Post
Model Outputs
2016-2017
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 978 (#178) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 926 (#223) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 983 (#174) | HCA +68 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -0.8 (#250) | HCA +2.5 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -1.2 (#241) | HCA +2.8 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.386 (#221) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.379 (#261) | AdjNet -4.3 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.379 (#263) | AdjNet -4.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.448 (#251) | AdjO 67.8 | AdjD 70.1 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.463 (#216) | AdjO 69.7 | AdjD 71.4 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.440 (#233) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.443 (#227) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 973 (#184) | RD 153 | GP 25 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | Legacy estimate | Earlier model estimate; no qualified current forecast. |
2016-2017 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-11-11 | @ | Merrimack | L | 61 - 80 |
| 2016-11-12 | @ | Bentley | L | 56 - 84 |
| 2016-11-16 | vs | Dominican (NY) | L | 62 - 64 |
| 2016-11-19 | @ | Virginia Union | L | 52 - 65 |
| 2016-11-20 | vs | Elizabeth City St. | W | 68 - 59 |
| 2016-11-22 | @ | Bloomfield | W | 91 - 86 |
| 2016-11-27 | @ | Pace | L | 50 - 52 |
| 2016-11-30 | vs | Felician | L | 65 - 68 |
| 2016-12-03 | @ | Alliance | W | 70 - 65 |
| 2016-12-05 | vs | Caldwell | W | 87 - 66 |
| 2016-12-08 | @ | New Haven | L | 52 - 64 |
| 2016-12-18 | vs | Concordia (NY) | W | 87 - 82 |
| 2016-12-30 | vs | Saint Anselm | L | 55 - 91 |
| 2017-01-04 | @ | Chestnut Hill | W | 81 - 56 |
| 2017-01-07 | vs | Georgian Court | W | 75 - 51 |
| 2017-01-10 | @ | Jefferson | L | 54 - 64 |
| 2017-01-14 | vs | USciences | L | 69 - 71 |
| 2017-01-16 | @ | Caldwell | L | 62 - 70 |
| 2017-01-24 | vs | Alliance | W | 77 - 74 |
| 2017-01-28 | vs | Holy Family | W | 77 - 63 |
| 2017-02-01 | @ | Felician | L | 67 - 79 |
| 2017-02-04 | @ | Goldey-Beacom | L | 63 - 85 |
| 2017-02-07 | vs | Bloomfield | L | 65 - 76 |
| 2017-02-11 | vs | Wilmington (DE) | W | 78 - 72 |
| 2017-02-15 | @ | Dominican (NY) | W | 73 - 65 |
| 2017-02-18 | @ | Concordia (NY) | L | 71 - 72 |
| 2017-02-25 | @ | Jefferson | L | 63 - 72 |
2016-2017 Roster
No roster data available for this season.