🐻⬇️🏀

Rivier

Also known as: Rivier
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 822 (#463) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 732 (#567) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 781 (#702) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -24.9 (#380) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -29.2 (#668) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.425 (#482) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -20.1 More → 0.049 (#525) NetEff -20.1
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -13.6 More → 0.172 (#502) AdjNet -13.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -14.1 More → 0.159 (#505) AdjNet -14.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 61.8 | AdjD 70.7 More → 0.307 (#498) AdjO 61.8 | AdjD 70.7
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 49.4 | AdjD 69.2 More → 0.142 (#690) AdjO 49.4 | AdjD 69.2
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.064 (#683) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.068 (#687) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 113 | GP 21 More → 663 (#550) RD 113 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 @ Suffolk L 64 - 75
2025-11-12 @ Framingham St. L 53 - 82
2025-11-15 vs Wheaton (MA) L 81 - 84
2025-11-18 vs Brandeis L 39 - 64
2025-11-20 @ Colby L 43 - 86
2025-11-22 @ Nichols L 45 - 65
2025-11-25 vs Plymouth St. L 56 - 68
2025-12-03 vs Westfield St. L 54 - 75
2025-12-30 vs Gordon L 57 - 64
2026-01-10 @ Dean W 81 - 56
2026-01-14 vs Mitchell W 80 - 74
2026-01-17 vs Lasell L 47 - 57
2026-01-20 vs Norwich L 60 - 73
2026-01-24 @ Regis (MA) L 53 - 74
2026-01-28 @ Colby-Sawyer L 41 - 58
2026-01-31 vs Saint Joseph (CT) L 59 - 80
2026-02-07 @ Albertus Magnus L 45 - 66

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Gianna Donato - 16 30.6 14.6 5.2 1.6 2.0 0.9 3.8 15.1 5.4 -156 -9.2 -81.1 39.7 22.3 51.2 0.36 45.0 44.0
Sydney Perry - 17 30.6 10.9 8.5 0.9 1.3 0.7 2.5 9.4 10.5 -118 -6.9 -52.2 47.8 16.7 61.5 -2.87 50.9 48.1
Juju Nealy - 17 34.4 10.7 3.6 2.6 1.2 0.5 3.4 12.6 2.7 -125 -7.4 -46.4 30.2 22.3 67.6 -0.87 39.3 36.5
Madi Ricker - 17 25.7 6.9 4.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 3.6 9.9 -0.8 -162 -9.5 -141.5 26.0 14.7 70.4 -0.94 32.6 29.3
Erika Fantauzzi - 17 26.5 5.1 3.4 1.4 1.8 0.1 2.5 5.0 4.2 -85 -5.0 -46.3 38.8 26.1 46.7 -2.06 43.8 42.4
Haley Phillips - 17 11.5 3.0 2.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.3 2.6 2.3 -67 -3.9 -90.7 31.8 40.0 72.4 0.23 44.9 34.1
Mia Fantauzzi - 9 18.5 2.9 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.0 2.2 2.7 1.7 - - - 25.0 30.0 73.3 - 42.5 31.2
Emily Coleman - 17 20.6 2.6 4.3 0.6 0.2 0.4 1.9 4.4 1.8 -93 -5.5 -46.8 27.0 13.3 33.3 -1.0 28.9 28.4
Hannah Smith - 14 12.8 2.1 3.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.6 2.6 3.1 -33 -2.1 -55.5 33.3 20.0 100.0 0.3 38.4 34.7
Lily Papatola - 3 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 - - - 0 0 50.0 - 56.8 0
Ava Kreie - 4 10.9 0.2 1.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 -15 -3.8 -18.3 0.0 0.0 25.0 -1.71 10.5 0.0
Cali Laliberte - 1 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Mariah Lorenzo - 1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG