Roanoke
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 933 (#359) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1012 (#315) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 995 (#472) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +4.3 (#144) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +3.7 (#301) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.608 (#399) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.622 (#314) | NetEff +3.7 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.581 (#354) | AdjNet +2.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.572 (#358) | AdjNet +2.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.506 (#369) | AdjO 64.3 | AdjD 64.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.554 (#299) | AdjO 62.5 | AdjD 60.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.619 (#283) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.606 (#292) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1029 (#280) | RD 99 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-12 | @ | William Peace | W | 76 - 62 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Eastern | W | 85 - 52 |
| 2025-11-16 | vs | Centre | L | 59 - 67 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | N.C. Wesleyan | W | 70 - 62 |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Guilford | L | 60 - 63 |
| 2025-12-15 | @ | Catholic | L | 79 - 80 |
| 2025-12-16 | vs | Principia | W | 79 - 76 |
| 2025-12-29 | vs | Geneva | W | 80 - 60 |
| 2025-12-30 | vs | Denison | L | 57 - 80 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | East. Mennonite | W | 70 - 48 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Averett | L | 64 - 73 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Va. Wesleyan | L | 50 - 74 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | Lynchburg | L | 43 - 67 |
| 2026-01-23 | @ | Randolph-Macon | L | 71 - 77 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Wash. & Lee | L | 47 - 69 |
| 2026-01-30 | vs | Randolph | W | 50 - 40 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Hollins | W | 66 - 57 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | East. Mennonite | W | 65 - 56 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Fowler | - | 18 | 31.9 | 12.8 | 5.7 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 13 | 0.6 | 3.6 | 38.9 | 34.1 | 80.0 | -0.91 | 52.0 | 49.5 |
| Paige Breuer | - | 18 | 29.8 | 10.8 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 9.9 | 3.7 | -30 | -1.4 | -7.6 | 39.3 | 40.0 | 92.6 | -1.0 | 51.3 | 47.8 |
| Alicea Farmer | - | 18 | 23.3 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 7.9 | 10.3 | 15 | 0.7 | 6.0 | 42.7 | 33.3 | 58.8 | 3.21 | 49.7 | 46.2 |
| Nadia Snesarev | - | 18 | 31.6 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 71 | 3.2 | 17.1 | 37.2 | 28.2 | 61.1 | 0.88 | 47.7 | 46.3 |
| Moriah Tate | - | 18 | 14.9 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 16 | 0.8 | 8.1 | 44.9 | 31.8 | 60.6 | -0.88 | 52.4 | 49.4 |
| Mariah Cain | - | 18 | 19.1 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 51 | 2.3 | 24.1 | 37.3 | 14.3 | 65.1 | 2.65 | 44.6 | 38.0 |
| Abigail Rice | - | 18 | 15.8 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 4.7 | 2.1 | -34 | -0.8 | -6.7 | 29.8 | 22.6 | 65.4 | -0.71 | 38.8 | 33.9 |
| Cecilia Robinson | - | 13 | 10.3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 4.8 | -7 | -0.5 | -3.9 | 52.4 | 0 | 50.0 | 0.65 | 53.1 | 52.4 |
| Ingrid Moraes | - | 15 | 9.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 26 | 1.4 | 61.5 | 45.7 | 0.0 | 80.0 | 1.02 | 52.9 | 45.7 |
| Caroline Donaldson | - | 18 | 8.2 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 31 | 1.5 | 34.7 | 30.2 | 12.5 | 72.2 | 0.2 | 37.8 | 31.1 |
| Laila Staples | - | 15 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 19 | 1.1 | 29.7 | 39.4 | 0 | 45.0 | -0.05 | 41.9 | 39.4 |
| Katie Lam | - | 4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.8 | - | - | - | 100.0 | 0 | 50.0 | - | 79.8 | 100.0 |
| Ava Skladanowski | - | 5 | 6.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | -11 | -1.1 | -9.3 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -0.78 | 25.5 | 20.0 |
| OliviaJane Cahoon | - | 4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | -0.2 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Avery Tanis | - | 8 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.0 | -0.1 | 3 | 0.3 | 61.5 | 12.5 | 14.3 | 0 | 0.18 | 18.8 | 18.8 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG