Principia
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 766 (#630) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 751 (#618) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 834 (#735) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -33.5 (#419) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -32.7 (#767) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.078 (#748) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.016 (#761) | AdjNet -35.3 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.015 (#762) | AdjNet -35.9 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.080 (#760) | AdjO 59.4 | AdjD 86.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.101 (#777) | AdjO 61.3 | AdjD 85.3 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.044 (#777) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.053 (#775) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 711 (#620) | RD 103 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | @ | Illinois Col. | L | 36 - 88 |
| 2025-11-08 | vs | Benedictine (IL) | L | 68 - 74 |
| 2025-11-11 | vs | Harris-Stowe | W | 96 - 84 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Rhodes | L | 42 - 109 |
| 2025-11-19 | @ | Williams Baptist | L | 69 - 105 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Grinnell | L | 76 - 141 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Wartburg | L | 65 - 96 |
| 2025-12-02 | @ | Westminster (MO) | L | 49 - 85 |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Blackburn | L | 59 - 83 |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | Maranatha Baptist | W | 78 - 76 |
| 2025-12-16 | vs | Williams Baptist | L | 62 - 86 |
| 2025-12-28 | @ | Saint Louis | L | 33 - 114 |
| 2026-01-06 | @ | Greenville | L | 94 - 105 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Webster | L | 72 - 96 |
| 2026-01-15 | @ | MUW | L | 56 - 90 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Lyon | L | 58 - 74 |
| 2026-01-20 | vs | Eureka | W | 73 - 55 |
| 2026-01-23 | vs | Spalding | L | 61 - 76 |
| 2026-01-29 | vs | Westminster (MO) | W | 80 - 75 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Blackburn | L | 69 - 90 |
| 2026-02-03 | vs | Greenville | L | 109 - 110 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Webster | L | 67 - 87 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Gohring | - | 1 | 36.4 | 25.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 17.0 | 13.0 | 27 | 1.4 | 7.6 | 52.9 | 33.3 | 100.0 | -0.01 | 63.6 | 55.9 |
| Nolan Simon | - | 19 | 35.8 | 21.9 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 0.1 | 5.1 | 16.5 | 11.1 | -194 | -9.7 | -49.2 | 45.2 | 36.4 | 82.5 | -2.68 | 55.7 | 48.4 |
| Elijah Goad | - | 2 | 24.4 | 15.5 | 6.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 9 | 0.5 | 4.9 | 42.3 | 33.3 | 100.0 | -0.81 | 57.7 | 55.8 |
| Tahj Comeaux | - | 2 | 16.1 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 9.5 | 13.5 | 9 | 0.5 | 15.7 | 57.9 | 20.0 | 60.0 | 0.65 | 61.3 | 60.5 |
| Tim Lofton | - | 2 | 19.0 | 13.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 12.0 | 13.0 | -29 | -1.4 | -17.9 | 54.2 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.92 | 54.2 | 54.2 |
| Eaton Smith | - | 17 | 30.0 | 11.9 | 6.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 12.4 | 6.2 | -159 | -17.7 | -43.3 | 37.0 | 15.0 | 63.1 | 0.11 | 42.4 | 38.4 |
| Joseph Schreiber-Rivera | - | 2 | 20.7 | 11.5 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 11.0 | -1 | -0.1 | -1.0 | 62.5 | 16.7 | 50.0 | -0.53 | 64.8 | 65.6 |
| Gavin Hendrix | - | 1 | 25.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 11.0 | -46 | -2.9 | -22.5 | 50.0 | 0 | 75.0 | -1.63 | 56.4 | 50.0 |
| Elliot Mobley | - | 2 | 21.8 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 19 | 1.0 | 11.0 | 34.8 | 0 | 66.7 | -0.0 | 39.0 | 34.8 |
| Kolton Garner | - | 1 | 29.8 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | -20 | -1.0 | -7.2 | 50.0 | 40.0 | 0 | -1.15 | 62.5 | 62.5 |
| Brandon Tully | - | 2 | 16.2 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 11.0 | 0.0 | -17 | -0.8 | -25.5 | 27.3 | 27.3 | 0 | -1.75 | 40.9 | 40.9 |
| Jamile Johnson | - | 1 | 31.4 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 10.0 | -54 | -2.7 | -18.7 | 37.5 | 0 | 50.0 | 0.12 | 41.0 | 37.5 |
| Jaylen Williams | - | 2 | 14.8 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 10.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.1 | 19.7 | 28.6 | 0.0 | 75.0 | 0.1 | 33.0 | 28.6 |
| Jordan Williams | - | 11 | 24.2 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 32 | 2.3 | 47.9 | 42.0 | 8.3 | 46.2 | -2.75 | 43.8 | 42.6 |
| Caleb Johnson | - | 2 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 5.5 | -46 | -1.7 | -85.6 | 66.7 | 66.7 | 0 | -1.2 | 77.8 | 77.8 |
| Sean LeRose | - | 1 | 19.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | -37 | -2.1 | -16.0 | 60.0 | 50.0 | 0.0 | -0.41 | 64.3 | 70.0 |
| Demetrius Torrence | - | 17 | 30.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 6.6 | 5.0 | - | - | - | 38.4 | 29.8 | 60.0 | - | 47.2 | 46.0 |
| Sheldon Grant II | - | 2 | 16.7 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 4.5 | -47 | -2.4 | -84.2 | 28.6 | 0.0 | 42.9 | -1.73 | 32.2 | 28.6 |
| Dylan Rhodes | - | 2 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | -25 | -1.6 | -86.5 | 50.0 | 40.0 | 100.0 | 0.14 | 72.7 | 66.7 |
| Isaac Busch | - | 1 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 11.0 | 5 | 0.5 | 7.4 | 66.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.49 | 72.7 | 83.3 |
| DeMontrel Jones | - | 19 | 17.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 5.2 | 0.8 | 11 | 2.8 | 6.3 | 32.7 | 31.2 | 0 | -0.21 | 44.9 | 44.9 |
| Ivan Vashchenko | - | 6 | 15.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 4.7 | 0.2 | - | - | - | 28.6 | 0.0 | 61.5 | - | 35.6 | 28.6 |
| Kobe Jones | - | 1 | 20.4 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | -17 | -4.2 | -9.1 | 66.7 | 0 | 0 | -0.16 | 66.7 | 66.7 |
| Abe Pogue | - | 16 | 24.4 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 2.4 | 5.5 | 0.9 | -156 | -10.4 | -151.6 | 27.3 | 16.1 | 31.2 | -3.12 | 30.5 | 30.1 |
| Caleb White | - | 19 | 17.9 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | -95 | -5.0 | -59.5 | 30.7 | 33.3 | 75.0 | -0.69 | 43.6 | 42.7 |
| Jackson Gurgel | - | 2 | 18.8 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 | -47 | -2.2 | -58.5 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 0 | -1.56 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Carlitos Sanchez | - | 1 | 10.9 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | -4.0 | 10 | 0.6 | 6.2 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 0 | 0.15 | 37.5 | 37.5 |
| Roman Philips | - | 1 | 8.6 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -44 | -2.6 | -31.3 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.86 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Newton Acevedo | - | 1 | 18.6 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -38 | -2.0 | -46.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.87 | 20.5 | 25.0 |
| Isaiah Goad | - | 2 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0 | 50.0 | - | 52.1 | 50.0 |
| Bobby Alford | - | 18 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 0.2 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 29.4 | 37.5 | - | 42.6 | 42.6 |
| Ashton Matthews | - | 18 | 8.9 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | -88 | -5.5 | -97.9 | 23.3 | 12.5 | 50.0 | -1.89 | 25.9 | 25.0 |
| Taiemm Comeaux | - | 1 | 9.1 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | -25 | -1.6 | -49.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Bryon Gold | - | 1 | 3.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -2.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG