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Principia

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2016 2015
Also known as: Principia
Program History

Model Outputs

2024-2025
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 942 (#345) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 923 (#341) -
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.4 More → -6.7 (#257) HCA +2.4
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.515 (#440) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -0.2 More → 0.491 (#242) NetEff -0.2
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -12.8 More → 0.186 (#494) AdjNet -12.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -13.4 More → 0.171 (#496) AdjNet -13.4
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 59.1 | AdjD 68.0 More → 0.308 (#497) AdjO 59.1 | AdjD 68.0

2025 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2024-11-08 vs Welch W 77 - 59
2024-11-09 @ Covenant W 72 - 67
2024-11-14 @ Rose-Hulman L 63 - 75
2024-11-16 @ Ozarks (AR) L 54 - 64
2024-11-26 @ Fontbonne W 77 - 47
2024-12-05 vs Spalding W 57 - 53
2024-12-07 @ Eureka W 63 - 61
2024-12-14 @ Lincoln (MO) W 58 - 46
2024-12-17 vs Harris-Stowe W 56 - 40
2024-12-29 vs Ohio Northern L 59 - 67
2024-12-30 @ Ohio Wesleyan L 42 - 61
2025-01-04 vs Fontbonne W 64 - 42
2025-01-09 @ MUW W 55 - 51
2025-01-11 @ Lyon W 75 - 69
2025-01-14 @ Greenville L 63 - 84
2025-01-18 vs Webster L 56 - 65
2025-01-21 vs Westminster (MO) L 44 - 81
2025-01-25 @ Blackburn W 77 - 40
2025-01-28 @ Spalding L 52 - 61
2025-02-01 vs Eureka L 67 - 84
2025-02-06 vs Lyon W 93 - 77
2025-02-08 vs MUW W 94 - 45
2025-02-11 vs Greenville W 66 - 54
2025-02-15 @ Webster L 62 - 73
2025-02-20 @ Westminster (MO) L 66 - 88
2025-02-22 vs Blackburn W 86 - 50
2025-02-25 vs Greenville W 71 - 67
2025-02-27 @ Westminster (MO) W 63 - 45
2025-03-01 @ Webster W 69 - 67
2025-03-07 @ Wis.-Whitewater L 53 - 75

2025 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Taylor Brown - 30 30.0 13.3 4.0 2.0 1.9 0.3 1.8 11.8 8.0 -46 -0.7 -1.0 38.0 27.5 78.1 -0.01 48.6 42.2
Ariana Williams - 30 23.1 9.4 6.6 1.4 2.0 1.2 2.4 9.5 8.7 42 1.4 1.5 32.4 19.1 69.3 1.4 41.3 34.0
Trinniti Matthews - 28 25.0 8.7 5.8 1.0 2.0 1.7 1.7 8.4 9.0 24 0.6 0.8 44.7 15.4 53.3 -0.19 46.7 45.1
Lamiya Terrell - 30 27.7 8.6 4.1 2.6 3.5 0.4 2.4 8.7 8.1 63 1.6 1.7 40.6 28.9 47.3 0.55 43.9 42.7
Hannah Myers - 30 24.3 7.9 4.9 1.0 1.5 0.4 1.4 8.1 6.2 41 1.5 1.3 34.2 28.0 58.1 0.32 45.1 43.4
Carolina Rojas - 29 22.2 6.3 3.0 1.3 1.0 0.1 1.8 7.2 2.8 -49 -1.7 -2.5 31.2 22.0 50.8 -0.45 38.9 36.5
Genesis Santiago - 29 15.3 5.4 2.5 1.4 0.8 0.1 1.8 7.2 1.2 1 0.0 0.0 29.2 21.7 40.9 -0.05 34.6 33.5
Elyssa White - 29 8.9 2.2 2.3 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.8 3.0 1.7 21 0.6 1.7 26.1 21.4 51.9 -0.45 31.5 27.8
Erinn Porter - 30 6.4 1.9 1.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.9 1.7 1.3 24 0.7 2.0 40.4 33.3 70.6 0.09 47.1 42.3
Jasmine Burks - 17 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.5 -0.3 - - - 24.0 15.4 100.0 - 33.6 28.0
Kylie Huber - 29 3.4 0.6 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 -28 -0.8 -4.0 31.2 0 63.6 -0.56 40.8 31.2
Briana Baldridge - 29 2.8 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 14 0.5 2.9 26.7 0.0 66.7 -0.49 36.9 26.7
Natalea Clark - 12 2.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 -16 -0.5 -1.1 14.3 50.0 100.0 0.1 31.7 21.4
Rhyan Muldrew - 19 1.7 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 -1 -0.1 -0.6 18.2 0.0 16.7 -0.08 18.3 18.2
Carma Bryant - 20 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.6 -0.3 -92 -5.4 -14.8 27.3 0.0 0.0 -1.06 25.3 27.3
Dana Galinis - 27 1.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 -25 -1.7 -13.9 50.0 0 0 -0.29 50.0 50.0
Naomi Barabie - 27 1.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 -0.0 -7 -0.5 -6.1 12.5 0 0 -0.23 12.5 12.5
Lydia Stalnaker - 20 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -11 -1.6 -5.3 33.3 33.3 0 -0.33 50.0 50.0
Alexis Matthews - 21 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.2 -21 -1.0 -1.2 16.7 0.0 0 0.24 16.7 16.7
Isabella Pierce - 10 2.6 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.6 -0.2 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Samantha Goodrich - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Nylah Young - 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 56 1.9 2.9 0 0 0 0.09 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG