Roanoke
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1109 (#91) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1197 (#37) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1168 (#35) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +17.6 (#5) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +11.9 (#205) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.910 (#236) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.926 (#162) | AdjNet +21.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.915 (#170) | AdjNet +20.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.786 (#185) | AdjO 80.5 | AdjD 66.1 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.783 (#39) | AdjO 74.9 | AdjD 60.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.825 (#74) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.824 (#64) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1227 (#48) | RD 101 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-11 | vs | Christendom | W | 90 - 38 |
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Southern Va. | W | 86 - 56 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Marymount (VA) | W | 73 - 54 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Wesleyan (CT) | L | 79 - 84 |
| 2025-11-23 | vs | Salisbury | W | 79 - 63 |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Guilford | W | 98 - 79 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Randolph-Macon | L | 61 - 66 |
| 2025-12-19 | @ | Redlands | L | 60 - 79 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | Wilson | W | 104 - 69 |
| 2025-12-29 | vs | Husson | W | 91 - 62 |
| 2025-12-30 | vs | Wilkes | W | 81 - 54 |
| 2026-01-07 | @ | Shenandoah | W | 77 - 34 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Wash. & Lee | L | 57 - 58 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Hampden-Sydney | W | 62 - 47 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Va. Wesleyan | W | 73 - 64 |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | Lynchburg | W | 92 - 68 |
| 2026-01-23 | vs | Bridgewater (VA) | W | 74 - 57 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Randolph | W | 86 - 74 |
| 2026-01-30 | vs | Averett | W | 68 - 46 |
| 2026-02-04 | @ | Wash. & Lee | L | 56 - 64 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | East. Mennonite | W | 73 - 57 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wolinski | - | 1 | 35.0 | 23.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 16.0 | 11.0 | 14 | 0.8 | 4.8 | 37.5 | 42.9 | 88.9 | -1.0 | 57.6 | 46.9 |
| Jackson Bell | - | 19 | 28.8 | 14.3 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 11.9 | 9.9 | 160 | 7.0 | 36.4 | 45.1 | 34.4 | 83.3 | -1.56 | 55.6 | 52.4 |
| Marcus Morgan | - | 18 | 25.8 | 12.0 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 9.1 | 10.4 | 198 | 9.4 | 79.2 | 52.1 | 0.0 | 59.7 | 4.72 | 54.9 | 52.1 |
| Caleb Franze | - | 19 | 25.1 | 10.9 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 10.2 | 5.2 | 110 | 5.0 | 28.2 | 35.1 | 28.6 | 72.2 | 0.04 | 47.5 | 43.3 |
| Hunter Fleming | - | 1 | 20.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | -16 | -1.6 | -59.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | -1.89 | 112.6 | 112.5 |
| Gavin O'Malley | - | 20 | 23.1 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 5.6 | 10.9 | 164 | 7.1 | 48.8 | 60.7 | 0 | 54.5 | 1.66 | 61.0 | 60.7 |
| Ben Lyttle | - | 1 | 21.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | -45 | -2.6 | -22.7 | 57.1 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.44 | 57.1 | 57.1 |
| Derek Studer | - | 1 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | - | - | - | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0 | - | 150.0 | 150.0 |
| Porter Stanley | - | 18 | 13.7 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 89 | 4.2 | 39.1 | 56.6 | 50.0 | 44.4 | -0.32 | 60.9 | 62.5 |
| Tyler Barnes | - | 19 | 14.5 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 68 | 3.4 | 37.0 | 65.7 | 0.0 | 70.0 | 0.42 | 68.0 | 65.7 |
| Grant Hamilton | - | 15 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 25 | 1.4 | 19.6 | 43.6 | 46.3 | 54.5 | -1.43 | 61.0 | 60.9 |
| Patrick Clevenger | - | 20 | 24.0 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 127 | 5.5 | 32.0 | 34.6 | 28.0 | 80.0 | 0.49 | 47.3 | 43.6 |
| Fritz Hauser | - | 1 | 27.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | -43 | -2.4 | -16.2 | 25.0 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 1.23 | 37.6 | 37.5 |
| Zach Rosenthal | - | 19 | 10.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 103 | 5.2 | 62.9 | 34.4 | 37.3 | 78.6 | 3.81 | 52.7 | 49.2 |
| Ryan Truitt | - | 19 | 14.9 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 100 | 4.3 | 41.0 | 48.0 | 30.0 | 57.9 | 0.49 | 53.1 | 51.0 |
| Rylan Parkins | - | 9 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 16 | 2.0 | 52.5 | 61.9 | 0 | 50.0 | -0.82 | 61.7 | 61.9 |
| Oscar Edelman | - | 1 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | -4 | -0.2 | -1.6 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 37.5 | 37.5 |
| Yuri Manns | - | 3 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | -3 | -1.5 | -248.3 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.01 | 38.7 | 50.0 |
| Jack Adair | - | 9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 14 | 1.6 | 52.5 | 46.2 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -1.29 | 48.9 | 46.2 |
| Colin Fayed | - | 13 | 8.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 25 | 1.8 | 20.7 | 34.8 | 18.2 | 20.0 | -0.39 | 37.7 | 39.1 |
| Clayton Gaither | - | 2 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 34 | 6.8 | 370.9 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 0 | -0.04 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Greg Murray | - | 5 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | -9 | -1.8 | -103.3 | 28.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -1.4 | 33.6 | 28.6 |
| Ian Plankey | - | 1 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | -2 | -0.1 | -2.8 | 0 | 0 | 50.0 | -2.19 | 56.8 | 0 |
| Jake Chisholm | - | 4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | -0.2 | -1 | -0.2 | -27.0 | 20.0 | 25.0 | 0 | -0.6 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| Andrew Maddalon | - | 9 | 3.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 16 | 1.8 | 102.1 | 50.0 | 0 | 25.0 | -0.14 | 43.4 | 50.0 |
| Trey Williams | - | 6 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | -0.2 | -5 | -0.7 | -200.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.61 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Jaalan Watson | - | 1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | -4.0 | -19 | -1.0 | -15.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.32 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Charlie Moore | - | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17 | 1.5 | 34.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.45 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG