🐻⬇️🏀

Rollins

Also known as: Rollins
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 806 (#509) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 822 (#491) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 864 (#640) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → -16.1 (#274) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → -8.9 (#498) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.440 (#384) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -9.5 More → 0.231 (#354) NetEff -9.5
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -48.8 More → 0.004 (#465) NetEff -48.8
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +3.9 More → 0.611 (#351) AdjNet +3.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +4.1 More → 0.619 (#350) AdjNet +4.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 64.7 | AdjD 61.5 More → 0.573 (#338) AdjO 64.7 | AdjD 61.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 54.3 | AdjD 63.4 More → 0.304 (#610) AdjO 54.3 | AdjD 63.4
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.285 (#533) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.284 (#544) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 100 | GP 22 More → 867 (#407) RD 100 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-15 vs P.R.-Mayaguez W 79 - 37
2025-11-17 vs Fort Lauderdale W 74 - 38
2025-11-22 @ Lynn L 58 - 63
2025-11-24 vs P.R.-Bayamon W 73 - 68
2025-11-29 vs Thomas (GA) W 91 - 56
2025-12-03 vs Florida Tech L 54 - 57
2025-12-06 @ Fla. Southern L 48 - 80
2025-12-13 vs Tampa L 67 - 80
2025-12-15 vs Ave Maria W 62 - 53
2025-12-19 @ Emmanuel (GA) L 62 - 70
2025-12-31 vs Saint Leo L 66 - 83
2026-01-03 @ Barry L 48 - 62
2026-01-10 vs Nova Southeastern L 33 - 89
2026-01-17 @ Palm Beach Atl. L 40 - 79
2026-01-21 vs Embry-Riddle (FL) L 66 - 76
2026-01-24 @ Saint Leo W 70 - 58
2026-01-28 vs Lynn L 45 - 52
2026-01-31 vs Eckerd L 43 - 71
2026-02-04 @ Florida Tech W 53 - 51
2026-02-07 vs Fla. Southern L 53 - 70

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Claire Erickson - 18 33.5 10.7 3.6 3.0 1.3 0.1 1.7 9.1 7.8 -69 -3.8 -16.7 39.0 37.0 68.2 -0.6 52.4 49.4
Zai Mitchell - 8 25.9 10.2 6.6 1.9 1.0 0.4 1.8 8.4 10.0 - - - 41.8 48.0 66.7 - 53.8 50.7
Grace Craig - 20 28.8 9.7 7.9 2.2 0.9 1.4 2.6 8.9 10.4 -43 -1.9 -10.7 46.4 0.0 52.9 -0.09 47.9 46.4
Faith Newton - 20 28.0 9.4 4.7 0.8 0.4 0.8 0.8 10.1 5.1 -39 -1.8 -10.2 33.2 27.7 67.6 0.59 43.3 40.8
Elaina Kline-Ruminski - 18 21.8 9.3 3.2 1.4 1.0 0.3 2.1 10.0 3.1 -26 -1.4 -7.1 37.2 24.6 60.0 0.55 43.5 41.7
Ellie Thompson - 9 24.1 7.6 2.4 3.1 1.2 0.2 1.8 7.8 5.0 - - - 31.4 32.1 50.0 - 44.6 43.6
Victoria Escribano - 20 24.6 5.5 4.8 1.1 0.5 0.2 1.3 5.1 5.7 -118 -5.4 -38.3 39.2 23.1 60.0 -2.68 45.2 40.7
Tara Murray - 16 17.1 4.1 2.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.1 4.7 1.2 3 0.2 5.7 28.0 25.4 64.3 -0.13 40.7 38.0
McKenna Murphy - 19 15.0 3.2 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.8 2.9 2.3 -85 -4.2 -47.0 49.1 0.0 38.9 0.7 48.5 49.1
Jordyn Egger - 16 12.9 2.1 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.9 3.2 0.8 -97 -5.4 -55.5 21.6 24.3 50.0 -0.69 31.3 30.4
Makayla Daube - 18 10.0 1.3 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.7 -24 -1.2 -30.4 36.0 0.0 75.0 0.47 42.1 36.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG