Saint Michael's
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1065 (#111) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1088 (#113) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 899 (#617) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +1.2 (#160) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -2.8 (#408) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.318 (#434) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.801 (#185) | NetEff +10.5 |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.000 (#521) | NetEff -81.1 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.223 (#507) | AdjNet -10.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.230 (#507) | AdjNet -10.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.373 (#484) | AdjO 59.5 | AdjD 65.2 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.447 (#474) | AdjO 60.0 | AdjD 62.3 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.409 (#439) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.409 (#441) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 840 (#438) | RD 166 | GP 7 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Saint Anselm | L | 79 - 84 |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | American Int'l | L | 66 - 81 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Southern Conn. St. | L | 50 - 59 |
| 2026-01-27 | vs | Bentley | L | 48 - 62 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Assumption | L | 54 - 66 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Southern N.H. | W | 66 - 57 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Adelphi | L | 48 - 55 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margaret Montplaisir | - | 7 | 28.6 | 15.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 64 | 2.7 | 14.1 | 43.3 | 32.6 | 66.7 | 2.39 | 53.9 | 51.7 |
| Jayla Tyler | - | 7 | 27.4 | 13.4 | 9.9 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 11.3 | 12.0 | -15 | -0.6 | -3.1 | 38.0 | 25.0 | 69.8 | -1.46 | 48.0 | 40.5 |
| Ruby Santos | - | 7 | 26.4 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 45 | 1.9 | 9.7 | 36.2 | 5.9 | 82.4 | 1.45 | 43.5 | 37.1 |
| Amber Furch | - | 7 | 21.6 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 6.7 | 0.7 | 47 | 2.5 | 13.7 | 31.9 | 27.3 | 45.5 | -0.03 | 36.7 | 35.1 |
| Bella Franchi | - | 7 | 25.4 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 80 | 3.3 | 18.6 | 26.8 | 7.7 | 66.7 | 4.9 | 30.9 | 28.0 |
| Jasmine Becotte | - | 6 | 11.6 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 33 | 2.2 | 28.0 | 30.0 | 50.0 | 57.1 | 0.99 | 44.0 | 37.5 |
| Molly Brophy | - | 7 | 19.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 78 | 3.7 | 23.4 | 25.0 | 6.2 | 53.8 | -1.0 | 31.2 | 26.4 |
| Ashlee Talbot | - | 7 | 25.3 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 5.9 | 2.0 | -13 | -0.5 | -2.8 | 22.0 | 8.3 | 66.7 | -2.86 | 27.8 | 23.2 |
| Kelli Cieplicki | - | 2 | 9.8 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 58 | 5.3 | 96.6 | 25.0 | 20.0 | 0 | 1.44 | 31.2 | 31.2 |
| Ava MacDonough | - | 7 | 12.3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 51 | 2.4 | 23.3 | 33.3 | 20.0 | 0 | 1.74 | 37.5 | 37.5 |
| Mia Tyler | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Hannah Polumbo | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Brooklyn Taylor | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7 | 1.4 | 43.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.11 | 0 | 0 |
| Julie Lyden | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG