🐻⬇️🏀

Paul Smiths

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2020 2019
Also known as: Paul Smiths
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 957 (#452) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 910 (#479) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 982 (#549) HCA +56 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -29.8 (#755) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.041 (#767) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -45.9 More → 0.005 (#785) AdjNet -45.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -46.0 More → 0.005 (#784) AdjNet -46.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 59.6 | AdjD 95.2 More → 0.038 (#787) AdjO 59.6 | AdjD 95.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 71.1 | AdjD 75.0 More → 0.414 (#561) AdjO 71.1 | AdjD 75.0
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.185 (#675) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.221 (#655) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 350 | GP 1 More → 908 (#464) RD 350 | GP 1

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-15 vs New England Col. L 58 - 67

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Josh Robie - 1 22.0 14.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 4.0 38 2.9 15.0 33.3 25.0 50.0 1.07 44.1 43.3
Jasen Stovall - 1 40.0 13.0 5.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 12.0 6.0 41 4.6 51.0 33.3 20.0 100.0 -2.09 47.2 37.5
Ryan Cuvier - 1 32.0 10.0 7.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 3.0 8.0 10.0 -69 -6.9 -72.3 50.0 0 100.0 -0.62 56.3 50.0
Mike Strazzeri - 1 37.0 10.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 8.0 4.0 -33 -3.3 -23.5 37.5 40.0 66.7 -0.85 53.6 50.0
Aiden MacLeod - 1 19.0 8.0 6.0 1.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 11.0 -21 -2.3 -7.6 66.7 0 0.0 -4.16 58.1 66.7
Luke Montejo - 1 16.0 7.0 11.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 13.0 27 2.1 12.4 60.0 50.0 0 0.03 70.0 70.0
Kenray Emadamerho - 1 12.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 -3.0 -11 -0.8 -4.8 25.0 0.0 0 -0.76 25.0 25.0
Michael Hills - 1 9.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 28 2.5 28.0 33.3 0.0 0 -3.37 33.3 33.3
Jayden Welch - 1 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 4 0.4 7.7 0.0 0 50.0 1.45 17.4 0.0
Kyle Dzarnowski - 1 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 26 3.2 105.6 0.0 0 0 -0.01 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG