🐻⬇️🏀

Richmond

Season: 2026 2021
Also known as: Richmond
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1019 (#314) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1068 (#210) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 1008 (#385) HCA +56 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → +11.8 (#207) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.991 (#170) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +16.6 More → 0.871 (#193) AdjNet +16.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +16.2 More → 0.872 (#195) AdjNet +16.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 77.0 | AdjD 65.5 More → 0.739 (#204) AdjO 77.0 | AdjD 65.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 76.1 | AdjD 73.0 More → 0.570 (#261) AdjO 76.1 | AdjD 73.0
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.715 (#188) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.681 (#222) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 350 | GP 1 More → 1088 (#214) RD 350 | GP 1

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-05 vs Southern Va. W 84 - 56

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Jonathan Beagle - 1 17.2 12.0 6.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 5.0 15.0 -63 -3.1 -18.3 80.0 0 80.0 0.47 83.3 80.0
Aiden Argabright - 1 16.8 11.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 7.0 11.0 - - - 57.1 33.3 100.0 - 69.8 64.3
Collin Tanner - 1 22.6 11.0 6.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 12.0 10.0 - - - 41.7 25.0 0 - 45.8 45.8
Mikkel Tyne - 1 16.8 10.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 7.0 - - - 57.1 40.0 0 - 71.4 71.4
Jaylen Robinson - 1 18.8 9.0 4.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 9.0 97 5.4 43.6 50.0 0 60.0 1.46 54.9 50.0
Mike Walz - 1 16.5 9.0 7.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 13.0 - - - 75.0 50.0 100.0 - 92.2 87.5
Jaden Daughtry - 1 16.1 6.0 6.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 7.0 8.0 - - - 42.9 0.0 0 - 42.9 42.9
Will Johnston - 1 18.1 5.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 8.0 - - - 33.3 50.0 100.0 - 64.4 50.0
Bryson McGlothin - 1 3.1 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 - - - 33.3 33.3 50.0 - 51.5 50.0
Apostolos Roumoglou - 1 12.3 3.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 - - - 16.7 0.0 50.0 - 21.8 16.7
AJ Lopez - 1 12.4 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 -64 -3.6 -22.3 0.0 0.0 100.0 -0.51 34.7 0.0
David Thomas - 1 19.3 2.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 3.0 39 1.9 14.3 25.0 0.0 0 3.19 25.0 25.0
Will Harper III - 1 7.7 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 -2.0 -7 -0.5 -21.2 0.0 0.0 0 1.61 0.0 0.0
Kirby Mooney - 1 2.6 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG