Principia
Model Outputs
2024-2025
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 942 (#345) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 923 (#341) | - |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -6.7 (#257) | HCA +2.4 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.515 (#440) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.491 (#242) | NetEff -0.2 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.186 (#494) | AdjNet -12.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.171 (#496) | AdjNet -13.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.308 (#497) | AdjO 59.1 | AdjD 68.0 |
2025 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-08 | vs | Welch | - | Incomplete score |
| 2024-11-09 | @ | Covenant | - | Incomplete score |
| 2024-11-14 | @ | Rose-Hulman | - | Incomplete score |
| 2024-11-16 | @ | Ozarks (AR) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2024-11-26 | @ | Fontbonne | - | Incomplete score |
| 2024-12-05 | vs | Spalding | W | 57 - 53 |
| 2024-12-07 | @ | Eureka | - | Incomplete score |
| 2024-12-14 | @ | Lincoln (MO) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2024-12-17 | vs | Harris-Stowe | - | Incomplete score |
| 2024-12-29 | vs | Ohio Northern | - | Incomplete score |
| 2024-12-30 | @ | Ohio Wesleyan | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-01-04 | vs | Fontbonne | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-01-09 | @ | MUW | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-01-11 | @ | Lyon | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-01-14 | @ | Greenville | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-01-18 | vs | Webster | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-01-21 | vs | Westminster (MO) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-01-25 | @ | Blackburn | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-01-28 | @ | Spalding | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-02-01 | vs | Eureka | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-02-06 | vs | Lyon | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-02-08 | vs | MUW | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-02-11 | vs | Greenville | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-02-15 | @ | Webster | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-02-20 | @ | Westminster (MO) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-02-22 | vs | Blackburn | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-02-25 | vs | Greenville | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-02-27 | @ | Westminster (MO) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-03-01 | @ | Webster | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-03-07 | @ | Wis.-Whitewater | - | Incomplete score |
2025 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Brown | - | 29 | 30.0 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 11.7 | 7.8 | -46 | -0.7 | -1.0 | 37.6 | 27.5 | 77.5 | -0.01 | 48.0 | 41.8 |
| Ariana Williams | - | 29 | 23.0 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 42 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 33.0 | 20.9 | 68.4 | 1.4 | 41.5 | 34.6 |
| Trinniti Matthews | - | 27 | 25.0 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 24 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 45.6 | 16.7 | 53.3 | -0.19 | 47.6 | 46.1 |
| Lamiya Terrell | - | 29 | 27.4 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 0.4 | 2.4 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 63 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 40.9 | 30.6 | 47.2 | 0.55 | 44.2 | 43.1 |
| Hannah Myers | - | 29 | 23.9 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 41 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 33.8 | 27.6 | 58.5 | 0.32 | 44.5 | 42.8 |
| Carolina Rojas | - | 29 | 22.2 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 7.2 | 2.8 | -49 | -1.7 | -2.5 | 31.2 | 22.0 | 50.8 | -0.45 | 38.9 | 36.5 |
| Genesis Santiago | - | 29 | 15.3 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 7.2 | 1.2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 29.2 | 21.7 | 40.9 | -0.05 | 34.6 | 33.5 |
| Elyssa White | - | 28 | 8.8 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 21 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 25.9 | 25.0 | 50.0 | -0.45 | 31.4 | 27.8 |
| Erinn Porter | - | 29 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 24 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 41.2 | 33.3 | 70.6 | 0.09 | 47.9 | 43.1 |
| Jasmine Burks | - | 16 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.6 | -0.3 | - | - | - | 24.0 | 15.4 | 100.0 | - | 33.6 | 28.0 |
| Kylie Huber | - | 28 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.9 | -28 | -0.8 | -4.0 | 31.2 | 0 | 63.6 | -0.56 | 40.8 | 31.2 |
| Briana Baldridge | - | 28 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 14 | 0.5 | 2.9 | 26.7 | 0.0 | 66.7 | -0.49 | 36.9 | 26.7 |
| Natalea Clark | - | 12 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | -16 | -0.5 | -1.1 | 14.3 | 50.0 | 100.0 | 0.1 | 31.7 | 21.4 |
| Rhyan Muldrew | - | 18 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | -1 | -0.1 | -0.6 | 18.2 | 0.0 | 16.7 | -0.08 | 18.3 | 18.2 |
| Carma Bryant | - | 19 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.6 | -0.3 | -92 | -5.4 | -14.8 | 27.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.06 | 25.3 | 27.3 |
| Dana Galinis | - | 26 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | -25 | -1.7 | -13.9 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.29 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Lydia Stalnaker | - | 19 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -11 | -1.6 | -5.3 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 0 | -0.33 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Naomi Barabie | - | 26 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | -0.0 | -7 | -0.5 | -6.1 | 12.5 | 0 | 0 | -0.23 | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| Alexis Matthews | - | 20 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | -0.2 | -21 | -1.0 | -1.2 | 16.7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 16.7 | 16.7 |
| Isabella Pierce | - | 10 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.6 | -0.2 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Samantha Goodrich | - | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Nylah Young | - | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 56 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG