Pacific Union
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More β | 940 (#338) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More β | 760 (#530) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More β | 836 (#580) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More β | -22.5 (#542) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More β | 0.004 (#691) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More β | 0.010 (#738) | AdjNet -39.4 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More β | 0.010 (#738) | AdjNet -38.8 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More β | 0.067 (#732) | AdjO 61.9 | AdjD 90.8 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More β | 0.166 (#590) | AdjO 67.4 | AdjD 85.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More β | 0.096 (#583) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More β | 0.106 (#583) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More β | 660 (#502) | RD 211 | GP 11 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-05 | @ | Alas. Fairbanks | L | 59 - 92 |
| 2025-11-06 | @ | Alas. Fairbanks | L | 70 - 110 |
| 2025-11-18 | @ | UC Merced | L | 50 - 89 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | UAH | L | 64 - 117 |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | Dominican (CA) | L | 77 - 104 |
| 2025-12-09 | @ | Shorter | L | 84 - 98 |
| 2025-12-16 | @ | Saint Martin's | L | 66 - 108 |
| 2025-12-18 | @ | Saint Martin's | L | 65 - 87 |
| 2025-12-31 | @ | Montevallo | L | 61 - 91 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jett Birdsall | - | 1 | 18.1 | 19.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | - | - | - | 70.0 | 50.0 | 100.0 | - | 87.3 | 85.0 |
| Kenton Steele | - | 3 | 32.3 | 18.0 | 7.0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 14.3 | 13.0 | - | - | - | 46.5 | 40.0 | 80.0 | - | 57.0 | 53.5 |
| Daniel Benjamin | - | 4 | 27.9 | 16.2 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 13.8 | 3.8 | -48 | -2.0 | -8.3 | 38.2 | 34.5 | 72.2 | -1.0 | 51.7 | 47.3 |
| Jevon Blackmore | - | 2 | 18.0 | 12.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 9.0 | 3.5 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 44.4 | 50.0 | - | 60.6 | 61.1 |
| Brody Baumgartner | - | 1 | 25.4 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | - | - | - | 55.6 | 0 | 50.0 | - | 55.7 | 55.6 |
| Dom Perasso | - | 1 | 24.7 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 14.0 | 4.0 | - | - | - | 28.6 | 0.0 | 75.0 | - | 34.9 | 28.6 |
| Jeremiah Sibley | - | 1 | 16.8 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | - | - | - | 57.1 | 60.0 | 0 | - | 78.6 | 78.6 |
| Grant Williams | - | 2 | 26.9 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 8.5 | 6.5 | -27 | -1.3 | -6.5 | 41.2 | 50.0 | 0 | 2.7 | 55.9 | 55.9 |
| Max Vacco | - | 1 | 18.6 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | - | - | - | 57.1 | 0.0 | 33.3 | - | 54.1 | 57.1 |
| Henry Smith | - | 1 | 25.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | - | - | - | 30.0 | 30.0 | 0 | - | 45.0 | 45.0 |
| Antwon Ferrell | - | 2 | 22.4 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 0.5 | - | - | - | 30.0 | 40.0 | 57.1 | - | 39.0 | 35.0 |
| Mike Evans | - | 3 | 23.5 | 8.7 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 8.7 | 1.3 | -55 | -4.2 | -19.6 | 34.6 | 40.0 | 100.0 | 1.12 | 48.4 | 46.2 |
| Ben Tellez | - | 1 | 21.9 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 40.0 | 0 | - | 66.7 | 66.7 |
| Kourtland Armstrong | - | 4 | 20.1 | 7.8 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 5.2 | 4.2 | - | - | - | 38.1 | 55.6 | 90.9 | - | 60.0 | 50.0 |
| Lance Rodriguez | - | 4 | 18.2 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 5.2 | - | - | - | 41.7 | 60.0 | 100.0 | - | 58.2 | 54.2 |
| Lucas Gray | - | 1 | 20.2 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 13.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0.0 | 60.0 | - | 56.5 | 50.0 |
| Brandon Kincaid | - | 1 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | - | - | - | 66.7 | 0 | 60.0 | - | 67.3 | 66.7 |
| Anthony Hrboka | - | 1 | 22.5 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Charlie Kapranos | - | 1 | 26.5 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Cam Rice | - | 1 | 15.5 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | - | 43.6 | 33.3 |
| Vince Graves | - | 3 | 22.8 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 5.3 | - | - | - | 58.3 | 20.0 | 100.0 | - | 66.0 | 62.5 |
| Caleb Berry | - | 1 | 11.7 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 100.0 | 100.0 | - | 64.4 | 50.0 |
| Mack Hepper | - | 1 | 25.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 50.0 | 0 | - | 62.5 | 62.5 |
| Aaron Anene | - | 2 | 23.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 6.5 | 1.0 | -17 | -2.4 | -31.7 | 23.1 | 0.0 | 66.7 | 2.25 | 32.0 | 23.1 |
| Kyle Durham | - | 2 | 17.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 3.0 | - | - | - | 22.2 | 20.0 | 80.0 | - | 40.2 | 27.8 |
| Lorenzo Lentini | - | 3 | 17.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.7 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 25.0 | 83.3 | - | 55.8 | 44.4 |
| Ryder Mackay | - | 1 | 11.6 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 0 | 0 | - | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Camden Edmonds | - | 3 | 16.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 14 | 0.8 | 6.7 | 40.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.76 | 36.8 | 40.0 |
| Jerald Mitchell | - | 2 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.5 | -59 | -1.6 | -17.0 | 50.0 | 100.0 | 33.3 | 1.28 | 52.7 | 62.5 |
| Johnny Huang | - | 4 | 23.7 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 5.8 | 2.0 | - | - | - | 26.1 | 0 | 50.0 | - | 28.3 | 26.1 |
| Nikolas Burns | - | 2 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | - | - | - | 60.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 60.0 | 60.0 |
| Jacob Crockett | - | 3 | 15.2 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 0.3 | - | - | - | 30.0 | 28.6 | 0 | - | 40.0 | 40.0 |
| Abram Bennett | - | 2 | 12.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0 | 50.0 | - | 51.2 | 50.0 |
| Colby Beck-Watts | - | 1 | 7.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Romyn Johnson | - | 1 | 8.6 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 26 | 1.1 | 5.7 | 25.0 | 0 | 0 | -2.46 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Julian Brown | - | 1 | 13.3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 100.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1.11 | 53.2 | 100.0 |
| Zach Zuckerman | - | 1 | 8.1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Ricardo Luis Ortiz | - | 1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - | - | - | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Justice Hayes | - | 3 | 14.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.3 | -1.7 | -22 | -1.8 | -31.8 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 0 | -0.13 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Connor Virnig | - | 4 | 9.3 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | - | - | - | 25.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Adrian Rodriguez | - | 2 | 12.2 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 0.3 | 6.1 | 14.3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.32 | 14.3 | 14.3 |
| D'montay Warner | - | 3 | 4.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | -0.7 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | - | 20.5 | 0.0 |
| Ian Coates-White | - | 1 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Joel Meske | - | 1 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| JβArius Nealy | - | 1 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Silva | - | 1 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Ivan Suslov | - | 1 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Shuga Tsurumi | - | 1 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Shawn Tunson | - | 1 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Nate Willis | - | 1 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Shaun Burton | - | 1 | 11.6 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Smith | - | 1 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 98 | 4.9 | 25.3 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 4.05 | 0.0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG