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Saint Rose

Season: 2023-2024 2022-2023 2021-2022 2020-2021 2019-2020 2018-2019 2016-2017 2015-2016 2014-2015 2013-2014
Also known as: Saint Rose
Program History

Model Outputs

2023-2024
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1124 (#81) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1179 (#57) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1035 (#108) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.5 More → +11.8 (#73) HCA +2.5
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.4 More → +5.0 (#133) HCA +2.4
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.906 (#15) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +21.3 More → 0.921 (#46) AdjNet +21.3
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +21.6 More → 0.928 (#45) AdjNet +21.6
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 60.6 | AdjD 48.8 More → 0.745 (#56) AdjO 60.6 | AdjD 48.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 57.7 | AdjD 52.6 More → 0.614 (#87) AdjO 57.7 | AdjD 52.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.757 (#70) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.734 (#73) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 123 | GP 24 More → 1163 (#63) RD 123 | GP 24
Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. Earlier model estimate; no qualified current forecast. More → Legacy estimate Earlier model estimate; no qualified current forecast.

2023-2024 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2023-11-15 @ Pace - Incomplete score
2023-11-19 @ Vermont L 44 - 60
2023-11-21 vs Assumption - Incomplete score
2023-11-26 vs Bridgeport - Incomplete score
2023-11-29 vs Franklin Pierce - Incomplete score
2023-12-02 @ Southern Conn. St. - Incomplete score
2023-12-05 vs Saint Michael's - Incomplete score
2023-12-08 @ Caldwell - Incomplete score
2023-12-11 vs Roberts Wesleyan - Incomplete score
2023-12-30 @ D'Youville - Incomplete score
2024-01-03 @ American Int'l - Incomplete score
2024-01-06 @ Bentley - Incomplete score
2024-01-10 vs Saint Anselm - Incomplete score
2024-01-13 @ Adelphi - Incomplete score
2024-01-16 vs Southern N.H. W 53 - 46
2024-01-20 @ New Haven - Incomplete score
2024-01-24 @ Assumption - Incomplete score
2024-01-27 vs Pace - Incomplete score
2024-01-30 @ Franklin Pierce - Incomplete score
2024-02-03 vs Southern Conn. St. - Incomplete score
2024-02-07 @ Saint Michael's - Incomplete score
2024-02-10 vs American Int'l - Incomplete score
2024-02-13 @ Saint Anselm - Incomplete score
2024-02-17 vs Bentley - Incomplete score
2024-02-21 vs Adelphi - Incomplete score
2024-02-24 vs New Haven - Incomplete score
2024-02-27 @ Southern N.H. - Incomplete score
2024-03-03 vs Southern Conn. St. - Incomplete score
2024-03-15 vs Daemen - Incomplete score

2023-2024 Roster

Estimated Minutes by Position

Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
PAYTON GRABER - 26 32.6 12.1 5.8 2.4 2.0 0.5 2.9 10.9 9.0 - - - - 36.7 35.0 71.9 - 48.9 44.3
SYRITA FARAJ - 26 31.7 11.0 4.8 1.1 0.6 0.1 1.4 11.7 4.4 - - - - 35.7 29.8 63.6 - 43.6 41.3
MADDISYN MAHONEY - 26 33.2 10.8 6.1 2.3 0.6 0.7 2.7 8.7 9.1 151 23 6.6 7.8 51.8 0 63.5 -1.19 54.3 51.8
ANIYA MCDONALD-PERRY - 26 34.5 8.5 10.6 1.5 2.0 0.4 2.2 6.6 14.2 - - - - 41.9 0.0 78.8 - 51.5 41.9
KAELAH CARTER - 26 21.8 7.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.3 1.5 6.5 2.5 - - - - 44.1 28.2 63.0 - 51.4 50.0
CATHERINE FINNERTY - 26 23.6 4.1 3.0 1.9 0.8 0.2 1.4 5.1 3.7 160 23 7.0 11.9 34.8 0.0 68.2 4.4 37.8 34.8
RYLEY BLASETTI - 20 6.9 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.9 37 13 2.8 12.3 44.0 0.0 66.7 -0.23 50.6 44.0
JAYLA TYLER - 25 4.0 0.9 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.9 - - - - 26.9 0 60.0 - 35.3 26.9
MARIA OLLIVIERRE - 25 1.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 18 7 2.6 27.2 38.5 33.3 75.0 1.17 57.6 53.8
HARMONY PHILO - 23 2.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 - - - - 37.5 41.7 0 - 53.1 53.1
ARIANA KUPI - 25 4.8 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.6 1.2 - - - - 40.0 0.0 50.0 - 42.5 40.0
KAILEIGH HUNT - 23 5.6 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.8 - - - - 23.8 0.0 50.0 - 27.5 23.8
SAMIYAH NASIR - 25 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 3 6 0.5 8.8 50.0 0.0 66.7 -1.28 60.2 50.0
MIA MOLINARI - 18 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 - - - - 0.0 0.0 0 0.06 0.0 0.0
Daja Wentz - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG