Rivier
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 822 (#463) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 732 (#567) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 781 (#702) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -24.9 (#380) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -29.2 (#668) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.425 (#482) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.049 (#525) | NetEff -20.1 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.172 (#502) | AdjNet -13.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.159 (#505) | AdjNet -14.1 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.307 (#498) | AdjO 61.8 | AdjD 70.7 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.142 (#690) | AdjO 49.4 | AdjD 69.2 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.064 (#683) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.068 (#687) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 663 (#550) | RD 113 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | @ | Suffolk | L | 64 - 75 |
| 2025-11-12 | @ | Framingham St. | L | 53 - 82 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Wheaton (MA) | L | 81 - 84 |
| 2025-11-18 | vs | Brandeis | L | 39 - 64 |
| 2025-11-20 | @ | Colby | L | 43 - 86 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Nichols | L | 45 - 65 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Plymouth St. | L | 56 - 68 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Westfield St. | L | 54 - 75 |
| 2025-12-30 | vs | Gordon | L | 57 - 64 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Dean | W | 81 - 56 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Mitchell | W | 80 - 74 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Lasell | L | 47 - 57 |
| 2026-01-20 | vs | Norwich | L | 60 - 73 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Regis (MA) | L | 53 - 74 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Colby-Sawyer | L | 41 - 58 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Saint Joseph (CT) | L | 59 - 80 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Albertus Magnus | L | 45 - 66 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianna Donato | - | 16 | 30.6 | 14.6 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 3.8 | 15.1 | 5.4 | -156 | -9.2 | -81.1 | 39.7 | 22.3 | 51.2 | 0.36 | 45.0 | 44.0 |
| Sydney Perry | - | 17 | 30.6 | 10.9 | 8.5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 9.4 | 10.5 | -118 | -6.9 | -52.2 | 47.8 | 16.7 | 61.5 | -2.87 | 50.9 | 48.1 |
| Juju Nealy | - | 17 | 34.4 | 10.7 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 3.4 | 12.6 | 2.7 | -125 | -7.4 | -46.4 | 30.2 | 22.3 | 67.6 | -0.87 | 39.3 | 36.5 |
| Madi Ricker | - | 17 | 25.7 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 9.9 | -0.8 | -162 | -9.5 | -141.5 | 26.0 | 14.7 | 70.4 | -0.94 | 32.6 | 29.3 |
| Erika Fantauzzi | - | 17 | 26.5 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 4.2 | -85 | -5.0 | -46.3 | 38.8 | 26.1 | 46.7 | -2.06 | 43.8 | 42.4 |
| Haley Phillips | - | 17 | 11.5 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | -67 | -3.9 | -90.7 | 31.8 | 40.0 | 72.4 | 0.23 | 44.9 | 34.1 |
| Mia Fantauzzi | - | 9 | 18.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | - | - | - | 25.0 | 30.0 | 73.3 | - | 42.5 | 31.2 |
| Emily Coleman | - | 17 | 20.6 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 4.4 | 1.8 | -93 | -5.5 | -46.8 | 27.0 | 13.3 | 33.3 | -1.0 | 28.9 | 28.4 |
| Hannah Smith | - | 14 | 12.8 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 3.1 | -33 | -2.1 | -55.5 | 33.3 | 20.0 | 100.0 | 0.3 | 38.4 | 34.7 |
| Lily Papatola | - | 3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 50.0 | - | 56.8 | 0 |
| Ava Kreie | - | 4 | 10.9 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.0 | -15 | -3.8 | -18.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | -1.71 | 10.5 | 0.0 |
| Cali Laliberte | - | 1 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Mariah Lorenzo | - | 1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG