Model Outputs
2018-2019
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 986 (#150) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 999 (#149) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 980 (#159) | HCA +53 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +4.8 (#143) | HCA +2.5 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +6.4 (#120) | HCA +2.4 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.509 (#139) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.694 (#124) | AdjNet +7.1 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.698 (#124) | AdjNet +7.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.601 (#127) | AdjO 65.0 | AdjD 60.5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.542 (#124) | AdjO 65.3 | AdjD 63.4 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.593 (#131) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.581 (#131) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 998 (#140) | RD 160 | GP 21 |
2019 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-11-10 | @ | LIU Post | L | 45 - 53 |
| 2018-11-11 | vs | New York Tech | L | 56 - 72 |
| 2018-11-14 | @ | Adelphi | L | 52 - 57 |
| 2018-11-17 | vs | Concordia (NY) | W | 79 - 45 |
| 2018-11-20 | vs | Saint Rose | W | 60 - 57 |
| 2018-11-25 | vs | Post | L | 67 - 71 |
| 2018-11-28 | vs | American Int'l | W | 76 - 70 |
| 2018-12-01 | @ | Le Moyne | - | Preview |
| 2018-12-04 | @ | New Haven | - | Preview |
| 2018-12-08 | vs | Southern Conn. St. | L | 57 - 62 |
| 2018-12-11 | @ | Alliance | W | 61 - 55 |
| 2018-12-19 | vs | Bridgeport | L | 48 - 51 |
| 2018-12-30 | @ | St. Thomas Aquinas | L | 61 - 63 |
| 2019-01-04 | vs | Molloy | W | 58 - 49 |
| 2019-01-09 | vs | Southern N.H. | W | 90 - 79 |
| 2019-01-12 | @ | Merrimack | - | Preview |
| 2019-01-16 | @ | Franklin Pierce | W | 72 - 56 |
| 2019-01-19 | vs | Assumption | W | 59 - 45 |
| 2019-01-23 | @ | Saint Anselm | L | 46 - 72 |
| 2019-01-26 | vs | Saint Michael's | L | 55 - 61 |
| 2019-01-29 | vs | Stonehill | L | 59 - 64 |
| 2019-02-02 | @ | Bentley | - | Preview |
| 2019-02-06 | @ | American Int'l | L | 52 - 64 |
| 2019-02-13 | vs | New Haven | W | 68 - 61 |
| 2019-02-16 | vs | Adelphi | L | 72 - 78 |
| 2019-02-20 | vs | Le Moyne | L | 60 - 65 |
| 2019-02-23 | @ | Southern Conn. St. | L | 78 - 82 |
| 2019-02-26 | @ | Saint Rose | - | Preview |
2019 Roster
No roster data available for this season.