#198) HCA +1.6
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +1.6 More โ†’ -2.1 (#203) HCA +1.6
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More โ†’ 0.495 (#172) -
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 73.2 | AdjD 79.3 More โ†’ 0.528 (#154) AdjO 73.2 | AdjD 79.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 73.2 | AdjD 79.3 More โ†’ 0.499 (#173) AdjO 73.2 | AdjD 79.3
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 216 | GP 1 More โ†’ 1053 (#132) RD 216 | GP 1

2026-2027 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2026-11-11 vs Emerson L 74 - 87

2026-2027 Roster

No roster data available for this season.