Principia
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 942 (#345) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 946 (#404) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1107 (#89) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -1.0 (#204) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -3.0 (#408) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.515 (#440) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.637 (#307) | NetEff +4.1 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.186 (#494) | AdjNet -12.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.171 (#496) | AdjNet -13.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.308 (#497) | AdjO 59.1 | AdjD 68.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.560 (#287) | AdjO 67.5 | AdjD 64.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.477 (#398) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.501 (#380) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1050 (#255) | RD 101 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | vs | Illinois Col. | W | 94 - 90 |
| 2025-11-08 | vs | Illinois Tech | W | 78 - 47 |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | Earlham | W | 90 - 62 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Anderson (IN) | L | 65 - 86 |
| 2025-11-23 | @ | Wis.-Stevens Point | L | 42 - 73 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Wis.-Whitewater | L | 49 - 81 |
| 2025-12-02 | @ | Westminster (MO) | L | 63 - 66 |
| 2025-12-15 | @ | Randolph-Macon | L | 44 - 62 |
| 2025-12-16 | @ | Roanoke | L | 76 - 79 |
| 2025-12-30 | @ | Coe | L | 54 - 81 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Webster | L | 50 - 55 |
| 2026-01-15 | @ | MUW | W | 76 - 63 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Lyon | W | 113 - 77 |
| 2026-01-20 | vs | Eureka | W | 91 - 52 |
| 2026-01-23 | vs | Spalding | W | 69 - 67 |
| 2026-01-29 | vs | Westminster (MO) | W | 86 - 57 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Blackburn | W | 89 - 72 |
| 2026-02-03 | vs | Greenville | W | 69 - 55 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Webster | W | 59 - 55 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trinniti Matthews | - | 19 | 31.6 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 12.4 | 11.3 | 90 | 4.1 | 20.2 | 43.2 | 13.6 | 72.3 | 0.93 | 48.0 | 43.9 |
| Taylor Brown | - | 19 | 29.9 | 11.5 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 12.0 | 4.9 | -56 | -9.3 | -63.6 | 33.3 | 28.9 | 82.4 | -6.5 | 43.5 | 38.6 |
| Hannah Myers | - | 19 | 33.8 | 10.8 | 6.6 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 141 | 6.7 | 27.9 | 33.2 | 27.9 | 72.4 | 2.53 | 45.4 | 43.2 |
| Ariana Williams | - | 18 | 25.1 | 10.7 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 10.8 | 10.9 | 59 | 3.0 | 14.6 | 36.4 | 16.1 | 66.7 | 1.91 | 42.8 | 37.7 |
| Lamiya Terrell | - | 19 | 33.5 | 10.2 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 7.3 | 13.1 | 159 | 7.6 | 32.4 | 56.1 | 23.5 | 56.7 | 3.11 | 58.6 | 57.6 |
| Genesis Santiago | - | 18 | 16.9 | 8.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 9.2 | 1.3 | 37 | 1.9 | 14.9 | 31.3 | 24.6 | 54.9 | -1.91 | 38.7 | 35.5 |
| Elyssa White | - | 19 | 13.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 77 | 3.7 | 47.2 | 32.9 | 10.0 | 57.1 | 2.24 | 37.2 | 33.6 |
| Erinn Porter | - | 19 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 15 | 0.8 | 19.9 | 40.0 | 41.7 | 100.0 | -1.47 | 48.7 | 44.5 |
| Adriyanna Phillips | - | 1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 | -5 | -5.0 | -66.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -1.32 | 34.7 | 0.0 |
| Alexis Matthews | - | 4 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.2 | -0.5 | -13 | -1.9 | -143.1 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 0 | -0.42 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| Kylie Huber | - | 15 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | -3 | -0.2 | -4.9 | 57.1 | 0 | 33.3 | -1.79 | 51.9 | 57.1 |
| Nylah Young | - | 7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.4 | -0.7 | 6 | 0.8 | 43.6 | 20.0 | 14.3 | 0.0 | -0.49 | 23.0 | 25.0 |
| Briana Baldridge | - | 16 | 3.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | -0.2 | -44 | -2.6 | -82.1 | 12.5 | 0 | 50.0 | -3.05 | 16.9 | 12.5 |
| Gabriela Carmona Gomez | - | 9 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.8 | -0.1 | -6 | -0.6 | -35.0 | 28.6 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.08 | 28.6 | 28.6 |
| Natalea Clark | - | 4 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | -12 | -0.7 | -9.2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 2.11 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG