🐻⬇️🏀

Rowan

Also known as: Rowan
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 973 (#295) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1062 (#214) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1071 (#134) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +2.1 (#175) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +0.8 (#359) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.776 (#323) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +8.9 More → 0.790 (#225) NetEff +8.9
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +4.7 More → 0.631 (#332) AdjNet +4.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +4.2 More → 0.622 (#335) AdjNet +4.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 63.3 | AdjD 61.1 More → 0.550 (#331) AdjO 63.3 | AdjD 61.1
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 60.1 | AdjD 56.5 More → 0.580 (#258) AdjO 60.1 | AdjD 56.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.630 (#273) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.626 (#275) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 98 | GP 22 More → 1100 (#160) RD 98 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-09 @ Elizabethtown L 55 - 58
2025-11-12 vs Delaware Valley W 64 - 54
2025-11-19 @ DeSales W 43 - 38
2025-11-22 vs Washington Col. W 63 - 53
2025-11-25 @ Montclair St. L 57 - 64
2025-12-03 @ Rutgers-Camden W 65 - 59
2025-12-10 vs Kean W 88 - 30
2025-12-13 @ Wm. Paterson L 44 - 76
2025-12-30 @ Stevens L 44 - 65
2026-01-10 @ Ramapo W 57 - 50
2026-01-14 @ Stockton L 43 - 55
2026-01-17 vs Rutgers-Newark W 87 - 57
2026-01-21 vs Montclair St. W 62 - 53
2026-01-24 @ New Jersey City W 81 - 69
2026-01-28 vs Rutgers-Camden W 80 - 73
2026-01-31 vs Wm. Paterson L 49 - 58
2026-02-04 @ Kean W 70 - 40
2026-02-07 vs Ramapo W 56 - 42

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Jes Mastriano - 18 20.4 8.0 3.3 1.4 0.2 0.1 1.1 5.3 6.6 -35 -1.7 -11.9 44.8 0 79.5 1.49 56.2 44.8
Haley Selmer - 18 18.0 7.9 6.2 0.9 0.7 0.3 1.9 8.3 5.8 -32 -1.5 -9.7 40.0 0.0 76.7 -0.2 43.8 40.0
Megan Donelson - 18 23.4 7.7 6.1 1.7 1.2 0.2 2.0 7.2 7.5 40 1.9 12.1 38.5 22.7 71.8 2.73 46.9 42.3
Abigail Jazmin - 13 23.9 7.5 3.8 1.6 1.2 0.3 1.8 7.5 5.2 -53 -3.5 -26.5 24.7 20.0 71.7 -0.28 39.7 28.4
Charlotte Carlies - 18 24.7 7.4 7.3 1.2 1.0 1.8 1.9 5.9 10.9 -35 -1.7 -8.4 47.7 0 51.6 1.5 49.9 47.7
Jess McLaughlin - 18 31.4 6.9 2.7 2.1 1.2 0.1 2.6 10.0 0.4 -94 -4.5 -19.7 22.2 25.0 52.5 -0.85 31.6 28.9
Natalia Barrera - 17 16.2 5.7 4.2 1.2 0.6 0.7 1.6 5.0 5.8 -49 -2.5 -23.4 49.4 0 46.4 0.96 49.8 49.4
Ava Kraybill - 18 19.8 3.8 3.1 1.3 1.2 0.2 1.6 4.5 3.5 41 2.0 10.7 25.9 15.4 64.7 3.48 35.4 28.4
Christina Sikaras - 11 10.5 3.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.2 3.0 0.9 -48 -3.4 -40.6 36.4 36.0 53.8 1.02 51.7 50.0
Emily Poulas - 17 13.3 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.4 4.2 0.8 -56 -2.8 -30.5 28.2 23.2 60.0 -1.75 39.1 37.3
Lily Bross - 18 11.0 2.3 2.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.6 3.1 2.7 -48 -2.3 -28.8 27.3 14.3 73.3 -0.76 34.1 28.2
Tuts Davis - 5 5.4 2.0 2.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.8 2.6 -7 -1.2 -76.0 55.6 0 0.0 0.25 53.0 55.6
Vanessa Haas - 3 6.1 1.7 2.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 - - - 25.0 0 100.0 - 47.0 25.0
Adriana Santiago - 4 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.5 -0.2 -10 -2.0 -727.3 50.0 50.0 0 -0.09 75.0 75.0
Talijah Davis - 4 3.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 -7 -1.2 -76.0 0.0 0 100.0 -0.72 53.2 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG