Randolph-Macon
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1110 (#62) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1207 (#46) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1166 (#46) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +13.0 (#69) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +12.5 (#187) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.825 (#290) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.767 (#243) | NetEff +8.5 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.897 (#214) | AdjNet +18.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.896 (#216) | AdjNet +18.3 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.696 (#240) | AdjO 62.8 | AdjD 53.7 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.720 (#107) | AdjO 64.0 | AdjD 53.6 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.832 (#117) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.826 (#116) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1255 (#45) | RD 101 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | @ | Dickinson | W | 68 - 59 |
| 2025-11-10 | vs | Notre Dame (MD) | W | 63 - 38 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Emory | L | 59 - 68 |
| 2025-11-16 | vs | Bethany (WV) | L | 62 - 65 |
| 2025-11-21 | vs | Mary Washington | W | 60 - 48 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Gettysburg | W | 63 - 53 |
| 2025-12-02 | vs | East. Mennonite | W | 67 - 40 |
| 2025-12-15 | vs | Principia | W | 62 - 44 |
| 2025-12-16 | @ | Catholic | W | 68 - 57 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Randolph | W | 69 - 43 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Shenandoah | L | 42 - 67 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Wash. & Lee | L | 54 - 72 |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | Va. Wesleyan | L | 61 - 71 |
| 2026-01-23 | vs | Roanoke | W | 77 - 71 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | East. Mennonite | W | 56 - 41 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Lynchburg | W | 68 - 58 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Bridgewater (VA) | W | 65 - 50 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Averett | W | 66 - 54 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McKenzie Matheny | - | 18 | 27.5 | 13.7 | 10.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 11.5 | 14.5 | 70 | 3.0 | 17.9 | 49.8 | 0.0 | 61.2 | 4.95 | 52.2 | 49.8 |
| Erin Porter | - | 18 | 29.4 | 13.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 12.1 | 5.7 | 38 | 1.7 | 7.4 | 40.4 | 31.0 | 75.0 | 0.26 | 51.6 | 48.6 |
| Sam Smith | - | 18 | 34.0 | 11.8 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 2.6 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 57 | 2.4 | 10.9 | 33.5 | 36.0 | 63.4 | 2.91 | 45.3 | 41.1 |
| Riley White | - | 15 | 21.4 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 10 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 42.9 | 32.1 | 55.6 | 2.7 | 53.1 | 52.2 |
| Emily Olsen | - | 8 | 11.8 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 28 | 3.1 | 24.7 | 46.4 | 50.0 | 78.9 | 3.3 | 57.8 | 48.2 |
| Liz Wyrick | - | 11 | 15.5 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 19 | 1.6 | 7.6 | 58.1 | 0.0 | 46.2 | -1.65 | 57.5 | 58.1 |
| Emion Byers | - | 18 | 20.4 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 5.1 | 3.9 | -14 | -0.6 | -5.7 | 33.0 | 33.3 | 54.5 | -1.57 | 35.5 | 34.1 |
| Madison Langdon | - | 18 | 16.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 16 | 0.8 | 6.5 | 31.9 | 27.8 | 76.5 | 3.29 | 43.8 | 39.1 |
| Anna Wilcox | - | 18 | 18.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 33 | 1.6 | 10.6 | 18.0 | 14.3 | 81.8 | 2.71 | 27.3 | 22.1 |
| Morgan Miller | - | 4 | 14.3 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 58 | 3.4 | 34.5 | 30.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.71 | 28.8 | 30.8 |
| Rachael Anderson | - | 9 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 3 | 0.3 | 6.2 | 36.4 | 0 | 100.0 | -1.4 | 44.6 | 36.4 |
| Brielle Baughman | - | 15 | 9.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 14 | 0.8 | 7.5 | 18.5 | 13.3 | 100.0 | 3.81 | 25.1 | 22.2 |
| Lila Donnelly | - | 10 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.3 | -0.2 | -6 | -0.6 | -10.7 | 15.4 | 12.5 | 100.0 | -0.39 | 30.5 | 19.2 |
| Lilly Davis | - | 12 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | -24 | -1.5 | -22.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.11 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Brooke Lynn Miller | - | 7 | 3.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 5 | 0.8 | 15.7 | 50.0 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.29 | 34.7 | 50.0 |
| Alyssa Hughes | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 63 | 3.3 | 13.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.41 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG